Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[valejack]

53 minutes ago, MR_E said:

Over in the model thread.. there's a lot of hype with the GFS 12z run for historic snow in the UK. South West Wales looks to miss out with anything substantial. Hopefully we can grab a decent drop considering the rest of the UK seems to be!

Think they are ramping a bit early in the mod thread. Long way between now and Sunday and many model  changes to come. 

[dbaloo]

And so another hunt begins.....possibly with a very good outcome

[RhysWales]

ECM liking the idea of an easterly from the weekend! This would be a little chilly...

 

[mattrout92]

22 minutes ago, RhysWales said:

ECM liking the idea of an easterly from the weekend! This would be a little chilly...

 

What we want is that low in the Atlantic just to the South of Greenland to slide into the South of the UK. On this run it slides a bit too far South into the Bay of Biscay / France, but it wouldn't take much to get an some decent snowfall out of it!

Still, by the end of the run, pretty much all of Wales is under snowcover:

[RhysWales]

11 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

What we want is that low in the Atlantic just to the South of Greenland to slide into the South of the UK. On this run it slides a bit too far South into the Bay of Biscay / France, but it wouldn't take much to get an some decent snowfall out of it!

Still, by the end of the run, pretty much all of Wales is under snowcover:

Definitely. I'd be confident though that at some point we would hit the jackpot, given the energy coming off the south of Greenland that there would be a few bites at the cherry! Just got to get it in firstly though. I'm getting a little excited tonight I'll be honest. Time to put it down for a bit 

[LJ1224]

Even Derek said the S word..

[goosey007]

Latest ecm run has the majority of snow towards the east....plenty of time for changes though...Gem and Gfs and ukmo have low sliding over wales giving lots of snow.....I guess its case of get the cold in then worry about the snow details ....

[andymusic]

14 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

Latest ecm run has the majority of snow towards the east....plenty of time for changes though...Gem and Gfs and ukmo have low sliding over wales giving lots of snow.....I guess its case of get the cold in then worry about the snow details ....

yep - once we're in the freezer, then the snow shall come

Edited February 1, 2021 by andymusic

[keithlucky]

3 hours ago, dbaloo said:

And so another hunt begins.....possibly with a very good outcome

No hunt we going for kill. The patience game starts,if it goes similar to 1991 East UK get plastered ,You see showers forming ,on a keen easterly wind showers reaching east Wales,this is when fax charts becomes vital.We can see trough forming and possible L.P. forming on any trough .Last time L.P. Formed in South of France  bringing Wales 6inches of snow.So from Friday fax reports is a our friend.

Edited February 1, 2021 by keithlucky

[gareth moo]

Hello all - late to the party this year.

Fair play, it's been an intriguing and sometimes agonising (as always) chase this winter but not without reward over the last fortnight. Amazing that the Met didn't look at the 90% of output predicting Sunday's snow. I can't help thinking that if it was England impacted, that it would have been flagged.

 The nutters in the mad thread seem to have gone into hyper mode this evening about a freezing Easterly a week away.  Usually, i would await predicting the wrist slitting when it all went Pete Tong in the space of 12 hours. However, i get the feeling that with all the models starting to align, that we are about to feel something remarkably cold.  

Easterlies are often dry and frigid for us, so we need to keep a sharp eye on sliding and stalling battleground fronts from the West. That's our golden ticket and decent chances i would say. Whatever the outcome, this looks like a great week for model watching.  

[keithlucky]

1 minute ago, gareth moo said:

Hello all - late to the party this year.

Fair play, it's been an intriguing and sometimes agonising (as always) chase this winter but not without reward over the last fortnight. Amazing that the Met didn't look at the 90% of output predicting Sunday's snow. I can't help thinking that if it was England impacted, that it would have been flagged.

 The nutters in the mad thread seem to have gone into hyper mode this evening about a freezing Easterly a week away.  Usually, i would await predicting the wrist slitting when it all went Pete Tong in the space of 12 hours. However, i get the feeling that with all the models starting to align, that we are about to feel something remarkably cold.  

Easterlies are often dry and frigid for us, so we need to keep a sharp eye on sliding and stalling battleground fronts from the West. That's our golden ticket and decent chances i would say. Whatever the outcome, this looks like a great week for model watching.  

Start of a Frigid easterly favours the east, warm sea frigid air gives them snow making machine off the North sea,so initially favours them we get crumbs we can see what develops from there for us in the West strong breeze will help send snow showers west wards.Across Wales.

[andymusic]

we have this showing for next monday - and the guys in the mad thread are annoyed again - you just can't please some buggers lol

[blackrose73]

Dreadful IMBYism in the model thread tonight from SE England members. Possibly the worst I've ever seen it, with the SE being mentioned in nearly every post. The only model analysis I could see was specifically concerned with SE England!

[Storm Emma]

Seems like I caused a bit of a stir in the mod thread, they're a sensitive bunch in the south east aren't they 

[blackrose73]

10 minutes ago, Storm Emma said:

Seems like I caused a bit of a stir in the mod thread, they're a sensitive bunch in the south east aren't they 

I did the same in there some years back and got much the same responses as you did, it's pointless. They respond with sarcasm and then insist they are just stating what the models are showing. Well yes, but they express in terms of southeast England only.

[mattrout92]

9 minutes ago, Storm Emma said:

Seems like I caused a bit of a stir in the mod thread, they're a sensitive bunch in the south east aren't they 

It's mad how upset they get over one run, it's supposed to be the model discussion thread, not the toy throwing thread. Several other models recently have shown them to have 20cm+ in the South East, but they seem to forget about those and take each run as gospel! At this stage it's all about trends

[Coilspring]

9 minutes ago, Storm Emma said:

Seems like I caused a bit of a stir in the mod thread, they're a sensitive bunch in the south east aren't they 

Yup, you've upset the snowflakes now and not the ones they are praying for. They are so overly focused on specifics in there. How can they predict something that changes constantly by looking at algorithms produced from previous events? I'm staying in this thread anyway wheres there's a bit more common sense. And its less bitey.

[Storm Emma]

1 minute ago, blackrose73 said:

I did the same in there some years back and got much the same responses as you did, it's pointless. They respond with sarcasm and then insist they are just stating what the models are showing. Well yes, but they express in terms of southeast England only.

I know mate the IMBYism from the south east members has been shocking this winter, before I signed up I was a lurker for many years and I have to say the IMBYism is the worst it's ever been, they may as well rename the thread the south east model output discussion. 

[A Frayed Knot]

That mad thread is so English only.. All a bunch of Nathan Rao in there... Express doughnut supporters I want more snow IMBY than yours. Oh look Wales is getting more than us so what.... Toys out of the pram time in there

[Storm Emma]

2 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

It's mad how upset they get over one run, it's supposed to be the model discussion thread, not the toy throwing thread. Several other models recently have shown them to have 20cm+ in the South East, but they seem to forget about those and take each run as gospel! At this stage it's all about trends

The toy throwing and overreactions from them is honestly laughable, they also seem to get very jealous when other areas in the uk get snow and they don't.

[Storm Emma]

6 minutes ago, Coilspring said:

Yup, you've upset the snowflakes now and not the ones they are praying for. They are so overly focused on specifics in there. How can they predict something that changes constantly by looking at algorithms produced from previous events? I'm staying in this thread anyway wheres there's a bit more common sense. And its less bitey.

I just put a few of them on my ignore list it should make the thread a bit more bearable 

[dbaloo]

Mild here this morning..might get the bbq out if it stops raining

Edited February 2, 2021 by dbaloo
Early morning spelling mistakes

[Loadsa2000]

latest long range met office quite bullish for cold and i am liking the battleground scenario as long as it happens above wales 

UK long range weather forecast

Saturday 6 Feb - Monday 15 Feb

Remaining unsettled for much of the UK on Saturday with showers and longer spells of precipitation, wintry in places, especially in northern areas with a risk of heavy snowfall. High pressure then looks to gradually build to the north, which will introduce cold and dry weather across the UK, with widespread overnight frosts, though wintry showers could still feed in from the east coast at times. It will likely feel cold, or rather cold, especially in brisk easterly winds. Icy stretches along with other disruptive wintry hazards, remain a possibility for all areas. There also remains the possibility of milder and wetter conditions fringing the far northwest at times, along with organised areas of cloud and precipitation making limited progress inland from the southwest.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Feb 2021

Monday 15 Feb - Monday 1 Mar

Confidence is low for mid-February onwards however similar conditions look most likely with high pressure remaining to the north of the UK, bringing overall colder than average conditions and below average precipitation amounts. Throughout this period the risk of wintry hazards continues to be greater than normal with snowfall possible for all areas, but most likely in eastern areas. There remains the possibility of less cold interludes occurring from the west and southwest, bringing wetter and milder conditions. In such instances, at the boundary between cold and mild air masses, there remains the risk of disruptive snowfall.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 2 Feb 2021

Edited February 2, 2021 by Loadsa2000

[andymusic]

happy groundhog day to all - will it be another 6 weeks of winter or not?

Groundhog Day: Bill Murray 'hated' working on the movie and was bitten by co-star | Films | Entertainment | Express.co.uk

WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

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GROUNDHOG DAY is one of Bill Murray's most recognisable family movies, and is still shown to this day to commemorate the holiday of the same name - but Murray hated working on the film as a number of...

 

Edited February 2, 2021 by andymusic

[Coilspring]

24 minutes ago, andymusic said:

happy groundhog day to all - will it be another 6 weeks of winter or not?

Groundhog Day: Bill Murray 'hated' working on the movie and was bitten by co-star | Films | Entertainment | Express.co.uk

WWW.EXPRESS.CO.UK

---

GROUNDHOG DAY is one of Bill Murray's most recognisable family movies, and is still shown to this day to commemorate the holiday of the same name - but Murray hated working on the film as a number of...

 

Apparently the groundhog did not see a shadow so an early start to spring it is.