Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[keithlucky]

33 minutes ago, dbaloo said:

Ecm rolling out about 6.....hopefully something decent to come from it!

So very cold air moving towards the UK this weekend as expected. Tommorow back to wrist slashing. Zonal reversal is inevitable ,until Pv reorganised itself.Models cannot cope with reversal situations.

[Coilspring]

Well, a very vague forecast on BBC Countryfile I thought. Probably reflecting the uncertainty on what's gonna to transpire this week. However, been a lovely day and even if we didn't get as much snow as we would have liked, it was nice to see it and be out in it. 

[Pembroke Dangler]

Something tells me if the Latest ECM run is to be believed we could be looking at battleground wales again with lots of snow potential after next weekend could be some big dumps

[dbaloo]

2 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Something tells me if the Latest ECM run is to be believed we could be looking at battleground wales again with lots of snow potential after next weekend could be some big dumps

There's a joke in there somewhere but I'm resisting

[Pembroke Dangler]

1 minute ago, dbaloo said:

There's a joke in there somewhere but I'm resisting

Yeah the ECM it’s been a joke of a model this past few days it showed sw gales on this mornings run all over the shop it’s been recently

[Bartlett High]

Fronts moving in off the Atlantic into the cold air......could be very interesting indeed but we shall see.

[blackrose73]

Snowing again, albeit lightly and wet snow.

Edited January 31, 2021 by blackrose73

[ancientsolar]

2 minutes ago, blackrose73 said:

Snowing again, albeit lightly and wet snow.

interesting to see that intensify over land

[dyl232]

Im still confused why the yellow warnings are out? Even for most on the coasts!! Temps are gonna be even higher than todays

very strange by the Met!!

[andymusic]

snowing again here too

[Gee]

Well that was an exciting day. Looks like most of us saw a few hours of falling snow,  with some lucky ones having a nice covering too, to enjoy.

Onwards to the next hunt we all go. 

[Simon SWales]

Ice day today in Brynmawr. 

[goosey007]

posted the below over in the model thread .......but relevant for us and one to watch over the coming days ! ...ps the bbc weekly forecast is a load of rubbish from thursday onwards ..stale data! ignored broader NH synoptics!

 

 

Finally cross model agreement .....ecm just had to back track into line and thankfully it has this morning. Now we need consistency over next 24 hours or so i.e nothing jumping ship!.....then we can begin to talk about where it will snow and how much ! Exciting times for coldies think ill crack a bottle open on friday if this comes off and heavy and widespread snow is forecast t -72 !

At the moment somewhere around the 07th/08th Feb could be historic for most of country GFS showing days of snow potential.....south east primed but not exclusively which is good for the rest of us. 2018 delivered massively for me in the south wales, so I don't mind if others get some significant action this time round....swings and roundabouts and all that!

need to keep watching as just out of the reliable ......so JFF at this stage .....

 

 

 

[Snowyowl9]

Yesterday east wind was just so much different and dry as 1.1c max and no sign of any thaw.

Dull this morning looks a tad more misty 0.5c currently.

Min -0.4c no sun means no thaw.

 

[Cymro]

31 minutes ago, goosey007 said:

posted the below over in the model thread .......but relevant for us and one to watch over the coming days ! ...ps the bbc weekly forecast is a load of rubbish from thursday onwards ..stale data! ignored broader NH synoptics!

 

 

Finally cross model agreement .....ecm just had to back track into line and thankfully it has this morning. Now we need consistency over next 24 hours or so i.e nothing jumping ship!.....then we can begin to talk about where it will snow and how much ! Exciting times for coldies think ill crack a bottle open on friday if this comes off and heavy and widespread snow is forecast t -72 !

At the moment somewhere around the 07th/08th Feb could be historic for most of country GFS showing days of snow potential.....south east primed but not exclusively which is good for the rest of us. 2018 delivered massively for me in the south wales, so I don't mind if others get some significant action this time round....swings and roundabouts and all that!

need to keep watching as just out of the reliable ......so JFF at this stage .....

 

 

 

 

It will be a notable cold spell no doubt. Would be great if we could sneak snow cover here out West before it get’s going because there isn’t much more frustrating here than a fortnight of snow cover sustaining temperatures but absolutely bone dry. 

Sorry for the imbyism but the white persistent lack of precipitation Swansea Westwards illustrades why Easterlies do nothing for my excitement. Get a good Nwstly for a day or two before and I will crack open the champagne and join in the party. 

For context, yesterday produced more snow here than the famous Beast. 

[Sky Full]

46 minutes ago, Cymro said:

It will be a notable cold spell no doubt. Would be great if we could sneak snow cover here out West before it get’s going because there isn’t much more frustrating here than a fortnight of snow cover sustaining temperatures but absolutely bone dry. 

Sorry for the imbyism but the white persistent lack of precipitation Swansea Westwards illustrades why Easterlies do nothing for my excitement. Get a good Nwstly for a day or two before and I will crack open the champagne and join in the party. 

For context, yesterday produced more snow here than the famous Beast. 

Well here’s a chart which might put a smile on your face!  

 

That’s the Swiss weather model (where, in fairness, they do know a bit about snow...!) for the 10th February showing an impossible (?) amount of snow over Wales.   This is the result of cold air in the east battling the slightly milder air in the west but I’m not for one minute suggesting it could happen like this.  Or could it......?       

 

[dbaloo]

1 hour ago, Sky Full said:

Well here’s a chart which might put a smile on your face!  

 

That’s the Swiss weather model (where, in fairness, they do know a bit about snow...!) for the 10th February showing an impossible (?) amount of snow over Wales.   This is the result of cold air in the east battling the slightly milder air in the west but I’m not for one minute suggesting it could happen like this.  Or could it......?       

 

Exciting times potentially lay ahead...plus the 11th of Feb is some guys birthday so I'm pretty sure he would be happy having that much laying snow!!!

[keithlucky]

Are we going to get Thames streamer psml.

[Marcus_surfer]

A few pictures and a video from yesterday's snowfall. 2 miles down the road it did snow but no accumulation at all.

[andymusic]

next sunday's snow lol - become a weekly fixture lol

[clem]

1 hour ago, Marcus_surfer said:

A few pictures and a video from yesterday's snowfall. 2 miles down the road it did snow but no accumulation at all.

Hi Marcus,

great pics, If those are from your home, my mother lives about 5 doors away from you in number 20 and I used to climb the trees that used to stand where your house is now :)

[andymusic]

[MR_E]

Over in the model thread.. there's a lot of hype with the GFS 12z run for historic snow in the UK. South West Wales looks to miss out with anything substantial. Hopefully we can grab a decent drop considering the rest of the UK seems to be!

[andymusic]

8 minutes ago, MR_E said:

Over in the model thread.. there's a lot of hype with the GFS 12z run for historic snow in the UK. South West Wales looks to miss out with anything substantial. Hopefully we can grab a decent drop considering the rest of the UK seems to be!

the amount of deep cold should allow Wales to benefit when the Atlantic attempts a fight back - but some parts of eastern/mid Wales will get hit initially too

[mattrout92]

Cross Model Agreement for an Easterly flow this weekend as things stand, the GEM even has a slider event early next week leaving the whole of the UK covered in snow. This would do nicely!