Jump to content
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year


Recommended Posts

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
23 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Large swathe England/wales now.in yellow-warning area!!.. now we can start on precipitation charts..!

 

17 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Now now according to that warning from the meto we could see the snow as far as the east midlands

 

16 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

The Arpege forme-@24 hrs =top performer..everyone to their own-n-all that !!!

Yellow MetO warning IMBY seems to have all but eradicated any charts with snow on

If I squint at the Arpege, than maybe just maybe. I've spent all weekend telling myself and others here it will be a nowcast, yet suddenly I'm downhearted and convinced it will come to nothing. Got to love the human condition. 

IF ecm is on the right track after the new year, then things are looking more positive than they did only a couple of days ago. Would go a long way to support what sheikhy, Catacol, Scott and many others have been saying about ebb and flow. 

  • Like 5
  • Thanks 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Another greeny ridge alert later week 2 on the gefs (could argue it has the hallmarks of looking potentially cut off aswell) .... let’s see if we get a decent downstream trough before the run ends although tough on an ens mean to double down on a feature two weeks away 

Response to the new year mountain torque finally filtering in?

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Another greeny ridge alert later week 2 on the gefs (could argue it has the hallmarks of looking potentially cut off aswell) .... let’s see if we get a decent downstream trough before the run ends although tough on an ens mean to double down on a feature two weeks away 

Hard to have too much faith over such a big change over 1 suite but what this set might do is appease some of the uppers guru's such as myself as mean looks to me like there will be a not insignificant cluster which flatlines quite low at the end and i am guessing there will be a couple of spectacular runs within the suite, haven't checked and individual members yet though.

Edited by feb1991blizzard
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Good post! So much smowfall potential this week at short notice! All of this before it looks to become even colder the week after!

Hi Scott. You seem very convinced the outlook is very positive in regard to a very cold outlook"which I respect"would you concede that anything past ten days could collapse and leave us relying on a west to east Atlantic with transient ridges? I've lived threw the late 60s,70sAnd 80s threw some great winter's "and great football at swfc" but do you think percentage wise given our normal west to east bias, fi being atm short range that a cold January is nailed on??? All caveats and respect but its a long shot mate even with the background signals 10hpa on the strat ete and angular movement, torque etc. Hope your correct. Uto

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

 

Yellow MetO warning IMBY seems to have all but eradicated any charts with snow on

If I squint at the Arpege, than maybe just maybe. I've spent all weekend telling myself and others here it will be a nowcast, yet suddenly I'm downhearted and convinced it will come to nothing. Got to love the human condition. 

IF ecm is on the right track after the new year, then things are looking more positive than they did only a couple of days ago. Would go a long way to support what sheikhy, Catacol, Scott and many others have been saying about ebb and flow. 

Hah, I thought that too as soon as they put the warning out the hi Res models reduced the precipitation. I imagine they just covering themselves incase a major city gets hit by 2-5cms 

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, Battleground Snow said:

Hah, I thought that too as soon as they put the warning out the hi Res models reduced the precipitation. I imagine they just covering themselves incase a major city gets hit by 2-5cms 

I really don't know why your concerned with this. The low responsible hasn't even formed yet. Go on the radar later to check formation of said precipitation

  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

I’d take that nick. It is the main course that I have been waiting to start showing up. 

Yes seen worse

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
  • Weather Preferences: WINTERS WITH HEAVY DISRUPTIVE SNOWFALL AVRAGE SPRING HOT SUMMERS.
  • Location: HANDSWORTH BIRMINGHAM B21. 130MASL. 427FT.
1 hour ago, Howie said:

I really do think that the GFS op runs are just utterly confused

 or it has picked up on a new signal and Trend let’s not dismiss the GFF entirely out of hand a few more runs I think Will thought this one.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
  • Weather Preferences: 30 Degrees of pure British Celsius
  • Location: Essex Riviera aka Burnham
19 minutes ago, swfc said:

fi being atm short range that a cold January is nailed on???

I know this question isn't for me to answer but depends what you call a 'cold January'?...you just have to look at the past decade, my heart says as many on here would like to experience another but my head says if we do I doubt it will be sub 3c...2013 the last coldish one and even that was 3.6c. You could argue we are overdue another cold winter month and the first week of next year looks fairly cold but now days it rarely lasts, just have to hope the SSW favours us (whether split or displacement) after this and then we have a chance.

Edited by Froze were the Days
  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
  • Location: Nr. Tunbridge Wells (150m/450ft asl)
14 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

I hate picking out single ens members because, individually, they have so little value. However, I’m going to make an exception with gefs member 26 on the 06z suite through week 2 as it takes us back in time to ‘47 ........

Oh my... That is amazing... Almost hurts to think that likely won't happen...

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .

My mum has a saying , laugh too much today cry tomorrow !

The set up looks primed for some surprises and disappointments.

It certainly is one of those nowcast situations , the depth of cold is marginal for snow on lower ground but the slack flow in the centre of the low should provide for sufficient evaporative cooling to make things interesting for those lucky locations.

  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
1 minute ago, Froze were the Days said:

I know this question isn't for me to answer but depends what you call a 'cold January'?...you just have to look at the past decade, my heart says as many on here would like to experience another but my head says if we do I doubt it will be sub 3c...2013 the last coldish one and even that was 3.6c. You could argue we are overdue another cold winter month and the first week of next year looks fairly cold but now days it rarely lasts.

Yes that's my point really. I concede anything is possible but the last decade hasn't really given any credence to a severe cold winter being on the cards. That's not me saying its impossible but I suspect they are going to be thin on the ground. I'm know expert on the background sigmals but I know my nhp and charts and atm even in fi I really can't see anything substantially wintry. Again I bow to the strat guys chino, bluearmy, etc but I can't on the current models see it.

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
17 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 or it has picked up on a new signal and Trend let’s not dismiss the GFF entirely out of hand a few more runs I think Will thought this one.

Indeed it has but its just the op meant to run with permutation 26 

giphy.gif

giphy.gif

147.png

1111.png

Edited by SLEETY
  • Like 9
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
11 minutes ago, wellington boot said:

Oh my... That is amazing... Almost hurts to think that likely won't happen...

Never say never .....its happened recently but not in the heart of winter

image.thumb.png.069ba343853254308bc2a82c1af77c6d.png

image.thumb.png.2cba78cf5aa292b2c8ff30c37428c8ed.png

image.thumb.png.28caaf65148f1f850262aa758776dfa7.png

Edited by winterof79
  • Like 5
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

I agree... And I also worry that peeps might be investing too much in things that haven't happen yet. I know I am!:drunk-emoji:

Edited by General Cluster
  • Like 6
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
4 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Indeed it has but its just the op meant to run with permutation 26 

giphy.gif

giphy.gif

147.png

1111.png

@swfc

This is the murr sausage i spoke about on my reply to you but i think this might be a week too early personally 

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield
2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

@swfc

This is the murr sausage i spoke about on my reply to you but i think this might be a week too early personally 

It' has  a very retro 70s 8os look about it mate. I'd sell my grandmother's wooden leg for that

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-29 07:13:16 Valid: 29/03/2024 0600 - 30/03/2024 0600 THUNDERSTORM WATCH - FRI 29 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    Difficult travel conditions as the Easter break begins

    Low Nelson is throwing wind and rain at the UK before it impacts mainland Spain at Easter. Wild condtions in the English Channel, and more rain and lightning here on Thursday. Read the full update here

    Netweather forecasts
    Netweather forecasts
    Latest weather updates from Netweather

    UK Storm and Severe Convective Forecast

    UK Severe Convective & Storm Forecast - Issued 2024-03-28 09:16:06 Valid: 28/03/2024 0800 - 29/03/2024 0600 SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH - THURS 28 MARCH 2024 Click here for the full forecast

    Nick F
    Nick F
    Latest weather updates from Netweather
×
×
  • Create New...