Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Loadsa2000]

1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

There's a couple of people next door and they're part of the Mormon community, one from Canada and another from the US. The Canadian was explaining the blizzard they had years ago when the snow was higher than the cars lol and that this weather isn't even cold to him.

Jay i remember it up here in 82. Caerphilly cut off for a week. Fighting at the train station to get on the train that was running late. took me 6 hours to walk from the miners to the cafe on top of the mountain to feed our horses.

Had to dig the in laws out as one you couldn't see the car in the drive and both their back door and front door of the bungalow faced the same direction. Snow was banked up a couple of feet above the doors. I had a fence around the front garden and i was walking above it

[keithlucky]

6 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

Jay i remember it up here in 82. Caerphilly cut off for a week. Fighting at the train station to get on the train that was running late. took me 6 hours to walk from the miners to the cafe on top of the mountain to feed our horses.

Had to dig the in laws out as one you couldn't see the car in the drive and both their back door and front door of the bungalow faced the same direction. Snow was banked up a couple of feet above the doors. I had a fence around the front garden and i was walking above it

If I remember correctly it started snowing 6pm Saturday stopped 6pm Sunday.over 2foot deep even by the coast.

[Loadsa2000]

9 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

If I remember correctly it started snowing 6pm Saturday stopped 6pm Sunday.over 2foot deep even by the coast.

Even my local ran out of beer. 

[mattrout92]

GFS 18Z showing some possible snow moving through our region on Friday

 

[Loadsa2000]

Cardiff City Centre OgmoreClifton Street CardiffThornhillAdamsdownM4

Bedlinog

Caerphilly

Edited January 4, 2021 by Loadsa2000

[John Lloyd]

I was living in Tongwynlais in ‘82. I was just a kid. It was epic. Huge drifts. Dug our way out of the house. Cut off even though it was right on J32 of the M4. Loved it. Mornings were for getting supplies up to the old folk for the milkman, the butcher, the newsagent and the grocer. Once we were done it was mucking about on every hilly field we could get to.
 

2018 matched it for drifts in the sweet spot by Barry - 50cm of level snow fell in the storm then drifted wildly. It took them days to dig out Five Mile Lane - the main road from the A48 down to Barry. We dug ourselves out with a JCB to get off the farm and join the next village. The rural lanes were blocked even longer. Cars being abandoned and covered in snow was a big problem getting things clear. Our water main burst and we had no running water for six days. Funny... less time for snowballs and sledging as an adult.

Hope some of us get lucky in the next week and, after, that the SSW has a favourable impact. 

 

[Jayfromcardiff]

2 hours ago, mattrout92 said:

GFS 18Z showing some possible snow moving through our region on Friday

 

Does it have any support from other models? It'll probably be gone tomorrow lol.

[Panayiotis]

1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Does it have any support from other models? It'll probably be gone tomorrow lol.

Has been showing it for the last few runs, on its own at the moment, hopefully something develops closer to the date

[keithlucky]

8 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Does it have any support from other models? It'll probably be gone tomorrow lol.

BBC mentioned  Rain to snow event Thursday Friday let's see if warm sector get mixed out .

[Loadsa2000]

still there friday 

 now got thursday one hell of a force field in mid wales

 Met Office

Wales weather forecast

Tuesday 5 Jan - Saturday 9 Jan

Headline:

Largely dry but cloudy, feeling cold.

Today:

A largely dry but cloudy day, with some sunny spells, western areas seeing the best of these. Northern areas may see some patchy, wintry showers at times. Feeling rather cold, with winds lighter than Monday but remaining brisk. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Tonight:

Remaining largely dry with patchy cloud. Northwestern coasts may see scattered, wintry showers during the early hours. Feeling cold, with clear spells bringing a risk of frost. Minimum temperature -2 °C.

Wednesday:

A chilly start though some cloud through the morning. This will gradually clear, leaving a largely dry day with sunny spells, western areas seeing the best of these. Feeling cold. Maximum temperature 5 °C.

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday:

Largely dry, with any showers along western coasts, clear skies and sunny spells, but continuing to feel cold. Overnight frosts and some lingering freezing fog likely.

Updated: 04:00 (UTC) on Tue 5 Jan 2021

BBC

Outlook for Thursday to Saturday

Thursday will be a cold day, but it should be largely dry, with areas of cloud and some bright spells. A cold night will follow, and there is a slight chance of a spell of sleet and snow on Thursday night and into Friday morning, but there is very low confidence on this. It will remain cold through Friday and Saturday, with some sunny spells by day, and clear spells by night.

Still no clue

Edited January 5, 2021 by Loadsa2000

[mattrout92]

8 hours ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

Does it have any support from other models? It'll probably be gone tomorrow lol.

Still there this morning on GFS 0Z, as posted above. ECMWF doesn't develop the feature as much with snow showers pushing down from the Midlands, a bit like the other night, but they fade away over the Beacons more.
 

ECMWF 0z:

Probably one to keep an eye on when it approaches the time frame for the shorter range models 

 

[Gee]

Snow or no snow.

The next best thing is what we have now.

Ice crisp days, wrapped up warm for a fresh cold air walk. Clears the head right up.

Better than the misserable dross of recent times. 

[Loadsa2000]

couple more pics of 82 in south Wales for Jay and for us old persons to remember when we had proper winters. Also when we queued for food pubs were closed and we couldn't go anywhere. Bit like today without the white stuff  

[Loadsa2000]

North of the M4 corridor here we come

Tuesday 19 Jan - Tuesday 2 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for Atlantic mobility to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be closer to average. However, there is still a chance of cold air outbreaks in the north as flow across Scandinavia pushes across the North Sea. This would confine more unsettled conditions to the south, as well as milder than average temperatures. Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 5 Jan 2021

[andymusic]

55 minutes ago, Loadsa2000 said:

North of the M4 corridor here we come

Tuesday 19 Jan - Tuesday 2 Feb

Confidence for this period is low, though there is a signal for Atlantic mobility to weaken which perhaps allows conditions, at least in the north, to become drier and for temperatures to be closer to average. However, there is still a chance of cold air outbreaks in the north as flow across Scandinavia pushes across the North Sea. This would confine more unsettled conditions to the south, as well as milder than average temperatures. Further, this boundary between the cold and milder conditions could also allow for some significant snowfall where the two air masses.

Updated: 16:00 (UTC) on Tue 5 Jan 2021

something like this - but it could also be over Scotland, northern England or the midlands

[Loadsa2000]

2 hours ago, andymusic said:

something like this - but it could also be over Scotland, northern England or the midlands

Keep the faith going

And we all must pray to the great snow gods (andy has the advantage living closer to them)

[Jayfromcardiff]

Chance of wintry showers tonight, seems more precipitation than forecast?

[bradymk]

Just now, Jayfromcardiff said:

Chance of wintry showers tonight, seems more precipitation than forecast?

MetOffice have also got that in their text forecast for south east Wales. They mention the early hours the chance of wintry showers. May see something at least, still waiting for a proper snow shower. Just sleet so far.

[Jayfromcardiff]

8 minutes ago, bradymk said:

MetOffice have also got that in their text forecast for south east Wales. They mention the early hours the chance of wintry showers. May see something at least, still waiting for a proper snow shower. Just sleet so far.

Seems to be quite a bit of precipitation coming from Norfolk way, not sure if it's heading towards us though.

[keithlucky]

On 02/01/2021 at 20:13, keithlucky said:

Around 12th should be on it's way.

Sorry a few days late a stratospheric warming is taking place over Arctic a.t.m.,The model output a are all over the place unable to handle the change in the weather.,zonal reversal signs are appearing in the model output around.15th of January.  High Pressure moves North starting to pull  much colder air across UK as a Easterly blows across the continent. Is the BEAST Stirring  and about to blow is Ice breath on the UK.

Edited January 5, 2021 by keithlucky

[mattrout92]

GFS still showing a significant spell of snow on Friday:

 

Unfortunately ECMWF and UKMO not buying it at the moment

 

[andymusic]

latest from harmonie 6pm thursday afternoon

[Snowguy]

6 minutes ago, andymusic said:

latest from harmonie 6pm thursday afternoon

What direction is that moving towards, is it going down into S Wales?

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, Snowguy said:

What direction is that moving towards, is it going down into S Wales?

think so

[Jayfromcardiff]

11 minutes ago, andymusic said:

think so

Any chance of snow tonight? A lot of precipitation moving towards us during the early hours.