Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

Anyone seen the BBC forecast? Snow over Wales on Saturday and Sunday and keeps pivoting over us throughout the start of next week. They're also going for disruptive snow.

[soupsurfer7]

19 minutes ago, Storm Emma said:

I wouldn't worry about what the beeb say as they've become rubbish since they dropped the met office, not sure why people still watch them for. I'm waiting for the met office 10 day trend video it should be uploaded anytime soon now 

They use Meteogroup which is predominantly ECM.  Best to use both in my opinion so you can see where there is any cross model agreement.

[mattrout92]

33 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Anyone seen the BBC forecast? Snow over Wales on Saturday and Sunday and keeps pivoting over us throughout the start of next week. They're also going for disruptive snow.

I'm not convinced the snow will make it this far West this weekend, maybe a few light flurries in the far East of Wales. We will be looking out to the Atlantic to hopefully see systems pushing in from the South West and bumping into the cold air to produce snowfall for us, and I think that is most likely to happen between Tuesday and Friday next week. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

I'm not convinced the snow will make it this far West this weekend, maybe a few light flurries in the far East of Wales. We will be looking out to the Atlantic to hopefully see systems pushing in from the South West and bumping into the cold air to produce snowfall for us, and I think that is most likely to happen between Tuesday and Friday next week. 

I agree, maybe the BBC graphics are misleading. Is there any sign of systems pushing up from the south west? 

[Marcus_surfer]

Looks like the cold spell is brief for the southern half of the uk as low pressure is swinging in from the east. Snow risk increasing by end of next week but cuts off that easterly and midler weather eventually wins. This is how its looking at the moment and hopefully it changes. Scotland and northern england remain in cold winds with very high snow risk till at least mid feb

Edited February 3, 2021 by Marcus_surfer

[mattrout92]

11 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I agree, maybe the BBC graphics are misleading. Is there any sign of systems pushing up from the south west? 

Yep, the ECM, GEM and GFS all tried this morning with varying amounts of snow. GEM was probably the best of the bunch with around 3-10cm quite widely across the whole of Wales on Thursday

[Marcus_surfer]

To be honest any more snow  in this area will be a bonus, 2 weekends in a row and 2 decent snowfalls. I would be happy with a nice cold dry biting easterly wind over a southwesterly with drizzle anyday

[mattrout92]

This video gives a really good idea of what is happening over the next 10 days, and is far better than the BBC graphics in my opinion. Well worth a watch, and discusses what could happen with the lows that approach from the South West next week

 

[Sky Full]

5 hours ago, snefnug said:

Hello folks, 

with all the wild excitement in the MAD thread, I could do with some solid Welsh advice.  I have various holiday lets I caretake and with lockdown they’ve stood empty with me going in to check water, or heat/coolness.  Given the low temperatures forecast should I be upping the heating regime?  Are we due heavy snow again, (having just had a weekend of it) or generally cold temps.? Also I have a log delivery due next week, should I see if can bring it foreword?

I also have elderly people I look out for so trying to plan whether extra stockpile of tinned food necessary.  Am I going overboard?

Hi snefnug.  In addition to the previous excellent answer .... aside from water in outbuildings and external taps (which should have special attention and should be isolated from within if possible) you aren’t really at risk internally as long as temperatures remain above about -1C.  If the outlook changes to several days of very cold temperatures (below -1C all day and night) then internal pipes of unheated houses can freeze so keep the heating on low all the time.  If we get low temperatures together with very strong winds this increases the risk of cold penetration into unlined roof spaces, so floor-laid insulation in lofts may not be enough if there are exposed water tanks up there.  I don’t think we’re expecting a big freeze like that but keep an eye on the forecasts because you never know with an easterly.....

[Marcus_surfer]

[Loadsa2000]

lcould be on again sunday

[Loadsa2000]

Could be a bit around Saturday as well

[Loadsa2000]

Book your tickets here for next week

Edited February 3, 2021 by Loadsa2000

[Storm Emma]

4 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

lcould be on again sunday

Yep meto has me down for snow on Sunday, when was the last time we had 3 consecutive snowfalls on a Sunday? Also shows now for Tuesday as well. 

[Loadsa2000]

4 minutes ago, Storm Emma said:

Yep meto has me down for snow on Sunday, when was the last time we had 3 consecutive snowfalls on a Sunday? Also shows now for Tuesday as well. 

Met latest updates inc sunday for wales

Dont look at  Emmas post  Jay you should of moved further up the valleys grey day for us

Outlook for Friday to Sunday:

A band of rain moving east through the country early on Friday. Saturday cloudy but mostly dry but a few wintry showers on Sunday. Turning much colder through the weekend.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Wed 3 Feb 2021

UK long range weather forecast

Monday 8 Feb - Wednesday 17 Feb

An area of high pressure looks to build to the north, and it will likely feel cold or very cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. Snow showers are possible across the country during the early part of the period, but most widespread and heaviest for northeastern areas. Drier weather to follow, with widespread overnight frosts, although wintry showers can still feed in from the east coast. Any organised areas of cloud and precipitation arriving from the southwest will not progress very far into the country as a result of the high pressure. However, they can bring the potential for widespread snow across areas where they bump into cold air. Patches of ice and other disruptive wintry hazards remain a possibility for all areas.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Wed 3 Feb 2021

Wednesday 17 Feb - Wednesday 3 Mar

Confidence is low for this period from mid-February onwards, but conditions could turn cold and dry towards the end of the month. Less cold and milder interludes are still a possibility due to weather systems arriving from the Atlantic. These systems could bring a risk of disruptive snowfall over the boundary between mild and cold air. Disruptive wintry hazards continue to be a greater than normal threat during this period, and snowfall is a possibility for all areas, but is most likely over eastern parts of the country. Precipitation amounts are generally likely to be lower than average.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Wed 3 Feb 2021

Edited February 3, 2021 by Loadsa2000

[Loadsa2000]

[pyrotech]

Its a well known fact, that here in UK, we need the cold in first. We have no issues generally for precipitation.

However, in Wales and Southwest England we are in prime position, for breakdown or attempted breakdown scenarios.

These of course can be all or nothing, but good example is 2018, when Storm Emma crept into South Wales and dumped lots of the whitestuff over us.

Next week has opportunity for similar conditions

Embedded cold over UK, slider low pressure nudging into the cold.

The beg question is will Wednesdays low slip to far South, into France?

If so i expect the low behind it, to push a little further into UK.

Perfect conditions are these lows to just nudge in and not go to far North. its currently a viable option.

If they do push too far North it would be heavy snow followed by sleet / rain.

Either way next week looks like we will all see some snow and possibly disruptive sustained snow.

[andymusic]

[andymusic]

[mattrout92]

Another snowy GEM

[Pembs458]

it does look to me that if any snow is going to happen next week, then around Wednesday/Thursday seems the most likely day for a push from the Atlantic.  Hopefully it won’t make too much progress N/E though, as that’ll turn things wet for some of us. 

[dbaloo]

Still looking promising then

[Ian Ballinger]

Nothing predicted for Porthmadog?

[Jayfromcardiff]

Snow pushing into mid and se Wales on Saturday by the looks of it.

[keithlucky]

1 minute ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Snow pushing into mid and se Wales on Saturday by the looks of it.

Yes I use the South east LOL Wales will get a covering ,more to come Sunday.