Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[A Frayed Knot]

3.2 c here and just rain feeling cold though. Not sure if this will change by tomorrow as we do need some wind from the NW so we get a chill factor to turn rain or sleet to snow. 

[mickeyflyn]

Just popped in from lurking , temp here in Newport 64m asl dropped from 5.2 around mid day to 2.9 and falling with rain turning to sleet . Twmbarlum mountain is white .

[DeepSnow]

Wish I didn't live an hours drive from the heads of the valleys or id be taking a drive round there now! 

Hopefully things will get better next week for us far southerners/low laying areas if like others have said things can continue to cool down.

[Jayfromcardiff]

No mention of snow tomorrow now in the updated met office text. Expect the warning to be dropped.

[Coilspring]

Meto have been on and off every 5 mins. 

[Snowguy]

Sunny now here in Cardiff. Don’t expect much but worth keeping an eye on the showers moving in from the West overnight.

[Simon SWales]

Snowed last night at pretty much all day in Brynmawr but only a dusting. Snow was very fine. Yet only a mile away in Beaufort they have a few inches. We were just on the right side of marginal at 369m asl.

[dbaloo]

3 minutes ago, Simon SWales said:

Snowed last night at pretty much all day in Brynmawr but only a dusting. Snow was very fine. Yet only a mile away in Beaufort they have a few inches. We were just on the right side of marginal at 369m asl.

Thats just made my mind up....I'm putting my house on 200m stilts 

Edited December 29, 2020 by dbaloo

[Cymro]

My motto for tomorrow is simply, expect very little if nothing and then if the band does develop more to the north of the low, a nice surprise - helps avoid disappointment. 

[andymusic]

10 minutes ago, Cymro said:

My motto for tomorrow is simply, expect very little if nothing and then if the band does develop more to the north of the low, a nice surprise - helps avoid disappointment. 

"expecting de worst but hoping for the best"

[freeze for all]

Lows of 2c through the night and high of 5c through the day says rain tomorrow and that's pretty much the temps all week here

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

No mention of snow tomorrow now in the updated met office text. Expect the warning to be dropped.

Some sleet and snow showers pushes down from the north around midnight.No snow Wednesday .New years eve a band of sleet and pushes down from the North East could give a dusting by New Years day.Funny enough weren't n mentioned much yesterday,,But showed up on precipitation charts,quite a large area ,but will weaken by the time it crosses our mountains,I fancy east Wales could get a Good covering.

[andymusic]

latest from harmonie for thursday now as wednesday(tomorrow) now seems to be in the bin for us - but ya never know eh

[Cymro]

14 minutes ago, andymusic said:

latest from harmonie for thursday now as wednesday(tomorrow) now seems to be in the bin for us - but ya never know eh

The harmonie hasn't been great for us though has it Andy, always over estimating snowfall and raising hopes, if Wales receives anything as widespread as indicated there on Thursday I will pledge allegiance to the Queen (and there's a fat chance of that happening :P) 

[andymusic]

4 minutes ago, Cymro said:

The harmonie hasn't been great for us though has it Andy, always over estimating snowfall and raising hopes, if Wales receives anything as widespread as indicated there on Thursday I will pledge allegiance to the Queen (and there's a fat chance of that happening :P) 

below is a quote from the model thread - and yes we in Wales may well be struggling a tad but it'll be our turn soon enough i'm sure

"Absolutely, look how snowy this week is turning out to be after all the fuss about poor uppers and GFS precipitation charts, I haven't seen a flake but many areas have had at least one fall and some parts of the west Midlands and North West have had two 4cms + snowfalls in two days and right down to sea level.

As many on here pointed out last week, get the cold in first and snow will follow and its not all about the uppers!

Andy"

[Cymro]

17 minutes ago, andymusic said:

below is a quote from the model thread - and yes we in Wales may well be struggling a tad but it'll be our turn soon enough i'm sure

"Absolutely, look how snowy this week is turning out to be after all the fuss about poor uppers and GFS precipitation charts, I haven't seen a flake but many areas have had at least one fall and some parts of the west Midlands and North West have had two 4cms + snowfalls in two days and right down to sea level.

As many on here pointed out last week, get the cold in first and snow will follow and its not all about the uppers!

Andy"

I don't disagree with you regarding the uppers debate and how lucky some of our friends over the border have been. I have seen many a low pressure system with -1 uppers dump 8inches + in Wales. 

I do take issue with the 'harmonie' though as to me, it always substantially over eggs how much snow we get and only causes disappointment. Also note, we are relying on a showery stream of precipitation in Wales rather than strong organised bands, which sadly doesn't cut it in terms of snow as the dewpoints rise with the modification from the sea. 

-7 uppers may be all it takes to change this from tomorrow night onwards, but annoyingly, when the uppers finally are more supportive for convective snow showers of the Irish sea, as if by magic the convection abates  

[keithlucky]

1 hour ago, keithlucky said:

Some sleet and snow showers pushes down from the north around midnight.No snow Wednesday .New years eve a band of sleet and pushes down from the North East could give a dusting by New Years day.Funny enough weren't n mentioned much yesterday,,But showed up on precipitation charts,quite a large area ,but will weaken by the time it crosses our mountains,I fancy east Wales could get a Good covering.

Funny how Gfs precipitation are showing snow for SWales tomorrow. ZzBut the met doesn't think the front barely  reach the south coast!

[Ian Price]

Same HARMONIE run ,but from meteociel. 1pm (Thurs). The yellow is sleet or graupel.(soft hail)

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, keithlucky said:

Funny how Gfs precipitation are showing snow for SWales tomorrow. ZzBut the met doesn't think the front barely  reach the south coast!

just checked it as well - no change from the met office on the warning so Swansea and Cardiff still included for the moment - they must still think there is an outside chance it may go north

[keithlucky]

2 minutes ago, Cymro said:

I don't disagree with you regarding the uppers debate and how lucky some of our friends over the border have been. I have seen many a low pressure system with -1 uppers dump 8inches + in Wales. 

I do take issue with the 'harmonie' though as to me, it always substantially over eggs how much snow we get and only causes disappointment. Also note, we are relying on a showery stream of precipitation in Wales rather than strong organised bands, which sadly doesn't cut it in terms of snow as the dewpoints rise with the modification from the sea. 

-7 uppers may be all it takes to change this from tomorrow night onwards, but annoyingly, when the uppers finally are more supportive for convective snow showers of the Irish sea, as if by magic the convection abates  

One correction the sleet and snow from the Neast is a cold front moving across the UK new years eve.

[andymusic]

net weather has it Wales for tomoz and u can c thursdays event for wales on there too

Edited December 29, 2020 by andymusic

[Snowmadsam]

3 minutes ago, andymusic said:

net weather has it Wales for tomoz and u can c thursdays event for wales on there too

This was from Paul originally on the model discussion thread

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

The latest GFS brings the front just about into S Wales but the precipitation doesnt look heavy enough at all.

 

Lets see whats tonights ECM shows, more than likely in the channel! 

[Cymro]

1 hour ago, keithlucky said:

One correction the sleet and snow from the Neast is a cold front moving across the UK new years eve.

I stand corrected still does nothing for the Swansea Bay Snow Dessert. 

[Deep Snow please]

Looks like that north west area of Wales near Bangor will get pasted the next few hours going by radar. Enjoy.