Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[keithlucky]

4 hours ago, keithlucky said:

It won't be 5c at 4am even in the South! I mentioned the other day that another down dwelling had taken place this week.This is now showing up in the models.Expect the mild spell to be constantly downgraded next week expect a cold northerly  by the end of next week.

There we go bitter cold Northerly,unstable air flow.Even more snow according to ECM.As milder air pushed south .Never underestimate Stratospheric warming Andy get the Huskies ready!

[Panayiotis]

It’s a real tough one (as you might already know) especially as past events have these systems trend south nearer to the date. I do think any precipitation that does fall will be snow across most of Wales as dew points will be mainly below 0 from now until Sunday and 850hpa supports snowfall. Only the far west has the risk of precipitation turning more sleety as a band of warmer air (associated with the precipitation) gets squeezed across that area on Sunday morning. 

At this current time and it’s long shot even 36hrs before the event, I’m going for 1-3cm across South Wales, with higher ground seeing 3-10cm (Builth Wells being the most north). 

Note: Pivot point is around Hereford at the moment, but obviously this needs watching as this will be the difference between a slight covering for South Wales or something more substantial. 

Edited January 22, 2021 by Panayiotis

[A Frayed Knot]

HARMONE AND EURO 4 Sunday 

[Loadsa2000]

 18z

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

3 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

 18z

 

Rain then for South Wales.

[thetipster]

Heres the latest snow  risk Sunday  from the crystal ball  

[mattrout92]

Tonights UKV pushes the precipitation through very quickly and has a much higher Northern and Eastern extent. Also risk of it turning sleety/rainy on the coasts

Accumulations are only really on ground above 100m and away from the coasts

 

Could do with some Southern corrections tomorrow

[Jayfromcardiff]

6 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

Tonights UKV pushes the precipitation through very quickly and has a much higher Northern and Eastern extent. Also risk of it turning sleety/rainy on the coasts

Accumulations are only really on ground above 100m and away from the coasts

 

Could do with some Southern corrections tomorrow

Still looks ok for a few cm.

[Jayfromcardiff]

We could do with it stalling further west. I'm sure after the winter we've had so far we would all be happy with a few cm.

[Marcus_surfer]

Yet another icy night after rain from earlier road like an ice rink

[Jayfromcardiff]

Potential for more snow during the early hours of Monday morning, just checked the BBC weather graphics.

[Marcus_surfer]

What are the dew points and upper air temperatures across Wales tommorow night?

[mattrout92]

3 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

What are the dew points and upper air temperatures across Wales tommorow night?

Dewpoints around 0 degrees and 850s are around -5 at 6am Sunday

[Panayiotis]

2 hours ago, mattrout92 said:

Dewpoints around 0 degrees and 850s are around -5 at 6am Sunday

Dew points and 850hpa looking good for most of Wales bar the far west (as per my earlier post). Hopefully we get that precipitation in! 

[A Frayed Knot]

Booooooom. Heavy snow here and settling on very frozen ground and them sw flakes are humungous... Its a whiteout here. 

Ooops Sorry, will post again this time tommorow or a bit later.. Just doing a **test ** 

Thought I wake you all up though, NW Thread are doing good though. I'm happy for them

[Panayiotis]

Most models this morning are showing the band of precipitation moving through Wales, things haven’t really trended south which is great- HIRLAM is the only one which isnt interested and doesn’t make much of the system. It does look good for us in the South, best chance of the winter; wouldn’t be surprised to see an amber warning for the Valleys , possibly pushing south into Caerphilly/Cardiff/Newport 

[blackrose73]

I wouldn't be surprised to see an amber warning being issued for some parts of Wales soon. If that does happen, I'm pulling an all-nighter with some wine! I am very quiet in here mostly, unless I feel that there is something to get genuinely excited about. Channel lows normally correct southwards, but this one is forming to the west of Ireland and tracking ESE. An odd situation this, with so much uncertainty as usual. If the pivoting of the front occurs just a little more west than forecast, this could be a very significant event. I just hope I don't wake later this morning to find out that the whole thing has been downgraded significantly for us. I have an entire facebook group ready to party with me over this!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Heavy snow now being shown for Caerphilly on the met office forecast! I haven't checked other areas yet. Looks to be around 5 hours of snow.

[snefnug]

Light covering of snow here, over icy flooded roads. 
 

 

[Hywel]

Light to moderate snow here for the past few hours

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 hour ago, blackrose73 said:

I wouldn't be surprised to see an amber warning being issued for some parts of Wales soon. If that does happen, I'm pulling an all-nighter with some wine! I am very quiet in here mostly, unless I feel that there is something to get genuinely excited about. Channel lows normally correct southwards, but this one is forming to the west of Ireland and tracking ESE. An odd situation this, with so much uncertainty as usual. If the pivoting of the front occurs just a little more west than forecast, this could be a very significant event. I just hope I don't wake later this morning to find out that the whole thing has been downgraded significantly for us. I have an entire facebook group ready to party with me over this!

I wouldn't bother staying up all night, it doesn't arrive until 5/6am by the looks of it.

[PompeyFC]

9 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I wouldn't bother staying up all night, it doesn't arrive until 5/6am by the looks of it.

BBC forecast had it earlier than that Jay

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, PompeyFC said:

BBC forecast had it earlier than that Jay

Oh right, even for SE Wales? It's hard to tell sometimes with all the different models.

[Cymro]

Sugar dusting here this morning and very icy. Looks good for tomorrow and with the front arriving at the coldest part of the day and slightly slower no longer 3/4am but 4/5am West 5/6am East. If it’s moving slower or potentially struggling against the cold air it could mean that the front is stalling further West which isn’t a bad thing for us in terms of a wrap around and more accumilation. 

 

 

[mattrout92]

With 24 hours until the main event, here's the UKV from now until tomorrow eve:

 

 

 

Edited January 23, 2021 by mattrout92