Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[goosey007]

25 minutes ago, PompeyFC said:

some exceptional ramping going on in here lol 

highly unlikely those totals will be seen, great eye candy though 

well if you cant ramp now you never will .....probably a number of years before we see the likes of this again ....IF is happens of course!

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 hours ago, Cymro said:

As in a week this Sunday? I've seen the ECM charts they look tasty but will absolutely change before then so try to manage expectations. 

It seems to me that there will be snow but perhaps not the battleground frontal snow we want due to the colder air being further south. I wouldn't bank on them even reaching Wales in the next 10 days. 

But I'm happy with dry and cold for now and hope I'm wrong about the snow but past experience has taught me not to get on the smowmaggedon express those in the East of England are currently riding, Wales rarely does well on a whole from a convective easterly, 

I guess it's better to have something to look forward to though regardless of whether it's going to happen or not. It could be worse and we could have the Atlantic throwing rain at us constantly.

[dbaloo]

5 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I guess it's better to have something to look forward to though regardless of whether it's going to happen or not. It could be worse and we could have the Atlantic throwing rain at us constantly.

Like today ....not pleasant out there at all

[Jayfromcardiff]

Still no warnings for Wales this weekend. Looks like we'll have to wait until next week.

[dbaloo]

What's the mood like in the mad thread today?? Are they happy there's a chance of something next week or are they looking towards the end of February for a break down already?

[Marcus_surfer]

Its looking dry early next week. Chance of flurries in Eastern Wales.

[dbaloo]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Still no warnings for Wales this weekend. Looks like we'll have to wait until next week.

Wouldn't worry yet, there were no warning last weekend until 24 hours or less before if memory serves me correct 

[Coilspring]

4 minutes ago, dbaloo said:

What's the mood like in the mad thread today?? Are they happy there's a chance of something next week or are they looking towards the end of February for a break down already?

My bet is they are all squabbling about why we can't have snow in June

[goosey007]

5 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Still no warnings for Wales this weekend. Looks like we'll have to wait until next week.

they will come tomorrow if anything ....its less likely yo effect wales as yet ...be yellow at best. ....but real chance of orange and maybe even red  towards middle to end of next if some of ecm projections come off

[Coilspring]

I wonder what colour weather warnings the meto will put out for us when we do get them. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

5 minutes ago, dbaloo said:

Wouldn't worry yet, there were no warning last weekend until 24 hours or less before if memory serves me correct 

Unless a trough forms then I cant see any snow until a potential breakdown. I'd like to be proved wrong though.

[goosey007]

6 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Unless a trough forms then I cant see any snow until a potential breakdown. I'd like to be proved wrong though.

thats the only thing Jay .... high risk high reward ..but could easily go pete tong and snow to rain event..think we all want to see snow thats sticks around for a few days .....off the roads of course

 

Edited February 4, 2021 by goosey007

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, goosey007 said:

thats the only thing Jay .... high risk high reward ..but could easily go pete tong and snow to rain event..think we all want to see snow thats sticks around for a few days .....off the roads of course

 

Frustrating that any potential snow is nearly a week away. Maybe we'll have a surprise or two over the weekend.

[goosey007]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Frustrating that any potential snow is nearly a week away. Maybe we'll have a surprise or two over the weekend.

yes different models are hinting at different things over the weekend .....tonight ecm should give us better clue....

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

yes different models are hinting at different things over the weekend .....tonight ecm should give us better clue....

 

What radar do you use? I've always used the free radar on here.

[sheikhy]

8 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Frustrating that any potential snow is nearly a week away. Maybe we'll have a surprise or two over the weekend.

Surely a band or 2 of snow will make it across to wales from the north sea!!nothing significant maybe but i cant see it being completely snowless!

[soupsurfer7]

4 hours ago, keithlucky said:

1991 12incs in Wales

Was this from an easterly and was it widespread across Wales? It seems that usually easterlies just give us dry weather and maybe occasional flurries. Is it possible for the precipitation coming from the east to be so heavy that it actually gives us a good dumping?

[Coilspring]

1 minute ago, soupsurfer7 said:

Was this from an easterly and was it widespread across Wales? It seems that usually easterlies just give us dry weather and maybe occasional flurries. Is it possible for the precipitation coming from the east to be so heavy that it actually gives us a good dumping?

Wasn't end of feb early March 2018 an easterly ? Had around a foot in places and drifts everywhere. Very dry snow. 

[PompeyFC]

yes Coil, an easterly but we had the added bonus of a storm approaching from the Bay of Biscay which hit the cold air and boom !

I remember going out in it and then standing out in after grabbing a pint at the pub - was epic 

[freeze for all]

Don't worry about no precipitation in an easterly, something will crop up and as long as the cold is in place we'll see something. There was no rain forecast for here today and it hasn't stopped since 10am so features do appear from nowhere

[soupsurfer7]

Yes trouble is it feels like we’re dependent on something coming up from the south or west which brings the high risk of milder air unless the low is able to ‘slide’

[goosey007]

17 minutes ago, Coilspring said:

Wasn't end of feb early March 2018 an easterly ? Had around a foot in places and drifts everywhere. Very dry snow. 

Definitely was but it was timed perfectly though and low travelling south east  bumped into the cold air moving west.........no such luck this time initially. Next week though  longer cold spell this one with more bites of the cherry  

[Storm Emma]

11 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

Don't worry about no precipitation in an easterly, something will crop up and as long as the cold is in place we'll see something. There was no rain forecast for here today and it hasn't stopped since 10am so features do appear from nowhere

Snow showers in the east will definitely make it over to South East Wales just like in 2018 before the blizzard hit. Feb 2009 was probably the best example, snow showers piling in from the east which merged into longer spells of snow for south wales, I remember it snowed everyday for 5 consecutive days and I ended up having a week off school 

[Bartlett High]

No significant snow during the upcoming cold spell until a breakdown heads towards us from the Atlantic....until then some cold dry frosty weather will be most welcome after all the rain tbh.

[mattrout92]

I'm not convinced about seeing much snow this weekend, my gut feeling is 1-3cm in Eastern areas of Wales, but it depends where the troughs form and will probably be a nowcast event on the radar.

It's Wednesday onwards when it gets interesting, I believe there is a good chance of 10cm+ very widely, possibly much more, but it's still 6 days away so a lot of chopping and changing before then!