Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[syed2878]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

Promised by whom? That's just not true.

The North of GB with height has always shown as the most likely for snow.

For the rest of us. Very little chance in the next 10 days.

 I totally agree with you Mountain shadow excellent post with this set up in the next few days I think the high ground would be having snow any low lying areas I just cannot see it at the moment things may change though and it isn’t unusual for likes of Scotland and north north east England having snow at higher level in winter.

[Daniel*]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

I don't think we can just ignore what the met is showing us 

We started seeing this last night when the high pressure starting to fall apart to around Iceland

What a shame and quite a disappointing update but it goes on 

Well I shared the EPS which that is based on with you.... so interpret as you will but it suggest nothing alike to that cluster. That shows +NAO. 

[Man With Beard]

32 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

Well.. there's the Met Offices' high pressure on the EPS for the start of January.

This is NOT representative of most ensemble members. I looked at all 51 members for T240 and only 12 could remotely be described as high pressure dominated. If there is a main cluster this morning, it would have a trough close to the S of the UK with high pressure centred to the N and NW. When there is one cluster, my belief is they just pick any ensemble out for these charts.

[Howie]

Wait the pattern is collapsing?

[sheikhy]

Just now, Daniel* said:

Well I shared the EPS which that is based on with you.... so interpret as you will but it suggest nothing alike to that cluster. That shows +NAO. 

You would expect it to be the opposite!!

[Drifter]

Just now, Howie said:

Wait the pattern is collapsing?

No. What are you on about?

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

Wait the pattern is collapsing?

Eh? Are you viewing the output whilst performing a headstand?

Edited December 24, 2020 by That ECM

[Howie]

Just now, Drifter said:

No. What are you on about?

I just woke up and saw that eps post showing high pressure over the UK. Didn't realise it's far out lol. My bad

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, That ECM said:

Eh?

That is quite something to look at

[TSNWK]

2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is NOT representative of most ensemble members. I looked at all 51 members for T240 and only 12 could remotely be described as high pressure dominated. If there is a main cluster this morning, it would have a trough close to the S of the UK with high pressure centred to the N and NW. When there is one cluster, my belief is they just pick any ensemble out for these charts.

Agreed.. sure I read that when there is just one cluster it should be ignored.  I still don't understand the logic but came from a respectable poster.   

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

This is NOT representative of most ensemble members. I looked at all 51 members for T240 and only 12 could remotely be described as high pressure dominated. If there is a main cluster this morning, it would have a trough close to the S of the UK with high pressure centred to the N and NW. When there is one cluster, my belief is they just pick any ensemble out for these charts.

The blurb says they pick the one closest to the mean in the one cluster scenario.  Trouble is, at T240, the mean chart won’t look like any of the individual members, so might as well be at random!  Also, the chart showed by @Met4Cast was 1000 hPa height, here’s the 500 hPa height:

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

This is NOT representative of most ensemble members. I looked at all 51 members for T240 and only 12 could remotely be described as high pressure dominated. If there is a main cluster this morning, it would have a trough close to the S of the UK with high pressure centred to the N and NW. When there is one cluster, my belief is they just pick any ensemble out for these charts.

Thank you. It’s very easily clear that is “faulty” and not remotely representative with +NAO ridiculous. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Daniel*

[Lampostwatcher]

5 minutes ago, Howie said:

Wait the pattern is collapsing?

No its not

[Howie]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Eh? Are you viewing the output whilst performing a headstand?

Ps to myself, drink some coffee before you come on the forum

[Skullzrulerz]

3 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Eh? Are you viewing the output whilst performing a headstand?

It looks okay but I'm definitely not a fan of the low pressure just bypassing the Greenland/Iceland high!

[kold weather]

I'm increasingly confident of a snow band somewhere in the southern half of trhe country over the 28-29th period. Some uncertainties still with the exact evolution and subtle changes in the development of any secondary low will make the difference between a quick dusting in a fairly small area to a 15-20cms type dumping (though again limited in geographical extent).

Literally every model I've seen thus far this morning has an area of snow somewhere in the southern half of the country, so its 100% cold enough.

The biggest uncertainty in my mind is whether or not the secondary low forms as has been advertised this morning, still probably 1-2 days too soon to be real confident on that, and indeed on the location.

[ALL ABOARD]

These are the best charts you can dream of during winter. 

A hight that becomes cut off and just meanders around between Greenland, Iceland and the atlantic. 

[That ECM]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It looks okay but I'm definitely not a fan of the low pressure just bypassing the Greenland/Iceland high!

This is an incredible run. it’s a long way out so JFF but what fun

[Lampostwatcher]

Gfs 6z

Snow chances for many 

From Sunday night for a week at least 

Fantastic  charts 

❄❄❄❄❄

[BarometerCat]

GFS 6z run so far, not mild again.  Not super cold either but still better than a lot of recent winters.

+105 is not too shabby...  Keeping an eye on this!  This is close range!!

If it comes to nothing then, ok!  Onwards to the next one, no loss. 

 It's all good. Merry Christmas 

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by B-C
being positive

[feb1991blizzard]

Now is a proper chart coming up in a few frames rather than the half baked stuff up until now on this run - real stonker coming up - watch this.

[ITSY]

Potential from now till the far reaches of this run,  madness! Incoming 

 

[mountain shadow]

3 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

These are the best charts you can dream of during winter. 

A hight that becomes cut off and just meanders around between Greenland, Iceland and the atlantic. 

Indeed, if it get to day 6 I'll get excited. 

At the moment it's just the 50th brilliant day 10 chart we've had since the start of December

[Nick F]

16 minutes ago, syed2878 said:

 I totally agree with you Mountain shadow excellent post with this set up in the next few days I think the high ground would be having snow any low lying areas I just cannot see it at the moment things may change though and it isn’t unusual for likes of Scotland and north north east England having snow at higher level in winter.

The morning of the 4th Dec saw snowfall at low levels in Kent and East Anglia with slightly less cold T850s than being progged on Monday 28th, when GFS shows snow across parts of the south. So it’s possible, if winds are light, The precipitation heavy,  thicknesses are low enough, wet bulb freezing level lowered by evap cooling in heavy precipitation.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Nick F

[Cassivellaunus]

3 hours ago, That ECM said:

Much to be decided but a great watch and cold is theme.

 

Merry Christmas everyone, great post by Diagonal to open the new thread! I've been lurking on the forums for many years, even managed to lose my old account so had to make a new one to post.

I clearly haven't learnt much but enjoy reading it all the same. 

I'm looking at this chart that ECM posted, is this a true Greenland high? I remember reading a discussion the other day mentioning it's not a true greenie high unless the yellows have formed on there own over Greenland?

I'm guessing the surface temps are much colder on a Greenland born high compared to one that has migrated from the south and will contain a lot of warmer mixing.

From what I have gathered over the years this is really exciting times for coldies, we haven't seen consistent charts like these for so many years, granted the deep cold is not being shown yet in the UK but like everyone keeps saying get everything in position and the cold will come following shortly after.