Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jackfrost]

The 6Z somewhat surprisingly saves us on the precipitation front with the system even covering North Wales, and keeps it around for longer, but it also ups the marginality for South Wales.

[PompeyFC]

As always with these things its a nowcast job

[Jayfromcardiff]

5 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

The 6Z somewhat surprisingly saves us on the precipitation front with the system even covering North Wales, and keeps it around for longer, but it also ups the marginality for South Wales.

Bit of good news then. The Met Office should update the weather warning in an hour or so I'd imagine.

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

To me there looks to be a southward shift in tomorrows system compared to what was shown yesterday, it may very well end up in the channel. Will be interesting to see what the Met Office updated warnings show this morning. 

[Pembroke Dangler]

For me the period after tomorrow mornings potential south coast clipper is showing more interest if you look at the fax charts, the all important 528 Dam line (etched lines) is showing to head way south of us and there’s plenty of little fronts and troughs embedded in the north flow so fingers crossed we’ll be in the game for a while I feel.

 

Sorry the charts aren’t in the correct order lol go bottom up  

Edited December 29, 2020 by Pembroke Dangler
Charts in wrong order

[Jayfromcardiff]

We're still in with a chance going off the updated met office warning.

[A_T]

Big flakes here now - the type that might settle

[Cymro]

Warning revised substantially south, we are just out of it here by a bout a mile   but I suspect it will miss Wales all together at this rate!

[Jayfromcardiff]

Quite a large area of precipitation coming down through Wales now, I'm sure it wasn't forecast to be as well organised.

[acorb]

Rain in Rhayader 

[Snowguy]

Latest warning from met-office has moved it south. It’s looking likely that it might miss Wales altogether but hopefully not.

[snefnug]

Miserable dog walking in horizontal wet snow n Chirk.  Snowing higher up the valley, but sleet here.

[DeepSnow]

A balmy 5C here in Barry, had some rain last night but that was it.

I think it will be rain here on coast if we do get anything tomorrow. Be good further inland though! Have to go to my Dentist in Bridgend tomorrow so if there is any snow about might take a drive up the Bwlch way while im there to get some snow! 

[keithlucky]

Need to keep a eye on the snow in the Midlands  atm.No rain in the mix,just snow.Should reach east Wales within a hour.

[PompeyFC]

3 minutes ago, keithlucky said:

Need to keep a eye on the snow in the Midlands  atm.No rain in the mix,just snow.Should reach east Wales within a hour.

 

Unlikely to be snow without elevation.  6 degrees here.

[freeze for all]

It just isn't cold enough for us to get any amount of snow, highs of 4-5c for the rest of the week and minimum temps barely into freezing at the coldest times of the night. Cold rain all the way 

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, freeze for all said:

It just isn't cold enough for us to get any amount of snow, highs of 4-5c for the rest of the week and minimum temps barely into freezing at the coldest times of the night. Cold rain all the way 

I agree, no chance of snow at all this week. All over hyped.

[Marcus_surfer]

Agreed also. Its just too warm

[Snowyowl9]

We have snow bring it on and seen my first drifting snow so a big bonus temp was 0.4c,only rain on low ground.

 

[freeze for all]

2 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I agree, no chance of snow at all this week. All over hyped.

I don't think its been overhyped tbh, from most of what I could see it was all going to b marginal for us but I did think temps would b slightly lower than this

[Cymro]

Certainly agree, this week the warm sea surface temperatures have really proven a bitter pill to swallow across not only lowland Wales. This kind of setup with colder sea temps could have seen many areas buried. 

Take last night for example we are not far off 200m above sea level here, the hills around us are between 250 - 520m and yet there is no snow cover. Temps of around 2 degrees and a matching dewpoint, has meant we have had continuous sleet. The streamer last night had we have been a degree or two colder or, had better upper air temps + dewpoints would have dumped cm's of the white stuff across a huge swathe of Western Wales. 

Tomorrow, sadly will be a blink and you will miss it affair away from perhaps the Vale of Glamorgan inland or higher hills of Monmouth - unless a stark correction northwards (highly unlikely in this kind of setup) happens. 

Not to sound all doom and gloom but with this prolonged period of below average temperatures (At least) things can, and certainly will only get colder as the days progress, if we can sneak snowcover from an LP that helps us create a homegrown cold pool, we could be on the money...not so much yet though. 

 

 

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

1 hour ago, Cymro said:

Warning revised substantially south, we are just out of it here by a bout a mile   but I suspect it will miss Wales all together at this rate!

Thats my thinking also, general trend has been further south, if you also look at the warning matrix for tomorrow its in the "unlikely" category. Latest AROME keeps it just off the coast of south Wales.

The precipitation currently sinking slowly southwards should start to weaken with some snow possible over high ground.

[dbaloo]

Sleeting here...sort of...I'm looking a it glass half full, it still December, chance of a colder set up establishing its self and a few months of winter to go yet 

[SnowStorm(Jamie)]

Ive noticed tonight that another streamer is forecast but i think the EURO4 tends to overdo the precipitation type as snow this probably being on the wrong side of marginal for most again:

It also keeps tomorrows precipitation way to the south, just about hitting SW England:

 

However heres a few possibilities if it does end up being further north - ECM06z on the left and ICON06z on the right:

Hopefully this afternoon/evening the models should firm up on the details one way or the other.

 

[Fujita scale]

5 minutes ago, dbaloo said:

Sleeting here...sort of...I'm looking a it glass half full, it still December, chance of a colder set up establishing its self and a few months of winter to go yet 

Rain here in Gilfach