Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Fujita scale]

1 hour ago, andymusic said:

latest harmonie for tomoz

D'eja vu Andy as per last Sunday ?

[andymusic]

Just now, Fujita scale said:

D'eja vu Andy as per last Sunday ?

not quite the same - as it was overnight last weekend and the -5 850 temps were already over us properly - but still a reasonable set up for snow tomorrow anyway - we shall see

[keithlucky]

So it like patchy sleet /snow spreading Across Wales giving covering in places .Monday heavy snow quickly turning back to rain over central Wales North Wales.

[Jayfromcardiff]

Is the ECM due out at 6pm?

[AlexThe Great]

What time is this potential ppn likely to make inroads toward south wales ?

[andymusic]

3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Is the ECM due out at 6pm?

yep

[andymusic]

2 minutes ago, AlexThe Great said:

What time is this potential ppn likely to make inroads toward south wales ?

should start coming in between about 9am - midday

[Marcus_surfer]

Thats if it front even makes it to South Wales!

[butters]

with people talking about a beast from the east again what sort of date are we looking at if is going to happen anybody know ?

 

[keithlucky]

14 minutes ago, andymusic said:

should start coming in between about 9am - midday

After 3pm according to met later the better.

[Buzz]

52 minutes ago, Gee said:

Lots of excitement back on yet again in the mod thread,  until the next run...

Problem I always feel with the beast from the east, majority of Wales misses out on the deep snow. Then the fronts move in with the warm air from our West, hits the cold, but again Wales are on the wrong side of the line and gets rain, whilst parts of England get buried. 

Not always, but more often than not. 

That's incorrect, south Wales and the south west of England have had some exceptional blizzards from easterly setups - this occurs when an area of low pressure skirts along the channel or, better still, fronts encroach from the west but stall with a NW/SE or W/E tilt and drag in even more cold air; the stalled front(s) then dump a lot of snow, often over a period of 24 or 48 hours. In the latter situation the fronts are then pushed back west or, if unlucky, eventually make their way east and can eventually bring in milder air.

[Buzz]

Just now, keithlucky said:

After 3pm according to met later the better.

The timing makes no difference, if the air is cold enough and other variables are favourable then the precipitation will fall as snow irrespective of the time of day or night.

[bradymk]

Latest ECM has precipitation coming into Pembrokeshire at 10am, falling as snow away from the immediate coast.

It then moves across most of South Wales, again snow away from immediate coasts.

1-3cm across most of South Wales. Milder air creeping in later in day turning precip back to rain in Pembrokeshire and coastal south.

All models showing different solutions, ECM and Harmonie look the best for us all. Euro4 and UKV have nothing but they have both been poor recently.

[keithlucky]

19 minutes ago, butters said:

with people talking about a beast from the east again what sort of date are we looking at if is going to happen anybody know ?

 

Next Friday Day time max 1c getting colder and colder keen wind bringing snow showers east to west across UK .Set for at least 7days Read my comments earlier we become increasing chance of heavy snow from south west.

Edited January 30, 2021 by keithlucky

[Jayfromcardiff]

4 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Latest ECM has precipitation coming into Pembrokeshire at 10am, falling as snow away from the immediate coast.

It then moves across most of South Wales, again snow away from immediate coasts.

1-3cm across most of South Wales. Milder air creeping in later in day turning precip back to rain in Pembrokeshire and coastal south.

All models showing different solutions, ECM and Harmonie look the best for us all. Euro4 and UKV have nothing but they have both been poor recently.

BBC saying snow only on high ground lol. I'll just look out the window tomorrow.

[mattrout92]

This is an idea of what the snow depths may look like if the ECM is correct for tomorrow:

A dusting for a good chunk of South Wales

[bradymk]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

BBC saying snow only on high ground lol. I'll just look out the window tomorrow.

Yes potentially for accumulations. If the front comes in as per ECM though, I think we’ll both see falling snow at least tomorrow. Light mainly. Let’s hope it’s right and harmonie. Arome in same camp.

Not expecting any accumulation in Cardiff.

Edited January 30, 2021 by bradymk

[mattrout92]

Harmonie Snow Depths for tomorrow:

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

31 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Yes potentially for accumulations. If the front comes in as per ECM though, I think we’ll both see falling snow at least tomorrow. Light mainly. Let’s hope it’s right and harmonie. Arome in same camp.

Not expecting any accumulation in Cardiff.

I agree, seems like fairly light precipitation with sleet/snow turning gradually to rain on low ground as the day progresses. Thats going by the ECM at least.  Might be why the Met Office have not issued a snow warning for tomorrow because while there may be snow falling its unlikely to accumilate away from hills.

Edited January 30, 2021 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[mattrout92]

UKV has moved very slightly towards the ECM / Harmonie for tomorrow, and brings a few light sleet / snow showers inland. Probably wouldn't lead to any accumulations though

 

[bradymk]

38 minutes ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:

I agree, seems like fairly light precipitation with sleet/snow turning gradually to rain on low ground as the day progresses. Thats going by the ECM at least.  Might be why the Met Office have not issued a snow warning for tomorrow because while there may be snow falling its unlikely to accumilate away from hills.

Agree! All the warnings are impact assessed and even though it’s uncertain still, even the best case sees temporary or limited accumulations. 

I’m not too fussed though with that, would be nice to see some falling snow in the daytime at least, accumulation or not.

In hindsight, the Met were a little off with their warning today too in regards to Wales but a very difficult forecast. 
 

 

[JamesL]

I did ask earlier but think it may have got lost 

Anyome have the models take on tomorrow’s snow in the S of Wales? 

 

Thank you 

James 

[WINTRY WALES]

15 minutes ago, JamesL said:

I did ask earlier but think it may have got lost 

Anyome have the models take on tomorrow’s snow in the S of Wales? 

 

Thank you 

James 

Yes....nothing to write home about what so ever

[mattrout92]

14 minutes ago, JamesL said:

I did ask earlier but think it may have got lost 

Anyome have the models take on tomorrow’s snow in the S of Wales? 

 

Thank you 

James 

It's still a little uncertain, but it looks like there may some wet snow tomorrow but nothing significant. Probably a centimetre or two in lucky spots

[dbaloo]

On a different topic..in the last thread it took us 4 years to hit 396 pages..its taken us a month month hit 99 (unless this post takes us to 100)..great to see so much activity in here and hopefully our thread can go from strength to strength.

Some great posts in here over the last month!