Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[WxHerts]

Whisper it slight shift east and uptick in intensity on very latest ICON

 

[MidnightSnow]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Some runs like Arpege have almost nothing for anyone now. Can’t remember such uncertainty at under 24hrs. May as well just watch the radar

Hmm.. how come you posted the worst frame for snow? Just had a look through myself and between 1am and 9am it looks pretty damn good at this range. Weird that you posted the 10am frame which is the worst of the bunch.

[SLEETY]

We all dream of permutation 26 every Winter lol,but end of feb 2018 was similar looking and that broke records for cold,imagine it in the depth of WINTER.The country would be at a standstill,with lake effect Snow,etc

Dont think country would cope with something like 1947 again,people arent used to seeing snow like that anymore,it was legendary on North York Moors

Edited December 27, 2020 by SLEETY

[Kasim Awan]

NMM & FMI HIRLAM both calling West Country early tomorrow AM..

[Methuselah]

Well, the deep cold looks like making its way ever so slowly toward the desired position:

    

    

Down a bit, left a bit?

[Eagle Eye]

Many People Are Asking wether we should look for different kinds of Charts because of Climate Change now. 

Before the last few Years we've been looking for Charts that have been showing Deep Low's and Arctic Northernly's bringing Polar Air or at the Very Least Toppler's for a Bit of Snaw however should we Change what We Look for in Charts at winter times. 

At First we were looking towards trends in Charts that have been showing Greenland High Blocking that has meant that a Low has been sent Down towards The UK and then further on looking for a Canadian Low bringing Cold Air Along with snow.

That Has been the Theme of Watching Charts Of Course more recently we've been aware of SHORT Toppler's on the Charts but have been focused solely on the Arctic Northernly, Winter has been more Toppler's recently but these will Carry Less and Less Snow and more and More Rain as the Planet Warm's for future Generations however with the Planet Warming up we will have more Cloud's Created blocking out the Sun More and Cooling The Planet thus We can go back to 1980s Chart watching however the Planet will enter the Recycling stage and thus for thousands of Years go warmer and then colder and then warmer and then colder e.t.c.

But in the short term we will almost definitly not be looking at Toppler's after these next Few Years so what else could bring Snow well we be looking at Zonal Jet's such as the Southernly Jet for normal Year's compared to Year's such as 2010.

Of course on the rare Occasion of Arctic Northernly's Bringing Polar Low's we most likely will still HAVE Snow from these Uppers but they are very rare to happen. 

A Northernly is unlikely to happen and at the Moment will not most likely bring the Snow Cover of 2010 and Will Continue In this fashion. 

1995 Was an Incredible Event in terms of Charts, Uppers bringing massive Polar Low's Spanning From Siberia To The UK Bringing High Snowfall most likely. 

Atlantic setups seem to be the main setup now meaning that something like that would happen Once Every Few Decades Compared To yearly then. 

At those times it was a given that Northernly air would be Cold and Scandanavian Air would bring Snowfall Toppler's would be much Colder and bring much more snowfall. 

Is this Year the new normal? 

Charts so far this Year and into. The Future has shown us that this Year has been the unexpected Charts have been consistent on a New Year Arctic Northernly and it seems to be happening this Year has been Colder than Normal don't expect Arctic Northernly's to be happening yearly. 

So what can we expect? 

We have had in recent Year's a more Toppler/Zonal Favoured Snow Chance That Has Not Brought Us much snow. 

However we can expect Snow every few this Year's in the Shape of An Arctic Northernly Or a northernly. 

If you want it Yearly short Zonal Jet's are your best bet for Down South the Southernly Jet Has A Chance. 

Up North more Zonal Jet's are more likely to go there and the Midlands from Greenland and bringing some Light Snowfall Along with it. 

This Year's Arctic Northernly Charts are showing signs of A 1995 style winter. 

This has got a Canadain low crashing through and will bring HEAVY Snowfall along with A Siberian Low has got the UK a good strong low which will be kept there for a long time with a Blocking to the West being rather Flimsy allowing Canadian Low's to continue punching through. 

However this will not be the New Normal and It Is A Once Every Few year's chance. Most likely next Year we will have a Toppler or Zonal Jet's bringing light Snowfall to areas of. the uk. 

I hope this helps. 

Xander

[Scott Ingham]

The arpege to the end of its run shows snow coming from the west from the east from the north east and from the south east. Ive just set my notification for met office updates cos it appears there are troughs and streamers all over that wont be picked up before hours before. 

Hi res if anything is homing in on the sheer instability of this low

[swfc]

1 minute ago, General Cluster said:

Well, the deep cold looks like making its way ever so slowly toward the desired position:

    

    

Down a bit, left a bit?

Mr mookhouse, fire. Yes all up in the air GC but nay to bad. 

[sheikhy]

Still a range of outcomes for tonight!down to radar watching for me!!you can see that little bugger already to the west of scotland on raintoday

[MJB]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The arpege to the end of its run shows snow coming from the west from the east from the north east and from the south east. Ive just set my notification for met office updates cos it appears there are troughs and streamers all over that wont be picked up before hours before. 

Hi res if anything is homing in on the sheer instability of this low

And you are bang on , the fax charts are good for getting a clue to what's going and change daily in these situations 

[Kasim Awan]

I think the met warning being so far south & the hirlam predicting cyclonic regurgitation on the southern part of the low track is thought provoking. Potential for heavy wet snow in the south tomorrow day.

[tight isobar]

14 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The arpege to the end of its run shows snow coming from the west from the east from the north east and from the south east. Ive just set my notification for met office updates cos it appears there are troughs and streamers all over that wont be picked up before hours before. 

Hi res if anything is homing in on the sheer instability of this low

Yes pal as again it’s the arpege for me.. it gets  tighter-better as we zone in..@inciminf systems/features. There’s is plenty of shock on offer here as this milder inflow is getting swept away.. and polar backdraft make inroads....anyway bk to another important view point @kempton pk

Edited December 27, 2020 by tight isobar

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, MJB said:

And you are bang on , the fax charts are good for getting a clue to what's going and change daily in these situations 

I agree re nowcasting, however you can make reasonable predictions where these might be in advanced

[Eagle Eye]

Siberian Low 

Bringing Snow

Just goes To Show

Don't Count Ou The Siberian low.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

Scott can you update on the local threads. My energy levels are slipping. Looks a bit of a mix and match precipitation wise with alltidude. Suspect 12 hours is fi even tonight Tom. 

Yes mate ill update as and when i see something worth watching

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Siberian Low 

Bringing Snow

Just goes To Show

Don't Count Ou The Siberian low.

W'lys over us though, but hope GFS op is wrong, it's lost the plot on last 2 runs

[Kasim Awan]

I'm trending towards - 2-3cms west mids wales tonight, wintry mix with localized 5cm in the south m4 corridor tomorrow - added risk mon night wales central mids 

[Penrith Snow]

24 minutes ago, Rollo said:

As I sit looking out of the window at the rain falling My mind goes back to what I call proper winters, 1947, 1962 and 1979, certainly there have been cold and very cold months since but in my mind to really rate we want cold throughout January until end of February. john Holmes says be careful what you wish for and I have wished for another 1947 for aeons but at 83 I fear it will not happen and we should perhaps SW permitting have one cold month.......please.

Yes disappointing isn't it, here in Penrith on the other side of the Pennines we have frequent showers of rain and sleet but haven't seen any snow and I am at 435feet.

After all the discussion last week it seems that  Uppers Do Matter.

Andy

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, bobbydog said:

Whilst everyone is worrying about the next few days giving us a few snowflakes, (though I for one would love to see it..) we should be looking (wishing) for a cold pool to spill into Europe. 

 

Has anyone seen what's going on 'upstairs'?.....

 

Now that... is a rare thing of beauty... 

Post again when it’s within T+200  

[MJB]

4 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I agree re nowcasting, however you can make reasonable predictions where these might be in advanced

I agree but the fax charts have the fronts on them and has the human input whereas looking at Meteociel you'd be looking for kinks in isobars etc 

But either way I think we are entering an exciting period 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Yes disappointing isn't it, here in Penrith on the other side of the Pennines we have frequent showers of rain and sleet but haven't seen any snow and I am at 435feet.

After all the discussion last week it seems that  Uppers Do Matter.

Andy

They certainly do off convective W/NW'lys! needs to be -10 here, probably -7 further north, for the trough tonight though, -4 should do

[Eagle Eye]

Never gonna happen...

Don't even think about it happening... 

Okay just this once. 

[Eagle Eye]

What Day really does the GFS go mad, not any Day really as by about Day 5 it's A Guide just remember that. 

[Frosty.]

Hey gang, I may not be no expert, but I do know a cold GEFS 6z when I see one..and some of these members make me go weak at the knees..now I may be a drunken autistic git..but I’ve been here for 15 years so I think my drunken opinion counts for something..did I mention I’m a Spurs fan?..probably way too much information..just look at that mean for 7th Jan..just look at it in awe..it’s a special one!..

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Jon Snow

[weirpig]

12 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I'm trending towards - 2-3cms west mids wales tonight, wintry mix with localized 5cm in the south m4 corridor tomorrow - added risk mon night wales central mids 

I don't think that predictions will be to far from the money   however I would tend to but the previpitstion further West  maybe border areas   

However nowcadting for sure.

Thanks for your input