Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[mattrout92]

Snow Depths from UKV 12Z here, looking good! Who's looking forward to some snow then

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, mattrout92 said:

Snow Depths from UKV 12Z here, looking good! Who's looking forward to some snow then

That's showing 10cm, surely it can't be correct. Not that I'd complain!

[mattrout92]

28 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

That's showing 10cm, surely it can't be correct. Not that I'd complain!

We will soon find out! Won't be long now till we will be switching to the radar as it approaches!

[andy989]

Latest updates have it further north. 

[snowy36]

43 minutes ago, andymusic said:

a flippin site better than euro4 which has become more than useless

I agree its now far better than euro4, that needs upgrading 

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

38 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

Snow Depths from UKV 12Z here, looking good! Who's looking forward to some snow then

That looks great for most people, accumilating snow to the N, W and E of Swansea - I bet it will end up being correct

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

16 minutes ago, andy989 said:

Latest updates have it further north. 

What update has it further north?

[Ian Price]

I like the latest NMM. Seems to pivot in N Wales.

[andy989]

24 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

What update has it further north?

Latest met office fax chart, that's what I've seen anyway. Other members in the model thread are posting various "further north" posts. Hope so from an IMBY perspective, its pretty much radar time to get a better idea of the track 

Edited January 23, 2021 by andy989

[bradymk]

Latest ECM has it further north and much earlier too!

Precip already at Swansea 2am

clears most of South Wales by 6am

Edited January 23, 2021 by bradymk

[thetipster]

Here's  the arome run 

[dyl232]

10 minutes ago, andy989 said:

Latest met office fax chart, that's what I've seen anyway. Other members in the model thread are posting various "further north" posts. Hope so from an IMBY perspective, its pretty much radar time to get a better idea of the track 

Good news for us then, fingers crossed!!

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Latest ECM has it further north and much earlier too!

Precip already at Swansea 2am

clears most of South Wales by 6am

So it looks crap for South Wales would you say?

[JamesL]

I’m pretty bullish on tomorrow’s snow for the SE of Wales

Looking at ALL the models the valleys/heads of the valleys seem to do pretty well 

We also have the potential of the snow clearing early morning and then pivoting back over us 

Somewhere imo could end up with 4-6 hours of pretty decent snowfall 

As always though radar watching will be the best tool come morning 

J 

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

It does appear to be a bit further north and also seems like at least from the ECM's perspective will clear through quite quick. Ive included the last 4 ECM runs for 6am Sunday, as you can see the last image shows it clearing South Wales by then. Again shows snow for most even on the coast but I wouldnt rely on those details to much.

Edited January 23, 2021 by SnowStorm(Jamie)

[JamesL]

There will definitely be some surprises 

All I want is enough to take my 3 year old up Rhigos mountain and get pulled around in his sledge 

Ive managed to create a 3.5 year old crazy snow fan already 

He’s going to be so upset if daddy’s wrong

[andy989]

It has moved further North but hasn't taken the action away from the south either. It's just more of Wales is in for some snow. It will be down to radar watching to see if we get very lucky and it stalls/pivots over Wales but it's modelled to clear Wales pretty quick. Enjoy folks, will post pics if I get decent action 

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, JamesL said:

There will definitely be some surprises 

All I want is enough to take my 3 year old up Rhigos mountain and get pulled around in his sledge 

Ive managed to create a 3.5 year old crazy snow fan already 

He’s going to be so upset if daddy’s wrong

Do you think it'll arrive earlier than expected? These models have moved the area of snow around alot. I'll just keep checking the radar.

[snowy36]

i love how everyone in this place things its going to pivot over them , im surprised the scottish have not joined in  

[JamesL]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Do you think it'll arrive earlier than expected? These models have moved the area of snow around alot. I'll just keep checking the radar.

As we all know Jay these situations are SO fluid 

It’s just a case of radar watching 

I think you’ll get some where you are in N Cardiff and further N up the Valleys should fair well 

Im hoping here in Aberdare we get 1-3” 

[Snowguy]

I’m starting to worry if it will sleet or snow in North Cardiff. Any thoughts?

If we get decent precipitation.

Edited January 23, 2021 by Snowguy

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, JamesL said:

As we all know Jay these situations are SO fluid 

It’s just a case of radar watching 

I think you’ll get some where you are in N Cardiff and further N up the Valleys should fair well 

Im hoping here in Aberdare we get 1-3” 

I live in Caerphilly now so should fair better than Cardiff fingers crossed.

[JamesL]

This is state of play now. Look WNW 

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Just an update from Derek:

 

[snowy36]

My moneys is about 5 for u Jay.