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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year


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Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Goodness me some right moaning going on in here this morning. Yes the gfs 00z overnight wasn’t great. But the gfs06z is looking better early doors. We have at least seven days of cold frosty and snow for some what’s not to like. And we also have a ssw heading into the new year. Think we are in for a few interesting few weeks ahead of us. Yes it’s no dec 2010. But definitely nothing mild and Atlantic driven that’s for sure. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    2 minutes ago, terrier said:

    Goodness me some right moaning going on in here this morning. Yes the gfs 00z overnight wasn’t great. But the gfs06z is looking better early doors. We have at least seven days of cold frosty and snow for some what’s not to like. And we also have a ssw heading into the new year. Think we are in for a few interesting few weeks ahead of us. Yes it’s no dec 2010. But definitely nothing mild and Atlantic driven that’s for sure. 

    This is almost a ramp!

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    I dont even know why we stressing over the gfs!!its clearly an upgrade on the 00z and going back to what the ukmo and ecm is showing!!!watch for more improvements on the 12z!!!gfs parallel even better!!

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    Posted
  • Location: North east Hampshire
  • Location: North east Hampshire
    23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

    Another change on the GFS but a good one .

    Sharper upstream troughing and cold entrenched over the UK .  Can’t see how you can lose the cold from that chart at day 7 . 

     

    In fact, good old GFS managed it within 3 days!

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    Posted
  • Location: Canvey Island
  • Location: Canvey Island
    54 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

    One thing I did notice about the 0Z, was that it 'tries' to get -30C Uppers into Siberia... Just where we want them be, during runup to an SSW?

    Now that would get me interested. I don't know if the '87 event (akin to lake effect snow ?) came from such a set up and whether it was the result of an SSW but there has been nothing like it since in my area (21" snow). 91 or 92 was good and I was too young to remember 62/63 but I know that was off the scale. When the models are showing something like -20 in Moscow -12 Berlin and -6 in Amsterdam that's when I will get really interested but this upcoming spell does look pleasingly cold with enough precipitation around to satisfy many at some point.  

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    Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
    58 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Considering what was showing last night I expect many will be disappointed if this was the outcome. Even us desperate snow loving brits can’t call 2cm a pasting surely 🤣

    073E3154-2165-4223-889F-AB38E7346D69.gif

    Been warning of this all week and was lambasted for it.

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge

    GFS, GFS(p) and ECMWF at t216. Spot the odd one out...

    My previous comments praising the GFS for being consistent recently appear to have aged like milk.

    41B4158B-DE70-4B8D-AF80-9B879966E45D.thumb.png.2ea2c96a7b1ee94cec6b587416704c81.png559E955A-060E-435C-8CA6-41913A912C6C.thumb.png.e42cdb538c0fbc7a7fb0a702c1d59513.png5E97242D-8963-49A1-87D0-0787E21E3079.thumb.png.314f0d52a7463e766df9dc57cb53cb23.png

    Edited by Frosty Winter
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    Posted
  • Location: Oxford
  • Location: Oxford

    GFS 06z not interested in any high pressure to our west /northwest winding up Atlantic 

    bringing low pressure systems on a southeasterly direction.Once again who is right

    possibly a portion of each,or one lost the yellow brick road. Interesting 

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    Posted
  • Location: sheffield
  • Weather Preferences: cold ,snow
  • Location: sheffield

    Well if that 6z gfs in fi lands il ride a penny farthing naked threw Sheffield singing"show me the way to amarillo "That said improvement in the reliable timeframe 🏃🏃

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

    GFS, GFS(p) and ECMWF at t216. Spot the odd one out...

    My comments praising about the GFS about being consistent recently appear to have aged like milk.41B4158B-DE70-4B8D-AF80-9B879966E45D.thumb.png.2ea2c96a7b1ee94cec6b587416704c81.png559E955A-060E-435C-8CA6-41913A912C6C.thumb.png.e42cdb538c0fbc7a7fb0a702c1d59513.png5E97242D-8963-49A1-87D0-0787E21E3079.thumb.png.314f0d52a7463e766df9dc57cb53cb23.png

    Beginning to appreciate why those who know what they are talking about suggest that the clusters and anomaly charts are used 👍

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    2 minutes ago, Howie said:

    Yup, the op runs seem to be highly confused after the medium term

    If you didn’t have gfs to look at then most of the op confusion sits beyond day 8 which is how it’s supposed to be ......

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Wow anyone seen the mean and control!!big upgrade at 168 hours!!

    FI looks unusual, 3 low centres in -8 850's

    gens-0-1-162.png?6

    Edited by I remember Atlantic 252
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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
    4 minutes ago, AFC Snow said:

    6z mean looks like an upgrade to me!

     

    D96EA26B-592E-4820-9100-79E5E49B1439.png

    The 00z mean for reference around the same time. Good progress, hope the trend continues.👍

    6C29E093-EEED-4E11-B581-455B35D11FA3.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
    1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

    FI looks unusual, 3 low centres in -8 850's

    gens-0-1-162.png?6

    And what’s wrong that...;) I jest..but it has to be option if created

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