Wales/Cymru Regional Weather Discussion

[Jayfromcardiff]

Anyone expecting snow on low ground will be disappointed on Wednesday. Derek has already said rain or sleet for Cardiff and Barry.

[Marcus_surfer]

Yep we have had enough rain. Model outlook looking good so another night to put behind us

[andymusic]

1 minute ago, freeze for all said:

We're just to warm for snow, I just hope it improves further on cos cold rain just doesn't cut it

just have a little patience - it's coming - 18z gfs another route to cold with easterly and low stationed over the uk turning everything white - it's coming ffa - mark my words

[keithlucky]

Again impressive area of snow heading our way from the N East we need to keep a close eye on that Wales being attacked all directions.Don't worry ,to much about tomorrow snow even the SW is going to get snow due to evaporated cooling.

[Scarlet_Snow]

5 minutes ago, Marcus_surfer said:

Yep we have had enough rain. Model outlook looking good so another night to put behind us

Shame this isn’t snow as we’re lined up perfectly at the moment according to the radar! 

[keithlucky]

So it's coming from the NEast just after the New year max temperatures 0 daytims.-5 night temps then snowmageddon.

Edited December 28, 2020 by keithlucky

[andymusic]

18z - watch out for them polar bears in port talbot lol

Edited December 28, 2020 by andymusic

[andymusic]

18z - scotland is buried and the rest of the uk is a white out

[Cymro]

If ever there was a more perfectly Pembs Danglerr for us, tonight is the night. It’s a shame the dewpoint is too high. We have had 7mm of sleet so far, would have left a lovely covering. 

[snow freak]

Having lived in the south east of England for over 30 years and returning to Swansea where i grew up, I forgot just how incessently rainy it is here and the chance of any significant snow, let alone settling snow is virtually non existent.  Living near the coast might be scenic and okay during the summer months, but anyone wishing for snow will be waiting a very long time or at least until the next ice age.

[andymusic]

tomorrow afternoon harmonie

wednesday

 

[RhysWales]

The potential that's there currently for January probably hasn't been seen since 2010. If it comes off, this week could look like a heat wave. There will be so many more chances than this week - so much residual warmth to get rid of from this month, plus with sea temps still high, that's an extra factor in play that wouldn't be there come end of winter.

Next month is where it's at  

 

[Gavla]

Welcome back!. I agree totally it is more than frustrating!. I have also recently just moved back having had to move to the Midlands due to work, being the right side of marginal was a lot better. But hey I was also here during 2010 and it can happen just need to be patient. This winter looks full of potential, let's just hope it becomes more than that!. Never easy listening to the rain outside when we are so close to snow!. 

*First post from me for a number of years so il go back lurking haha

[PsychedelicTony]

Just Rain from this 130m up in Llandudno. Hopefully a different story inland. 

[Coilspring]

Cold rain here. Again. I really hope Jay from Cardiff gets some snow soon. 

[Jackfrost]

I know nobody wants to hear this but I'd urge a lot of caution over tomorrow's "event". This morning's output takes the feature further south, only just grazing South Wales for a few hours with light precipitation. Also, as we've found out over the last few days, most of us aren't on the right side of marginal just yet and whatever happens, it's fairly unlikely to snow in coastal areas. That said, there's still much uncertainty about the track of the system and as always in these situations, the slightest adjustment makes a big difference (the difference between snow, rain or the dreaded "wintry mix") and somewhere's loss is always somewhere else's gain. I'll make a little map of where I'd expect any snow to be tomorrow based on output later this morning.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Jackfrost

[Jayfromcardiff]

23 minutes ago, Jackfrost said:

I know nobody wants to hear this but I'd urge a lot of caution over tomorrow's "event". This morning's output takes the feature further south, only just grazing South Wales for a few hours with light precipitation. Also, as we've found out over the last few days, most of us aren't on the right side of marginal just yet and whatever happens, it's fairly unlikely to snow in coastal areas. That said, there's still much uncertainty about the track of the system and as always in these situations, the slightest adjustment makes a big difference (the difference between snow, rain or the dreaded "wintry mix") and somewhere's loss is always somewhere else's gain. I'll make a little map of where I'd expect any snow to be tomorrow based on output later this morning.

I'm going to say snow above 200m and even then it's not going to be alot.

[Jackfrost]

9 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I'm going to say snow above 200m and even then it's not going to be alot.

150-200 m, I agree, but I think the bigger question at the moment is whether there'll be much noticeable precipitation around. Something to monitor when the 6Z begins rolling out in just over an hour.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Jackfrost

[Jayfromcardiff]

1 minute ago, Jackfrost said:

150-200 m, I agree, but I think the bigger question at the moment is whether there'll even be any noticeable precipitation around. Something to monitor when the 6Z begins rolling out in just over an hour.

I'm starting to get the feeling it's going to be a case of get the cold in and it'll rain anyway or there won't be enough precipitation lol.

[Jackfrost]

12 minutes ago, Jayfromcardiff said:

I'm starting to get the feeling it's going to be a case of get the cold in and it'll rain anyway or there won't be enough precipitation lol.

Hah. It has felt a bit like that this week, either with DPs being too high or any precipitation from the north being snuffed out by the Beacons. And I hope nobody thinks I'm being needlessly negative - if an all-snow event like Storm Emma was on the horizon I'd be shouting about it - but I'm not convinced that the time has come for deep, widespread snow in these parts just yet.

Edited December 29, 2020 by Jackfrost

[freeze for all]

Temps are to much on the milder side for us at the moment, I think even 300m might struggle tomorrow and Thursday, thats if we even get the precipitation

[Fujita scale]

I agree with the previous couple of posts, we are getting more rain with snow for the higher elevations or late night when it is cold and we are all in bed - turning to rain early am!

Also, in the MOD thread are we seeing the first wobbles to the start of watering down of the cold spell? I certainly hope not but it's not as if we haven't been here many times before.

Think we are just going to have to ride this week out and cross everything we got....

JK

Edited December 29, 2020 by Fujita scale
bad spelling !

[Icequeen]

Long time lurker back posting for first time in forever! Now a midwife and both praying for snow and dreading it too

[PompeyFC]

10 hours ago, andymusic said:

just have a little patience - it's coming - 18z gfs another route to cold with easterly and low stationed over the uk turning everything white - it's coming ffa - mark my words

Bit of ramping there. There is still alot of uncertainty in the models as shown this morning with multiple complications changing the landscape slightly as we move into early to mid Jan. Its definitely far from nailed on as reflected by Bluearmy in the model thread whose a knowledgeable poster

[Penfoel]

DP 2.2 temp 4.1...Feels like 0.4 according to my Bresser 5in1. The dreaded 'wintery mix' precipitation . Its eerily quiet here, first time the wind has really dropped ( 7kmh gusts NNE) in days. 

Ah well.. knee deep in cold mud as I go to check the dry cows.