Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[thetipster]

Heres the latest from the met

[A_T]

regular snow flurries here but not persistent enough to settle

[bradymk]

09z UKV model is an upgrade for all of South Wales. Heres snow depth 6z run to 9z.

That also explains the upgrade in MetOffice automated forecast (believe they use UKV)

[Hywel]

The snow depth charts are wrong for here, load of fresh snow overnight and carrying on throughout the day so far. It has been snowing all day in the valley also, down to 100m asl (Mold / Yr Wyddgrug)

Edited January 23, 2021 by Hywel

[JamesL]

Looks like the H ot V area will do well. Brynmawr to Hirwaun 

 

I’m expecting 1-3” here in Aberdare 

 

.....and coming through at the perfect time of day too 

 

There will be quite big variations in depths I’m sure and a few surprises and possibly disappointments 

 

But for the vast majority of S Wales this is our best opportunity of the winter so far to make a snow man

[DeepSnow]

Im still optimistic for snow here in Barry, despite only being a mile inland and 40m asl, it's only 3.4c - was expecting higher by now. Be happy to see 1-2cm when I wake up for work in the morning!

[AlexThe Great]

What time do you think we will be able to try and determine the track of the precipitation to establish where the sweet spots could lie , any ideas ? 

*what time will it be approaching the channel etc.

Edited January 23, 2021 by AlexThe Great

[Jayfromcardiff]

5 minutes ago, AlexThe Great said:

What time do you think we will be able to try and determine the track of the precipitation to establish where the sweet spots could lie , any ideas ? 

*what time will it be approaching the channel etc.

Maybe midnight. I'm not sure though.

[Marcus_surfer]

28 minutes ago, DeepSnow said:

Im still optimistic for snow here in Barry, despite only being a mile inland and 40m asl, it's only 3.4c - was expecting higher by now. Be happy to see 1-2cm when I wake up for work in the morning!

Good luck. I hope you get at least 1cm

[Cymro]

It has been very cold today, and our dusting is surviving in the shade, and considering it wasn't much I am quite impressed, all standing water in fields and pond iced over, shows what can happen when the ground has cooled over a long period of time. I think settling snow won't be a problem for anywhere above about 100m tomorrow. 2"- 4" Valleys, Carmarthenshire inland and North Pembrokeshire. 

1" perhaps immediate coasts Llanelli, Swansea, South Pembrokeshire, Barry, Cardiff, Port Talbot. The best thing is the temperature will be even colder than today so most lying snow should last comfortably throughout Sunday and most of Monday as well, after that a thaw but more to come in February hopefully

Also, North Wales has had quite a lot of snow from showers today. I'm sure NE Wales has done best so far this winter for snow. 

I also expect showers to follow the main band as well, topping up accumulations across Wales. 

I don't think the front will make it much passed the Welsh border to be honest and just fizzle out. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

7 minutes ago, Cymro said:

It has been very cold today, and our dusting is surviving in the shade, and considering it wasn't much I am quite impressed, all standing water in fields and pond iced over, shows what can happen when the ground has cooled over a long period of time. I think settling snow won't be a problem for anywhere above about 100m tomorrow. 2"- 4" Valleys, Carmarthenshire inland and North Pembrokeshire. 

1" perhaps immediate coasts Llanelli, Swansea, South Pembrokeshire, Barry, Cardiff, Port Talbot. The best thing is the temperature will be even colder than today so most lying snow should last comfortably throughout Sunday and most of Monday as well, after that a thaw but more to come in February hopefully

Also, North Wales has had quite a lot of snow from showers today. I'm sure NE Wales has done best so far this winter for snow. 

I also expect showers to follow the main band as well, topping up accumulations across Wales. 

I don't think the front will make it much passed the Welsh border to be honest and just fizzle out. 

I agree, if the cold air proves to be stubborn the front could just stall across the border and pivot all day.

I'm just under 100m so not sure how I'll fair.

[Pembroke Dangler]

I think the snow coming in during the period of the low water as the tide will be ebbing out will have an influence with less warming on the immediate coast as more land is exposed I.e. the burry inlet and Severn estuarys less warmer sea water to affect the base layers etc just my thoughts but happy to be ridiculed lol 

[A Frayed Knot]

1 hour ago, thetipster said:

Heres the latest from the met

That's not going any further than South of the Midlands. I can see that pivoting and stalling over East Wales and maybe further west. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

Just now, A Frayed Knot said:

That's not going any further than South of the Midlands. I can see that pivoting and stalling over East Wales and maybe further west. 

I agree, they're still uncertain of the northern extent so no doubt it'll correct southwards.

[freeze for all]

2 minutes ago, A Frayed Knot said:

That's not going any further than South of the Midlands. I can see that pivoting and stalling over East Wales and maybe further west. 

I think we'll just miss out and it will hit Central England, if it keeps the heavy precipitation someone could b in for a surprise where it does

[Pembroke Dangler]

Tonight’s precipitation is now encroaching western Ireland on its way to us looks like a lot of heavy echoes over there just hope it stays intact and as intense after it crosses Ireland and not to much of the energy is sapped over land in Ireland 

[Jayfromcardiff]

6 minutes ago, Pembroke Dangler said:

Tonight’s precipitation is now encroaching western Ireland on its way to us looks like a lot of heavy echoes over there just hope it stays intact and as intense after it crosses Ireland and not to much of the energy is sapped over land in Ireland 

No doubt there will be some surprises. They're not sure enough to issue an amber weather warning so who knows what's going to happen.

[Loadsa2000]

3 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

No doubt there will be some surprises. They're not sure enough to issue an amber weather warning so who knows what's going to happen.

4pm possibly or just before that's when they update.

Will check while watching the mighty irons play

[bradymk]

Updated MetOffice automated for Cardiff, bank!!

Again wouldn’t take too much from these but happy it’s trending back in right direction after showing heavy rain/sleet earlier today.

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 minutes ago, bradymk said:

Updated MetOffice automated for Cardiff, bank!!

Again wouldn’t take too much from these but happy it’s trending back in right direction after showing heavy rain/sleet earlier today.

Any idea what time the snow will arrive?

[freeze for all]

32 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

No doubt there will be some surprises. They're not sure enough to issue an amber weather warning so who knows what's going to happen.

The system moves through to quick to issue an amber warning, even where it stalls and pivots the precipitation prob won't b heavy enough for long enough. Let's just hope surprises show up

[andy989]

The precipitation is moving E/NE yes? Looking at the radar, it seems much further north than modelled?  Especially Vs the met office animation above 

Edited January 23, 2021 by andy989

[keithlucky]

17 minutes ago, freeze for all said:

The system moves through to quick to issue an amber warning, even where it stalls and pivots the precipitation prob won't b heavy enough for long enough. Let's just hope surprises show up

Looks promising over west ireland let see how front develops.

[bradymk]

The first of the 12z models are out!!

Here we have...

AROME

 

ARPEGE

 

ICON

[bradymk]

UKV next out - Much better snow risk for all than earlier runs. However precip is in fairly early and also clears through Wales quickly and stalls in England before pivoting. Good intensity though.