Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

37 minutes ago, andymusic said:

latest harmonie

Snow looks too extensive. Met Office aren't going for widespread snowfall.

[Jackfrost]

Really remarkable difference between the forecast for Caerphilly town, @Jayfromcardiff, and the forecast for my area, five miles up the road and still at a pretty modest elevation.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Jackfrost

[Jayfromcardiff]

9 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Really remarkable difference between the forecast for Caerphilly town, @Jayfromcardiff, and the forecast for my area, five miles up the road and still at a pretty modest elevation.

Do you think I'll see any snow? Hopefully we all get a covering?

[Jackfrost]

14 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Do you think I'll see any snow? Hopefully we all get a covering?

I think you'll at least see some falling, but in terms of accumulations it's so dependent on altitude that I'm not even certain I'll see settling.

Honestly, if the UK and Ireland kept their oceanic climate but were a thousand miles further north and had generally greater elevation, our winters would be almost as snowy as Hokkaido and Montreal and without the worries over marginality.

Edited January 29, 2021 by Jackfrost

[liantellis]

If you have an iphone - go to your compass, it will tell you there your current elevation! 

[Jayfromcardiff]

51 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

I think you'll at least see some falling, but in terms of accumulations it's so dependent on altitude that I'm not even certain I'll see settling.

Honestly, if the UK and Ireland kept their oceanic climate but were a thousand miles further north and had generally greater elevation, our winters would be almost as snowy as Hokkaido and Montreal and without the worries over marginality.

Probably a high ground affair for the next few days then.

[Ian Price]

AROME at 10am Sat

[Ian Price]

Then at 1pm

[mattrout92]

I'm not expecting much in South Wales over the next few days unless you live over 200m, maybe some sleet or wet snow at times but not amounting to very much.

What is interesting is that there's a growing confidence as we go into the second week of February we could see High Pressure build to the North allowing a cold North Easterly/ Easterly flow to set up. Wales doesn't tend to do great in terms of snow out of Easterly periods like this at first, but as we proved in 2018, if we can get some proper cold in place over a period of a week or so, and you then get a disturbance move in from the South West (just like Storm Emma in 2018) which bumps into the cold air, we can end up with some really significant, non marginal snow here. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

6 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

I'm not expecting much in South Wales over the next few days unless you live over 200m, maybe some sleet or wet snow at times but not amounting to very much.

What is interesting is that there's a growing confidence as we go into the second week of February we could see High Pressure build to the North allowing a cold North Easterly/ Easterly flow to set up. Wales doesn't tend to do great in terms of snow out of Easterly periods like this at first, but as we proved in 2018, if we can get some proper cold in place over a period of a week or so, and you then get a disturbance move in from the South West (just like Storm Emma in 2018) which bumps into the cold air, we can end up with some really significant, non marginal snow here. 

I agree. I also don't understand why there's a warning out for next week as it looks far too mild for snow.

[freeze for all]

22 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Probably a high ground affair for the next few days then.

Deff a high ground affair for any settling or disruptive snow, I can remember loads of times over the years where we had rain but the hills behind would b white, it hasn't happened for years but this will b 1 of those occasions

[Jayfromcardiff]

10 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

Deff a high ground affair for any settling or disruptive snow, I can remember loads of times over the years where we had rain but the hills behind would b white, it hasn't happened for years but this will b 1 of those occasions

We can always hope for upgrades, it's happened before and will happen again.

[andymusic]

middle of next week according to arpege - not sure about that - but that's alot of snow

[Marcus_surfer]

Simular setups have indeed delivered to even the coast in these setups. Unfortunately timing of these systems doesn't look great and therefore is occurring during day light hours when its warmer than if they were pushing in during the night. 

Sunday does look colder and indeed the chance for coastal sleet/snow is slightly higher

[goosey007]

Less confused today heavy rain....with the chance to see some falling snow tomorrow afternoon ...no accumulations though just the wrong side of marginal this time. My partners parents are from brynmawr and there is for a pasting by the looks of it 8 hours of heavy snow...wow and Sunday more comming in ! Would love to take a trip up .....damn lockdown 

[dbaloo]

No-one staying up tonight then lamppost watching? Has snow for blackwood tomorrow from 11am onwards with the met office, 9 am bbc. Either way I'm still out for my weekend long run, but I think its going to be a very much hit or miss tomorrow weather wise

[andymusic]

here's harmonie for sunday now

[Notty]

2 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I agree. I also don't understand why there's a warning out for next week as it looks far too mild for snow.

Backside covering perhaps?

[snowy36]

Loving the Arpege tonight , lots of chances 

[Jayfromcardiff]

55 minutes ago, dbaloo said:

No-one staying up tonight then lamppost watching? Has snow for blackwood tomorrow from 11am onwards with the met office, 9 am bbc. Either way I'm still out for my weekend long run, but I think its going to be a very much hit or miss tomorrow weather wise

Don't fancy watching heavy rain lol.

[Gee]

40 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Don't fancy watching heavy rain lol.

Odds must be stacked against us if  Jay isn't doing an all nighter

[Gee]

45 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

Loving the Arpege tonight , lots of chances 

It is looking good for the week ahead. Not sure I trust it though.

[mattrout92]

ECM estimated snow depths for Saturday:

and Sunday:

[Coilspring]

37 minutes ago, Gee said:

Odds must be stacked against us if  Jay isn't doing an all nighter

He's out in his snow plough. Anyway, you've gotta love this weather. I'm pretty sure most paces in South Wales will see snow, not just mid Wales. Looking like an exciting week. 

[dbaloo]

Juat watched the BBC forecast..so much uncertainty still!!!!!!!