Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[WINTRY WALES]

The only worry is that when we get an approach from the south west is that it’s not as short lived spell of snow. We really need the blocking to hold firm up north. Not sure if we are going to see much snow to be honest before any possible attack from the west

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

5 hours ago, Cymro said:

As in a week this Sunday? I've seen the ECM charts they look tasty but will absolutely change before then so try to manage expectations. 

It seems to me that there will be snow but perhaps not the battleground frontal snow we want due to the colder air being further south. I wouldn't bank on them even reaching Wales in the next 10 days. 

But I'm happy with dry and cold for now and hope I'm wrong about the snow but past experience has taught me not to get on the smowmaggedon express those in the East of England are currently riding, Wales rarely does well on a whole from a convective easterly, 

Indeed for most of Wales it looks to be dry and cold with the possibility of snow showers across eastern parts of Wales, maybe something more organised as we go into Sunday but again for those west of high ground I wouldnt expect much.

The ECM does show the best case situation if you want snow, but In the past ive put much hope in the possibility of a snowy breakdown only for it to go wrong, for that much depends on how lows make their way into the UK. At the moment it looks like the jet will stay to our south so there's the possiblity of 'slider' lows, I would urge people not to pay much attention to snow charts for next week they will change drastically from run to run.

[andy989]

In this kind of set up it really is a case of the old cliche of get the cold in first. It may very well be dry and cold for Wales initially, but the precipitation will find us. Great eye candy charts with the snow depths but personally I have to wait until they are closer before I get excited. We are always told over on the mad thread not to take notice of precipitation charts when they are far out. Enjoy them for sure, just dont put your life's hopes and dreams on them. Get the cold in, watch it unfold, enjoy the chase. 

[Pembroke Dangler]

What I’ve been encouraged by is that on all the model runs between yesterday and so far today the cold has been shown to carry on past what was supposed to be next Wednesday but has now been moved back to Friday and I bet as we gain closer it will move into Saturday and so on so the it seems the track of the Atlantic lows is showing to take a east south east track int France as apposed to just bulldozing through the uk and as such more and more snow opportunities for us in Wales as we remain to the north of these lows. Could be some places with over a metre of snow come next Friday beacons will be the sweet spot with widely 10-20cm of snow right down to sea level. Don’t tell the family yet though

[Jayfromcardiff]

Any snow over the next few days will more than likely be light and won't give more than a dusting. It's the end of next week that should be good, obviously if things go to plan.

[keithlucky]

45 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Any snow over the next few days will more than likely be light and won't give more than a dusting. It's the end of next week that should be good, obviously if things go to plan.

Dusting for you lol

[dbaloo]

Big runs coming up today I feel...get the hard hats ready for the mod thread this afternoon/evening...could be toys thrown everywhere

Edited February 4, 2021 by dbaloo

[Gez79]

I’m hoping the 12z ecm is like the 00z run from this morning for next week wed/thur ! Cracking snow chances with the Atlantic nudging in against the cold 

[andymusic]

overnight saturday into sunday could be interesting - rain to snow event

For us it's when it all starts

Edited February 4, 2021 by andymusic

[andymusic]

12z gfs - a very snowy run even for parts of Wales

[goosey007]

4 minutes ago, andymusic said:

12z gfs - a very snowy run even for parts of Wales

Yes it is 

 

check this out ...hope the trend westward continues closer to the event

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by goosey007

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Yes it is 

 

check this out ...hope the trend westward continues closer to the event

 

Is it possible for it to trend westwards or do you think it's a bit too late?

[mattrout92]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Is it possible for it to trend westwards or do you think it's a bit too late?

Still over 48 hours away so plenty of time for it to trend Westwards

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Is it possible for it to trend westwards or do you think it's a bit too late?

saturday night/sunday morning front over Wales which will turn from rain to snow for starters - following that streamers of showers will come in from the east and certainly get to east/mid Wales over Sunday/monday/tuesday

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, mattrout92 said:

Still over 48 hours away so plenty of time for it to trend Westwards

Hopefully further west on tonight's runs. Could end up being decent if it continues.

[shunthebartlett92]

I'm looking on this thread as i'm escaping some of the doomsayers in my own regional thread  but yes indeed, loving that westwards progression, fingers crossed a nice load of snow over wales/the mids saturday eve onwards!

[snowy36]

I'm  really interested to see where this goes , we've had 3 snow falls so far this year so im not just interested to see about the snow but looking at the bigger picture for the whole month. Could we get a epic cold month. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

6 minutes ago, shunthebartlett92 said:

I'm looking on this thread as i'm escaping some of the doomsayers in my own regional thread  but yes indeed, loving that westwards progression, fingers crossed a nice load of snow over wales/the mids saturday eve onwards!

I can see it getting nasty in the MOD thread if this turns into a rain fest for the SE.

[Marcus_surfer]

There has definitely been a trend westwards for PPN. Warm sector gets into the far southeast of England on some runs with rain

Edited February 4, 2021 by Marcus_surfer

[snowy36]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I can see it getting nasty in the MOD thread if this turns into a rain fest for the SE.

They are a funny lot , they are always whinging that they never get enough rain 

[snowy36]

 I love how they take the GFS as gospel , its a pile of steaming u know what .

[Jayfromcardiff]

Met Office update:

A cold start to the period with significant wind-chill, especially in eastern areas. Snow showers are likely across eastern Scotland, England, and perhaps eastern Northern Ireland, whilst plenty of bright sunny weather is likely further west. There is a small chance of a period of heavy snowfall across parts of southern England and Wales, most likely on Tuesday. As the period progresses, remaining cold or very cold with brisk winds. The best of any sunshine will be in the west. Snow showers and attendant wintry hazards continuing to affect eastern UK at times, especially at first, whilst the risk of organised rain and snow pushing into the south-west and across southern UK will slowly increase.

[keithlucky]

2 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

I'm  really interested to see where this goes , we've had 3 snow falls so far this year so im not just interested to see about the snow but looking at the bigger picture for the whole month. Could we get a epic cold month. 

Can't  see this cold spell ending for at least 14 days .The met showing Cold being reinforced by Arctic High so all good.

[andymusic]

according to this run Wales will get buried in the Atlantic snow Wednesday night into Thursday morning - I still think though it won't be that quick

[snowy36]

1 minute ago, keithlucky said:

Can't  see this cold spell ending for at least 14 days .The met showing Cold being reinforced by Arctic High so all good.

Dont tell the GFS lovers that, because it comes out first they think its going to be correct . I think its fallen now behind the GEM.