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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

BlueHedgehog074

By BlueHedgehog074
in Forecast Model Discussion

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted

In fairness I suspect it would be cold at surface with this easterly drift.. but the changes at day between runs is wide at present.,in a quieter moment I will ask how you can post more than one chart

image.thumb.png.9fd70dd8d0e1117d19dfd3c8a759a5cb.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yes it's flatter at 168h however it is still building heights near Newfoundland. So still meridional overall.

Yes exactly, all part of the ebb and flow, as seen... 

gfsnh-0-192 (3).png

gfsnh-0-198 (2).png

Edited by Griff
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Snowmadsam Aficionado

Snowmadsam

Posted
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snowy, Hot and Dry, Blizzard Conditions
Posted
25 minutes ago, Harsh Climate said:

Back edge snow anybody?  Maybe a suprise covering for some sunday morning. 

GFSOPUK12_18_53.png

Tbh, I was always expecting this for western areas based on the speed this systems appears to be going through 

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
Posted
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

I spoke about waves yesterday & penultimately we're in a pattern of sharp mid Atlantic ridging and wave breaking. Don't be too disheartened during the trough of these waves which will deliver misleadingly flat synoptics!

gfseu-0-186.png

Well, quite, I mentioned rinse and repeat a couple of times yesterday as the pattern ebbs and flows, I think this will be the nature of things until the SSW makes its presence felt later into January.  Great pattern to have in the heart of winter, and many should see snow from it.  Something more severe could follow the SSW, but equally, it might not...where’s your money?

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

In fairness I suspect it would be cold at surface with this easterly drift.. but the changes at day between runs is wide at present.,in a quieter moment I will ask how you can post more than one chart

image.thumb.png.9fd70dd8d0e1117d19dfd3c8a759a5cb.png

As blue said earlier, very inconsistent of late.

650886CC-14FB-4643-BFCD-878CA3ED1489.png

8320026D-2940-43D0-AC05-FB6BD5FC1CC8.png

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SMU Maestro

SMU

Posted
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Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I spoke about waves yesterday & penultimately we're in a pattern of sharp mid Atlantic ridging and wave breaking. Don't be too disheartened during the trough of these waves which will deliver misleadingly flat synoptics!

gfseu-0-186.png

This is the usual interpretation of a wedge from GFS > the likleyhood is a bigger wedge of pressure to the NE, A colder surface flow poss ~-8c uppers & the icelandic low sheared more acute North South...

Even with that small wedge look hiw acute we get 204

1932F2C9-115A-4428-977C-F52DFC1738EC.thumb.png.c3e55faf4ebfea884f54f6b6eaf76d09.png

Edited by Steve Murr
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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted

The more consistent GFS// 

image.thumb.png.595d40e6ae384a7b22456652214c67dd.png

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted
2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I spoke about waves yesterday & penultimately we're in a pattern of sharp mid Atlantic ridging and wave breaking. Don't be too disheartened during the trough of these waves which will deliver misleadingly flat synoptics!

gfseu-0-186.png

Quite right mate,it's to do with that breakaway low at 120  in the Atlantic that keeps the amplification going here at 186 and then re emerges with the downstream trough off NE states at 204.

gfsnh-0-186.thumb.png.d07fa8b2f890d2c7512e8fef2df04954.pnggfsnh-0-204.thumb.png.bf2225bc08e97f05b2897f43ca58b96d.png

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MATTWOLVES 3 Maestro

MATTWOLVES 3

Posted
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Any kind of extremes. But the more snow the better.
  • Location: Sedgley 175metres above sea level
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Posted

Did I fall asleep through excessive alcohol...miss Xmas and wake up on April fools day...cause I think there may be a few wind ups going on in here! Thats pretty good output from UKMO..ICON and GFS to the same time frames...like I said earlier...expect upgrades and downgrades over the coming days,but the general picture remains the same....its heading in the right direction.

Charts may be a little mixed up,but hey-ho...im very mixed up individual

 

 

 

UW144-7.gif

icon-0-147.png

UN144-21.gif

8b4240a560d9d1ad310e322cdfc05ed2.jpg

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Early upgrades thats more than enough for me!!gfs doing its usual claw back slowly but surely!!!

Hello.. GFS flapping around from around 144 

 

3 minutes ago, booferking said:

Parallel leading the way greicland high incoming. 

Remember this is the upgraded gfs model higher resolution. 

gfs-0-144.png

gfs-0-156.png

gfsnh-5-162.png

Do we have any verification stats for this paraell gfs.. what creditabilty can we take from a model that is in essence being tested..

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

I will take that thankyou //.GFS will get there after its gone around every man and his dogs houses

image.thumb.png.bd7af0c45fe59ae9737c6dde5698d7ac.png

Edited by winterof79
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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted (edited)
11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

This is the usual interpretation of a wedge from GFS > the likleyhood is a bigger wedge of pressure to the NE, A colder surface flow poss ~-8c uppers & the icelandic low sheared more acute North South...

Even with that small wedge look hiw acute we get 204

1932F2C9-115A-4428-977C-F52DFC1738EC.thumb.png.c3e55faf4ebfea884f54f6b6eaf76d09.png

Yes, GFS does seem suspiciously OTT with the ridge breaking.. And considering model bias of GFS' towards westerly vectors & too weak of pooling, I would suggest the evolution shown at this frame would be a lot less zonal & characterised by trough disruption vs a PM Northerly evolution as this suits the bias well.. Trough disruption will hopefully be shown on the GEM as this is logical

For the newbies this means the GFS may be getting ahead of itself here. Whilst it's idea of a milder push is plausable this will most likely be more transient & defined by a colder pattern. 

gfs-0-234 (2).png

Edited by Kasim Awan
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Battleground Snow Maestro

Battleground Snow

Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
Posted

The gem very good at 144, I think the ECM is leading the way after a short period of GFS success, and not because it is showing us what most want, because the EPS have been rock solid the last 3-4 days. Will be interesting to see what it churns out later

 

 

GEMOPEU12_144_1.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
3 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Hello.. GFS flapping around from around 144 

 

Do we have any verification stats for this paraell gfs.. what creditabilty can we take from a model that is in essence being tested..

Anecdotally performed well with precipitation and snow depth in USA 2 weeks ago... 

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TSNWK Maestro

TSNWK

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
Posted
2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Anyone for an easterly sourced from +16 uppers in the Sahara? Ahahaha  

AF5ED064-0CBD-448F-B873-6BB0B3CDCC88.png

image.thumb.png.2e787eff62aa7241c5755f785e465d3c.pngYep.. colder uppers over uk brushed aside from the east......

 

 

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Allseasons-Si Maestro

Allseasons-Si

Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
Posted

The gfs/p at just 192...

gfsnh-10-192.thumb.png.e12d10e1671c862ab61064e01e033013.png

his twin brother AKA the gfs is having none of it though.

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