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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year


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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
5 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Hmmm stronger ridge in the atlantic at 102 hours on 12z gfs!!!

Seems to be.. 

gfsnh-0-114 (1)__01.png

Sorry watching Muppets Christmas Carol.. 

Edited by Griff
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Bit more amplified early doors importantly developed low near Greenland ridge not there....

9505BEF4-C60C-4DC1-921D-205CC3B230CB.thumb.png.3f8a0f428b5cdc4dc888f77890e38a90.pngCEBD175F-A275-4705-BA30-8E1C7A6768A8.thumb.png.df796b087d1fcd419d6b268d3042a6a2.png

Edited by Daniel*
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2 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Bit more amplified early doors importantly low near Greenland ridge not there....

9505BEF4-C60C-4DC1-921D-205CC3B230CB.thumb.png.3f8a0f428b5cdc4dc888f77890e38a90.pngCEBD175F-A275-4705-BA30-8E1C7A6768A8.thumb.png.df796b087d1fcd419d6b268d3042a6a2.png

GFS also sending more energy south which will help sustain any easterly by adding to the -NAO environment. It also helps keep the area of Griceland flow anomalies entact. 

20201226_160419.png

Edited by Kasim Awan
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The gfs and UKMO side by side at 120

gfsnh-0-120.thumb.png.f6dbc4bbf77037a29450ae2d8bbde3d5.pngUN120-21.thumb.gif.d7dc2117166dcb22ae3e6892d1e2f147.gif

i would say that the gfs is a bit more amplified than the UKMO,better run this.

Edited by Allseasons-si
typo
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

Scratch that,...the UKMO looks better at 144,c'mon models,stop playing around with me head

gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.7cc6083b905c21a2d4fa792b12e1299d.pngUN144-21.thumb.gif.ffb55cd63309af1b27ff99e13eab516a.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent.
  • Location: Orpington Kent.

Less heights into Greenland than previous run and toppling away from what it get gain.. not feeling it with this run, maybe I’m missing something.

image.thumb.png.8c8f567760747998af3307a80cd8f83e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

UKMO and GFS both excellent at T144, bringing winds from NE.  UKMO with some deeper cold too:

2601779D-9850-47DB-B294-3503B44925BE.thumb.gif.73794e1b9ab9bf981e444da81889cb7c.gif0625A367-3E46-4952-A79E-05908846EF1B.thumb.gif.b7447a02d2aee35a766ddbd1355ab7ff.gif

GFS, lets see how this develops later in the run:

97D06269-9B8A-46BE-94E4-277E42258DBC.thumb.png.a4273e85accc21c6c032891dff82694b.png9BF8AEE4-A43C-4AA5-A771-08BB80937FFF.thumb.png.23b4d28f8eb2b03ce43fe910aad9f55e.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rookhope, North Pennines.
  • Location: Rookhope, North Pennines.
1 minute ago, TSNWK said:

Less heights into Greenland than previous run and toppling away from what it get gain.. not feeling it with this run, maybe I’m missing something.

image.thumb.png.8c8f567760747998af3307a80cd8f83e.png

Griceland Wedge! Could be better for snow prospect?

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Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Just now, TSNWK said:

Less heights into Greenland than previous run and toppling away from what it get gain.. not feeling it with this run, maybe I’m missing something.

image.thumb.png.8c8f567760747998af3307a80cd8f83e.png

Strangely enough, run be run we seem to be inching to how the Met modelled the new year period as high pressure gets closer and closer.

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Posted
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, storms and other extremes
  • Location: Crewe, Cheshire
Just now, TSNWK said:

Less heights into Greenland than previous run and toppling away from what it get gain.. not feeling it with this run, maybe I’m missing something.

image.thumb.png.8c8f567760747998af3307a80cd8f83e.png

Yes, getting the feeling we're starting to see a general flattening of the pattern upstream now being advertised. 

Hoping we can pull that SSW out of the bag as it will be needed as we progress further into January

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Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Less heights into Greenland than previous run and toppling away from what it get gain.. not feeling it with this run, maybe I’m missing something.

image.thumb.png.8c8f567760747998af3307a80cd8f83e.png

 

5 minutes ago, TSNWK said:

Less heights into Greenland than previous run and toppling away from what it get gain.. not feeling it with this run, maybe I’m missing something.

image.thumb.png.8c8f567760747998af3307a80cd8f83e.png

There is a possibility of drier and more settled conditions developing during this period, primarily across northern parts of the UK, and across areas in the west near the end of the period.  Read it somewhere.

Edited by That ECM
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Posted
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
  • Location: St Austell,Cornwall
1 minute ago, KTtom said:

Strangely enough, run be run we seem to be inching to how the Met modelled the new year period as high pressure gets closer and closer.

Indeed it does 

The Met office has some of the most advanced models in the world

They could very well be onto something here 

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1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Yes, getting the feeling we're starting to see a general flattening of the pattern upstream now being advertised. 

Hoping we can pull that SSW out of the bag as it will be needed as we progress further into January

Yes it's flatter at 168h however it is still building heights near Newfoundland. So still meridional overall.

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Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.

ICON looks ok to me

anim_lvc4.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex
  • Location: Brighton, East Sussex

The heights won’t flatten over us as we have them propped up by troughing over Europe. 
 

Looks primed for a general pattern of repeated waves of amplification, which could be ideal as it will allow more cold to build rather than leaving us with a stagnant trough and no cold to tap into.

Edited by Weathizard
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Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
1 minute ago, That ECM said:

 

There is a possibility of drier and more settled conditions developing during this period, primarily across northern parts of the UK, and across areas in the west near the end of the period.  Read it somewhere.

After the rain clears through tomorrow morning most places are dry and mainly settled for the next week or so we don’t have to wait until day 8 for dry weather ??‍♂️

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