Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

54 minutes ago, snowy36 said:

Still no idea what will happen on saturday or sunday.  I see Arpege says snow for saturday .

Met office are now showing snow for me on Saturday and Sunday.

[Jackfrost]

A very complex pattern this weekend and into next week but, as things stand, Wales (and South Wales in particular) could be in for a snowy old weekend. The potential is there for more significant snow than we saw on Sunday and the models have shown consistency in this for the last few days, but it goes without saying that the uncertainty is very high and any expectations we have of snow could be snatched away with just one run.

The 18Z is about to begin rolling out. Let's see what it shows.

Edited January 27, 2021 by Jackfrost

[mattrout92]

GFS Parallel 18Z is much better than GFS. GFS pushes the low all the way up to Scotland and is an all rain event for us, whereas the Para keeps it to the South and gives a snow event on Saturday + Sunday

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

GFS Parallel 18Z is much better than GFS. GFS pushes the low all the way up to Scotland and is an all rain event for us, whereas the Para keeps it to the South and gives a snow event on Saturday + Sunday

Don't the met office just use their own model mate? How's it looking now?

[mattrout92]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Don't the met office just use their own model mate? How's it looking now?

I believe they do - the UKV runs 6 times a day from 0-48hrs, and twice a day from 0-120hrs (extended version). The last extended version was the one I posted earlier and showed a spell of snow away from the coasts above around 100m on Saturday/Sunday. From tomorrow afternoon it will update more regularly for Saturday's event as it'll be in the 48 hour range

[Loadsa2000]

Monday 1 Feb - Wednesday 10 Feb

Going into next week, it is likely that unsettled conditions will dominate, with low pressure systems moving in off the Atlantic. The weather will be changeable. Periods of rain or wintry showers, and strong winds are likely, especially in the west, with brief more settled spells in between. Westerly or southwesterly winds during this period will bring milder conditions to most areas, but occasional interludes of cold northerly winds are possible. It will be on this boundary between the colder and milder airmasses where any snowfall to lower levels could possibly occur. Towards the end of this period, we may see high pressure build over the north of the UK, bringing colder conditions and wintry outbreaks.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Wed 27 Jan 2021

[Jayfromcardiff]

Any snow that was showing has now gone by the looks of it. Replaced by hours and hours of sleet.

[WINTRY WALES]

Not true Jay.....the fronts have been corrected south bringing more of South Wales and southern England in to play

[Jayfromcardiff]

4 minutes ago, WINTRY WALES said:

Not true Jay.....the fronts have been corrected south bringing more of South Wales and southern England in to play

I was talking about the automated forecasts sorry. That looks ok I guess. Is Sunday looking decent?

[dbaloo]

Hmm.. met office going for heavy snow...bbc going for heavy rain ....met the battle of the forecasts commence (and change several times over the next 36-48 hours) . 

Far to many swings and roundabouts to get around and over first to call anything yet 

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, dbaloo said:

Hmm.. met office going for heavy snow...bbc going for heavy rain ....met the battle of the forecasts commence (and change several times over the next 36-48 hours) . 

Far to many swings and roundabouts to get around and over first to call anything yet 

It'll probably go down to the day itself no doubt. Automated forecast is showing snow or sleet for my area.

[Cymro]

A word of caution guys, don’t stay glued to the automated forecasts, more UTurns than a Tory government! 

 

Interestingly I have noticed nearly all models/snow accumulation forecasts show no snow for pembrokeshire and Carmarthenshire on a regular basis but are nearly always wrong. The only time they proved correct, broadly speaking was the Beast From the East. 

They often show snow in coastal Ceredigion and Gwynedd for example which doesn’t materialise yet last weekend I think roughly speaking we had deeper snow here than most of South Wales (12cm) but the forecast all showed a lack of snow. Likewise North pembs as well, they did really well! 

How refined are these models to local topography for example? 

 

 

[Cymro]

Diolch @Grifffor pointing it out in the mod thread! Matt Hugo tweeting about the possibility of a significant snow event in Wales on Saturday. 

 

Let’s see if a warning is issued later! 

Edited January 28, 2021 by Cymro

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Cymro said:

Diolch @Grifffor pointing it out in the mod thread! Matt Hugo tweeting about the possibility of a significant snow event in Wales on Saturday. 

 

Let’s see if a warning is issued later! 

Paid gwrando i beth mae gaeaf saith deg naw yn ddweud  

Edited January 28, 2021 by Griff

[Jayfromcardiff]

8 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Diolch @Grifffor pointing it out in the mod thread! Matt Hugo tweeting about the possibility of a significant snow event in Wales on Saturday. 

 

Let’s see if a warning is issued later! 

Where in Wales?

[Notty]

8 minutes ago, Cymro said:

Diolch @Grifffor pointing it out in the mod thread! Matt Hugo tweeting about the possibility of a significant snow event in Wales on Saturday. 

 

Let’s see if a warning is issued later! 

 

[Clair_Witch]

Being only 9m asl I am not expecting anything but rain for me, I live in hope though.  

[Loadsa2000]

1 hour ago, dbaloo said:

Hmm.. met office going for heavy snow...bbc going for heavy rain ....met the battle of the forecasts commence (and change several times over the next 36-48 hours) . 

Far to many swings and roundabouts to get around and over first to call anything yet 

yesterday it was the other way round

could it be they are checking each others forecast and finding what the others are seeing and amending each other

[Jayfromcardiff]

Two people in work have mentioned snow on the weekend so something must be going on lol. In all honestly I'm not buying into a significant snow event Saturday.

[bradymk]

This also from Matt H - EC ENS Snowfall for Saturday.

This is an average of all 51 EC Ensemble members I believe, so a strong signal for significant snowfall for Saturday for mid and north wales in particular. I would expect a MetO warning at 11 given only less than 48 hours away 

Less chance say beacons south at the moment of a significant snowfall (EC still shows 3-5cm for valleys) but certainly time for changes there. 

Either way pretty chuffed we’re talking about a potentially good snow event again within a week! 

Edited January 28, 2021 by bradymk

[mattrout92]

UKV Extended goes for an all rain event between 12am and 6am on Saturday, before turning to snow on high ground in mid Wales, and clearing South Eastwards with a trail of rain sleet and snow. 

   

 

Sunday brings a spell of sleet to coastal areas and snow further in land on higher ground

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 hour ago, mattrout92 said:

UKV Extended goes for an all rain event between 12am and 6am on Saturday, before turning to snow on high ground in mid Wales, and clearing South Eastwards with a trail of rain sleet and snow. 

   

 

Sunday brings a spell of sleet to coastal areas and snow further in land on higher ground

Not expecting much snow here the way it's going.

[Coilspring]

 Meto warning out. 

[WINTRY WALES]

Warning Doesn’t cover much in South Wales

[Coilspring]

I expect it will drift southwards though.