Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[snefnug]

Regional threads. Oooh look, it’s snowing! mad thread, bugger,  no cold in foreseeable, bah to winter...

[A Frayed Knot]

2 minutes ago, snefnug said:

Regional threads. Oooh look, it’s snowing! mad thread, bugger,  no cold in foreseeable, bah to winter...

There so BIAS on there that's why. Should rename it the England Mad thread. They want it IMBY all the time and if they get to see other county's getting it then it's fame over and winters finished.. Lmao its only the 21st of January, the winters I witnessed and was brutal winters didn't start until late January into February. I remember as I a kid in the early 80s we were playing outside and it started to rain and within half an hour it turned to sleet with big wet snowflakes my late father called me in as it was bed time. Went to bed and looked out of my bedroom window and the sleet turned to snow rapidly settling. Within an hour full easterly was howling and a full on blizzard had hit South East Wales... Bloody amazing that was. 

[Marcus_surfer]

Apart from the chance for a bit of snow Sunday the outlook is drab with more wind and rain to come next week

[Jayfromcardiff]

Something doesn't add up with the latest GFS run, it's showing quite a bit of snowfall for Wales even some tonight.

[KTtom]

4 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Something doesn't add up with the latest GFS run, it's showing quite a bit of snowfall for Wales even some tonight.

Yes has the mini lows a tad further north, sweet spot in terms of temperatures being the right side of marginal for us low down has to be Saturday through to Sunday, currently looking very interesting early Sunday for the south and west depending on the track of this feature:.

 

 

Edited January 22, 2021 by KTtom

[Jayfromcardiff]

28 minutes ago, KTtom said:

Yes has the mini lows a tad further north, sweet spot in terms of temperatures being the right side of marginal for us low down has to be Saturday through to Sunday, currently looking very interesting early Sunday for the south and west depending on the track of this feature:.

 

 

 I'm rubbish at reading fax charts. What's this showing for us?

[Jackfrost]

Pleasantly surprised by the 00Z. I suspect it's overdoing it in terms of snow today and tomorrow - it shows the potential for wintry showers affecting both the south and north at various times as more organised and widespread than it actually is - but I'm going to put my neck on the line and suggest that what it's modelling for Sunday is fairly accurate: a spell of widespread snow across Wales down to low-ish levels, possibly even sea level, with amounts still TBD.

Also, as for the MOD thread: it's enjoyable to follow but it can get frustrating when snow, the weather type most desired by far on NW, is imminent, yet the focus is on the horizon (i.e. ten days ahead, it's always ten days). I get the desire for regular repeats of the major cold episodes of the past but the reality is that those are rare with our oceanic climate, so let's try to enjoy this weekend without focusing on the possible zonal period after that.

Edited January 22, 2021 by Jackfrost

[Fujita scale]

4 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Pleasantly surprised by the 00Z. I suspect it's overdoing it in terms of snow today and tomorrow - it shows the potential for wintry showers affecting both the south and at various times as more organised and widespread than it actually is - but I'm going to put my neck on the line and suggest that what it's modelling for Sunday is fairly accurate: a spell of widespread snow across Wales down to low-ish levels, possibly even sea level, with amounts still TBD.

Sounds quite reasonable to me - let's keep our fingers crossed that it comes to fruition - we will get our thread top of the list most of the day then

JK

[Jayfromcardiff]

6 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

Pleasantly surprised by the 00Z. I suspect it's overdoing it in terms of snow today and tomorrow - it shows the potential for wintry showers affecting both the south and at various times as more organised and widespread than it actually is - but I'm going to put my neck on the line and suggest that what it's modelling for Sunday is fairly accurate: a spell of widespread snow across Wales down to low-ish levels, possibly even sea level, with amounts still TBD.

Also, as for the MOD thread: it's enjoyable to follow but it can get frustrating when snow, the weather type most desired by far on NW, is imminent, yet the focus is on the horizon (i.e. ten days ahead, it's always ten days). I get the desire for regular repeats of the major cold episodes of the past but the reality is that those are rare with our oceanic climate, so let's try to enjoy this weekend without focusing on the possible zonal period after that.

Met office automated forecast is just showing light snow for Sunday at the moment. At least this time the ground will be frozen solid as temperatures are going to be sub zero.

[KTtom]

19 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

 I'm rubbish at reading fax charts. What's this showing for us?

Its showing a small area of low pressure to the west of Wales at Midnight Saturday, this by Mid day Sunday is currently due to be situated just to the south east of Wales...the track is still difficult to predict and as mentioned on the BBC 4cast may sift north or south, however, what falls out the sky on its journey west to east will be snow due to it occurring just as the coldest upper air temps are accross wales. 

Edited January 22, 2021 by KTtom

[keithlucky]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

 I'm rubbish at reading fax charts. What's this showing for us?

Shows channel low running into Wales early Saturday morning to far north we drag in swesterlies sleet rather than snow .To far south it will miss us altogether.Expect a weather warning mid day.

[freeze for all]

Beautiful crisp frosty morning here, let's hope it stays dry and sunny all day

[mattrout92]

Lovely frost here this morning, should be more over the next few days too! Good to see the models keeping with the snowy theme on Sunday too. UKV improved this morning and has the precipitation further North:

 

Not sure how accurate these are, but the snow depth for Sunday has around 10cm in the Vale of Glamorgan area:

Edited January 22, 2021 by mattrout92

[keithlucky]

25 minutes ago, mattrout92 said:

Lovely frost here this morning, should be more over the next few days too! Good to see the models keeping with the snowy theme on Sunday too. UKV improved this morning and has the precipitation further North:

 

Not sure how accurate these are, but the snow depth for Sunday has around 10cm in the Vale of Glamorgan area:

With a bit of luck

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Waiting to see if the Met Office releases a warning for Early Sunday, I imagine there will be a snow and ice warning. 

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 hour ago, mattrout92 said:

Lovely frost here this morning, should be more over the next few days too! Good to see the models keeping with the snowy theme on Sunday too. UKV improved this morning and has the precipitation further North:

 

Not sure how accurate these are, but the snow depth for Sunday has around 10cm in the Vale of Glamorgan area:

I'm hoping the ppn moves further north for more of us to get in on the action.

[mattrout92]

7 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I'm hoping the ppn moves further north for more of us to get in on the action.

Harmonie has the ppn further North:

EURO4 on the flip side doesn't even get it close to us:

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Snow and Ice warning now issued by the Met Office.

Still some uncertaintiy around the event obviously and if things end up to far north then it becomes more marginal for those in the south, to far south and and its in the channel again. 

Interesting to see how this one pans out

 

[Coilspring]

Well meto have a yellow warning for snow and ice for us now. 

[Snowguy]

Quite a vast are covered by it.Starting to get my hopes up. Looks the further east the more likely it will turn to snow, but very good chance for us however still to far to be certain.

[Marcus_surfer]

Too mild for coastal areas. Rain likely

[Jayfromcardiff]

9 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Too mild for coastal areas. Rain likely

Where does it say that on the warning?

[bradymk]

 

12 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Where does it say that on the warning?

No mention of rain on Sundays warning. 1-3cm at low levels. 5-10cm above 100m.

The separate warning issued for today and tomorrow morning talks about rain/sleet at low coastal areas.

As Jamie says above, Sundays marginality for southern coastal areas is going to go down to how far north the precipitation is. We'd want to see some movement from EURO4 and Arpege in coming runs but I think Sunday is definitely the best chance of the winter so far.

[JamesL]

41 minutes ago, SnowStorm(Jamie) said:

Snow and Ice warning now issued by the Met Office.

Still some uncertaintiy around the event obviously and if things end up to far north then it becomes more marginal for those in the south, to far south and and its in the channel again. 

Interesting to see how this one pans out

 

I think the event on early Sunday morning is going to be our best bet for widespread snow. 
And looks like it’s coming through at the perfect time for Wales too. 

 

This system looks like it will deposit snow for most places unlike later today and tonight 

I’m hoping here in Aberdare where we are over 100m we should get 2-4” by Sunday morning 

[JamesL]

1 minute ago, bradymk said:

 

No mention of rain on Sundays warning. 1-3cm at low levels. 5-10cm above 100m.

The separate warning issued for today and tomorrow morning talks about rain/sleet at low coastal areas.

As Jamie says above, Sundays marginality for southern coastal areas is going to go down to how far north the precipitation is. We'd want to see some movement from EURO4 and Arpege in coming runs but I think Sunday is definitely the best chance of the winter so far.

100% pretty much no marginality on Sunday apart from possibly the immediate coast