Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jackfrost]

Yes, I also think it's likely to be corrected southwards to take in the Valleys at least.

[Cymro]

I’m expecting a repeat performance of last week here but on Saturday and with wind included = drifts

Then more sunday

Don’t worry it will correct south! 

[dbaloo]

Tends to be 9 times out of 10 that there is always an adjustment south. If this is the case this weekend we have the advantage that the band of wintery perception (I won't say snow because who knows what it will be ) is already further north so won't hopefully sink off into the channel or France.

[soupsurfer7]

BBC are very honest and basically saying still not clear how far north it will go and the forecast will change a lot depending on this. Last weekend was unusual in it ending up further north than expected... seems like usually about 7 times out of ten it gets corrected southwards. Hope it does this time as looks very marginal. 

[ALL ABOARD]

I'd presume a correction south.. 

You just have to look at the way the models have handled the Atlantic fronts moving in this week Initally it was a rain fest with Atlantic low after Atlantic low. 

As the models move closer and they realise they can't displace the cold air they will continue to correct south. 

That's what usually happens anyway. 

[LJ1224]

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

18 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Yes, I also think it's likely to be corrected southwards to take in the Valleys at least.

I can't see Caerphilly being included though unfortunately.

[butters]

according to metoffice torfaen is not in the warnng area but if you go on the bbc website they have the metoffice warning which say torfaen is included but the bbc are showing nothing but rain makes you laugh really how can they show rain and a warning for snow at  the same time lol.Hopefully it will correct further south

[keithlucky]

I mentioned the winter of 1918 1919 this set up is very similar.Looking at February  We going slowly but surely into the Freezer we been threatened a few times of the beast has reared his head.Threat wil become reality.

[butters]

strangely enough pontypool where i work on the met forecast for saturday is showing heavy snow for a few hours and then light snow for a few  is not on the warning very odd

[mattrout92]

UKV 09Z has some very heavy snow for Mid and East Wales on Saturday at 6am. Rain to the South which fits in with the MetOffice warning areas.

 

 

Hopefully it will correct Southwards, we will have to wait and see

[WINTRY WALES]

Didn’t the last snow fall correct north?? Hopefully this won’t!

[Jayfromcardiff]

19 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Didn’t the last snow fall correct north?? Hopefully this won’t!

I was about to say the same thing, to be honest sometimes its better to not be included in the warning. 9/10 times it results in disappointment.

[valley blue_501]

36 minutes ago, butters said:

according to metoffice torfaen is not in the warnng area but if you go on the bbc website they have the metoffice warning which say torfaen is included but the bbc are showing nothing but rain makes you laugh really how can they show rain and a warning for snow at  the same time lol.Hopefully it will correct further south

But if you go further north Blaenavon at over 350M would be snow. So I'm guessing the MO are edging their bets

[Jayfromcardiff]

The warning is now further north, I really can't see it correcting South even though I hope it does.

[freeze for all]

Still a massive amount of uncertainty at the moment, the warning matrix is on the unlikely and low disruption end of the scale. It could change but at the moment it looks like south and west wales will b rain and mid and North wales maybe snow

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, freeze for all said:

Still a massive amount of uncertainty at the moment, the warning matrix is on the unlikely and low disruption end of the scale. It could change but at the moment it looks like south and west wales will b rain and mid and North wales maybe snow

That's very true, all It takes is a 50 mile shift and things change.

[andymusic]

latest harmonie now that it's in range

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, andymusic said:

latest harmonie now that it's in range

Unless you live in mid or North Wales it'll be rain.

[Bartlett High]

Just rain in Sth.Wales I expect.....

[JamesL]

An interesting 48 hours coming up 

There’s no way that ANY model has this nailed yet 

My thoughts? 

It Will correct south and bring into play the Valleys and SE Wales 

As for Cardiff I think prob rain and maybe some transient back edge sleet or snow 

Aberdare I think will sit on the boundary. But HoV will do well as will Beacons, Brecon etc 

My guess is the Warning zone won’t change 

But expect surprises just south of it 

Edited January 28, 2021 by JamesL
Spelling

[Cymro]

The harmonie is a poor model as far as I am concerned! Completely wrong with last week's event. 

Also this is a different set up to last week. Last week was a shortwave dropping South, this is an LP moving in from the West with winds SE veering E/Ne! That's the key, no offshore winds. 

Expect a lot of snow across most of Wales. Seen this kind of setup all too many times before. 

Warning matrix will increase tomorrow and be extended south. 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Cymro

[Bartlett High]

5 minutes ago, JamesL said:

An interesting 48 hours coming up 

There’s no way that ANY model has this nailed yet 

My thoughts? 

It Will correct south and bring into play the Valleys and SE Wales 

As for Cardiff I think prob rain and maybe some transient back edge sleet or snow 

Aberdare I think will sit on the boundary. But HoV will do well as will Beacons, Brecon etc 

My guess is the Warning zone won’t change 

But expect surprises just south of it 

Can't see it myself but obviously hope you're right.......will know more this Time tomorrow. 

[dbaloo]

4 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

Can't see it myself but obviously hope you're right.......will know more this Time tomorrow. 

The way this models are chopping and changing we may know less

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, dbaloo said:

The way this models are chopping and changing we may know less

I'm expecting nothing here so if I even get a dusting it'll be good.