Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

ECM has snow further South on Saturday:

 

Sunday looking good too:

 

Could end up being a Wales and the SW event at this rate.

[mattrout92]

Here's the 15Z UKV for Saturday:

 

Edited January 28, 2021 by mattrout92

[PompeyFC]

think it will be marginal at mo away from heights, be nice to be in mid wales satdee though I reckon

[keithlucky]

44 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Could end up being a Wales and the SW event at this rate.

Slush fest comes to mind .This is more marginal than last week's snow.

Edited January 28, 2021 by keithlucky

[Jayfromcardiff]

24 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Slush fest comes to mind .This is more marginal than last week's snow.

That's true, maybe a dusting then lol.

[snowy36]

The time of the day that worries me , i think the temps look slightly lower than they looked and the odds has come in for south wales but i think it needs to come south a bit more. U never know.

[keithlucky]

4 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

The time of the day that worries me , i think the temps look slightly lower than they looked and the odds has come in for south wales but i think it needs to come south a bit more. U never know.

At least even in the heavier burst we see snow as evaporating cooling occurs with the heavier bursts.

[blackrose73]

Not overly confident on this system on Saturday, but plenty of time for southward corrections yet, so fingers crossed. If it becomes a consistent trend over the next few runs it may end up being very interesting. As it stands now, nothing much to be terribly excited about south of the heads of the valleys imo.

[goosey007]

Any body else confused about the weekends snow scenario? It keeps changing with every run model I look at.....common sense tells me I'll see snow falling but not settling .....just feels on the wrong side of marginal. ....

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, goosey007 said:

Any body else confused about the weekends snow scenario? It keeps changing with every run model I look at.....common sense tells me I'll see snow falling but not settling .....just feels on the wrong side of marginal. ....

It's going to change alot between now and Saturday. The forecast for here is going for heavy snow and then sleet on Saturday morning but it keeps changing.

[goosey007]

9 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

It's going to change alot between now and Saturday. The forecast for here is going for heavy snow and then sleet on Saturday morning but it keeps changing.

Heavy rain and 6 degrees on the beeb in risca.......but that dosent match the graphics ! Crazy 

[Coilspring]

Well tbh in Risca it would be. Low altitude and the Bristol channel bound to have an effect.

[soupsurfer7]

I suppose one benefit of it being so marginal is that a lot of us might see some very big snowflakes for a while  even if it doesn’t settle

[JamesL]

An exciting weekend end coming up

As expected the models are slowly correcting south

The best chances for nationwide snow are growing on Sunday now as temps even in the Capital will struggle just a few degrees above freezing 

Saturday will depend more on elevation than Sunday but somewhere along the Heads of the Valleys should score on both days with Saturdays snow topped up nicely on Sunday before later Monday we see a thaw set in 

Then it looks by the following weekend temps take another dive with the snow risk increasing again 

Mark my word I think the warning area will start to edge south esp for Sunday’s event 

All in all a very exciting few days coming up! 

[Bartlett High]

Interesting

[mattrout92]

1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

Interesting

Definitely interesting, it's not the only model showing that either for next weekend. Think February could be an interesting month

[Bartlett High]

4 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

Definitely interesting, it's not the only model showing that either for next weekend. Think February could be an interesting month

Indeed! I said earlier Sth.Wales would only see rain this weekend, I would gladly like to be proved wrong here. 

[JamesL]

1 minute ago, Bartlett High said:

Indeed! I said earlier Sth.Wales would only see rain this weekend, I would gladly like to be proved wrong here. 

I think you’ll be swayed by close of play tomorrow

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, JamesL said:

I think you’ll be swayed by close of play tomorrow

You reckon we'll see decent snowfall mate?

[JamesL]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

You reckon we'll see decent snowfall mate?

More places in S Wales will see snow later on Sunday overnight into Monday 

It won’t be crisp and even, rather slushy and transient and on sat and we may have to rely on evaporative cooling more than on Sunday away from 150m asl where snow will fall widely on sat 

But we all know that knife edge snow events surprise even the pros and they can also provide quite severe conditions very quickly. I’ve seen heavy rain with flooded roads turn to heavy settling snow which laid down 6” in just a few hours when I lived in Kent. 5 miles away the Precip stayed as rain. Crazy!!

[snowy36]

10 minutes ago, JamesL said:

More places in S Wales will see snow later on Sunday overnight into Monday 

It won’t be crisp and even, rather slushy and transient and on sat and we may have to rely on evaporative cooling more than on Sunday away from 150m asl where snow will fall widely on sat 

But we all know that knife edge snow events surprise even the pros and they can also provide quite severe conditions very quickly. I’ve seen heavy rain with flooded roads turn to heavy settling snow which laid down 6” in just a few hours when I lived in Kent. 5 miles away the Precip stayed as rain. Crazy!!

Lets see if we have another upgrade on harmonie tonight.

[snowy36]

A interesting one for tuesday , i dont like the Icon model though. Its a bit rubbish.

Edited January 28, 2021 by snowy36

[JamesL]

10 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

Lets see if we have another upgrade on harmonie tonight.

Not a fan of that model tbh 

The hi-res ECM pretty much nailed the last one. I’d stick to that personally but it’s always nice to see the others fall into line as the event approaches 

[JamesL]

7 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

A interesting one for tuesday , i dont like the Icon model though. Its a bit rubbish.

It would be a blink and you miss it type of event 

[Loadsa2000]

its close. Jays not going to work Monday

Edited January 28, 2021 by Loadsa2000