Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[TSNWK]

I’ve read about the importance of jet at 144 the jet coming out newfound is about 20/25 sharper heading south than 00z

should be better this run

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, mulzy said:

The mean is broadly similar to last two suites - extremely high heights south western part of Greenland and then high heights to our north.  The high heights anomaly to the east less intense in the outer reaches which is good news as this results in a general cooling over much of Europe compared to recent times.  The low heights anomaly to our south is less intense though.  Overall, a very decent set.

Over the last couple runs I’m seeing a propensity to drop heights into scandi end week 2 from the north which in tandem with the growing ridging around greeny, could bring a proper advection of deep cold towards nw Europe between 10/15th jan.   and yes, that will mean that plenty of ops will make a west based -nao out of that with the associated gnashing of teeth on here as we see -15c uppers headed into the Atlantic ! 

[feb1991blizzard]

This GFS is looking a stonker, really sharp ridge and big breeding ground for undercutting.

[Ice Day]

Much better effort from the 6z, looking very 'interesting' at day 7

Also has a developing cold pool at 150, -8's being seen now. Steady as she goes!

[tight isobar]

Gfs bk in the ball park.. cleaner more feasible evolution.. the 00z a rouge.. pointer

[ALL ABOARD]

Laughable... 

Big snow event incoming. 

Cant take it seriously when it changes this much in 6 hours though. 

[nick sussex]

Another change on the GFS but a good one .

Sharper upstream troughing and cold entrenched over the UK .  Can’t see how you can lose the cold from that chart at day 7 . 

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by nick sussex

[tight isobar]

Watch this long fetch easterly incoming... oohsssh... @6z gfs

Edited December 27, 2020 by tight isobar

[Ice Day]

We could be on the cusp of the famous 'Murr Sausage' here?

[Paul_1978]

4 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Gfs bk in the ball park.. cleaner more feasible evolution.. the 00z a rouge.. pointer

If we can get that low to slide under the block into France then we’re in business. 

[Drifter]

3 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Another change on the GFS but a good one .

Sharper upstream troughing and cold entrenched over the UK .  Can’t see how you can lose the cold from that chart at day 7 . 

 

GFS: “Hold my beer”  

[Day 10]

Now the storm has passed through and we are into the colder air stream, best not look too far ahead if it's snow you are after. IMBY snow in this setup really is going to be a daily nowcast situation starting from today, dry, sunny, rain, hail, sleet, snow, some people by the end of the week will probably do ok and some won't. No point even stressing about day 5 at the minute as it'll just be bad for your health.

I live in the North West but it's flat and by the coast, I'd be happy to just see some falling snow this week but if not no drama.

Latest 24 to 48hr fax for people to have a gander at.

Latest warning for snow.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Day 10

[swfc]

Gfs 6 z better but a lot of energy moving South East at the 200 hr mark. Fi already but the ridge looks a bit flimsy imo

[The Beast From The East]

5 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

We could be on the cusp of the famous 'Murr Sausage' here?

I think wee all need the famous Mr Murr Sausage ?

[tight isobar]

1 minute ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Certainly looks like the pattern is diluting with a return to mild Atlantic dross in the New Year.

We have to expect that evolution against the 00z suite.. but massive change and I’d expect even more as we gain..@nxt suite @12z.   All good ere!!!

[Howie]

Just now, swfc said:

Gfs 6 z better but a lot of energy moving South East at the 200 hr mark. Fi already but the ridge looks a bit flimsy imo

Isn't it a good thing for energy to move south east?

[swfc]

Just now, Howie said:

Isn't it a good thing for energy to move south east?

It is but its pulling in mider air on the change of wind direction. Also its flattening. All academic but just commenting on the run 

[tight isobar]

11 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Watch this long fetch easterly incoming... oohsssh... @6z gfs

Nearly .. but not quite.. get the energy drop and we are in.. onward/upward!!

[IDO]

Although the 06z is slightly better than the 0z, the evolution is similar, Atlantic heights replaced by an Atlantic trough, and both ecm and gem hinting in that direction with their ops:

0z> 06z>

Just changes, for the better, with energy distribution. On the 06z that means a delay to the milder air breaking north, but a breakdown of the current synoptic all the same.

[Scott Ingham]

6 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Certainly looks like the pattern is diluting with a return to mild Atlantic dross in the New Year.

Cant believe that 0z gfs didnt come off!

[nick sussex]

It’s the phasing with shortwave energy over the UK that complicates things.

Phasing will pull the energy more east rather than se but that’s still a long way off .

The main thing is the GFS 06 hrs run evolution hasn’t been repeated ! 

Edited December 27, 2020 by nick sussex

[Howie]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

Although the 06z is slightly better than the 0z, the evolution is similar, Atlantic heights replaced by an Atlantic trough, and both ecm and gem hinting in that direction with their ops:

0z> 06z>

Just changes, for the better, with energy distribution. On the 06z that means a delay to the milder air breaking north, but a breakdown of the current synoptic all the same.

I honestly thought the low would disrupt into Europe. Looks very messy

[swfc]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Cant believe that 0z gfs didnt come off!

You mean 6z scott

[Griff]

Various 144s (approx)... 

I reckon the GFSP has a better, more consistent handle on things...  

[TSNWK]

3 minutes ago, swfc said:

Gfs 6 z better but a lot of energy moving South East at the 200 hr mark. Fi already but the ridge looks a bit flimsy imo

Huge amount moving south east as you.. probably about 200 miles of where we want it to going under on this run it’s far enough north to introduce milder air..