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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year


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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire

    I'm taking a break for a few hours, I'm starting to hear psychotic panto voices... 

    Oh no it isn't... Oh yes it is... 

    Go out side and enjoy whilst you can, plenty of time later for a film and some model watching whilst the storm does it thing.

    Nothing will be resolved today. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
    1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

    Looks like the ridge is toppling ??

    D2DC07DF-95DF-4D24-B516-B97672D0D299.png

    To Scandinavia? Well out in la la land by now tho👍

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
    3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Looks like the ridge is toppling ??

    D2DC07DF-95DF-4D24-B516-B97672D0D299.png

    At least with those low heights over Spain it can't completely topple into Europe. Maybe a push of heights into Scandi...

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    Posted
  • Location: NG16 -- North Nottinghamshire
  • Location: NG16 -- North Nottinghamshire

    Has the potential for snow shifted further North these last few runs or am I reading it completely wrong !?!? 
    Only a few days ago North midlands didn’t really come into the reckoning but the last few runs maybe taken this to more northern areas ?

    please correct me if I’m completely wrong !

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    Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    time to take a break from looking at gfs again,it might have been good recently for once,but its back to no consistency again ,so pointless looking it at it,with it stupid swings every 6 hours

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    Posted
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, frost and snow
  • Location: Bury St Edmunds, Suffolk
    Just now, SLEETY said:

    time to take a break from looking at gfs again,it might have been good recently for once,but its back to no consistency again ,so pointless looking it at it,with it stupid swings every 6 hours

    Clearly it's the lack of flight data over Christmas causing issues... 🤣

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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    Well this is for 60n and 65n both on the slide but 65n is very impressive!

    CBB9228E-55A3-49D2-8319-B4C15EB300CC.jpeg

    3A469312-B354-4F38-9FAE-BE7AB79BC173.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
  • Location: Exile from Argyll
    21 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

    I thought it was posted? But there’s definitely a suggestion of cold continental influence over northerly, so perhaps turning very cold into early January. ECM op had this too at day 10, but seemingly too flat with ridge.

    B82E4F8D-2EFE-4C66-9596-5AD56F876264.thumb.jpeg.7a8142c70e4e09e40a6de055d5204b26.jpeg

     

    15 day meteogram for Nottingham, strong signal for northerly wind day 9 to 11.

    render-gorax-blue-008-6fe5cac1a363ec1525

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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    Waiting for more runs of the 06Z to see wether this Model stays around the same, it most likely will GFS will be looking Around the same for a while it certainly is determined that we're having an Arctic northernly. 

    gensnh-1-1-276.png

    gensnh-1-3-276.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    7 minutes ago, That ECM said:

    To Scandinavia? Well out in la la land by now tho👍

    Not seeing a scandi high this run? Let’s hope it’s just wrong and not supported by the ensembles. @tyson99 not much in the way of proper snow showing for Monday anywhere now except GEM. It trended to far south and ended up Irish Sea and channel. Chance of showers down through the wash to east mids / south east and other showers elsewhere that won’t show up until tomorrow in high res runs. BBC forecast looks like old (18z) ECM run. 

    76683A58-3E87-4056-A67A-61DBB3163AA0.png

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)

    Have to laugh at GFS. We have gone from a 1045mb high to a 960mb low over Greenland in the last 2 runs at day 12. Expect big scatter to resume in the ensembles and FI firmly back at day 7 

    56D801AE-EE53-4B41-B46A-F8F69C8EC744.png

    88B40573-7A35-4F60-921F-6BBB858B3EAE.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

    I seriously dont understand the negativity!!!we got a cold spell unfolding in front of our eyes!!!the gfs 06z is a massive improvement and more in line with the ecm mean compared to the slightly flatter 00z between 168 and 216 hours!!the paralell is a beaut as well!!all systems go!!the only thing we need to keep an eye on now is pockets of snow that could pop anywhere in the next 10 days!

    Edited by sheikhy
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    Posted
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorm.
  • Location: Woodchurch, Kent.

    imagem8k9m.png

    21st December Arctic Oscillation forecast was showing a Low towards the start of January with 10hpa - 60 hUppers turning into 10hpa - 40 Uppers so will be a late December into Early January Snow possibility if you're looking for any up to the 6th.

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    Posted
  • Location: Reigate Hill
  • Weather Preferences: Anything
  • Location: Reigate Hill

    Maybe the gfs 06z is in the cluster the Met Office were suggesting for early Jan (post d10), for UK HP and a flatter pattern:

    anim_qxx9.gif

    Too much entropy in the gefs to know where we are going, but cannot rule this out? The background signals for the MJO Pacific wave, seems similar to last year, murmurings but lacking bite, and with the omnipresent Russian high, keeping cold in the UK relies on that NW>SE flow, apart from phantom Greenland heights, and if that is broken by delayed low-heights exiting the NW, then the pattern can collapse to something less favourable? 

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    Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(south east england)

    Loool.  A classic example of operationals-losing the will to evolve.. as a locked in pattern emerges.. go with supports now-then, revert as we engage the inevitable! .. @worthy advice.    @ Cold/wintry weather imminent... and likely “relatively prolonged “.. Pour  yaself a drink and ice down down @ chill

    Edited by tight isobar
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    Posted
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,
  • Weather Preferences: cold snow, thunderstorms
  • Location: frome somerset 105m ABSL,

    Probably a very silly question! But does data from the strat etc get put into the model data in some form?? 

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    1 minute ago, Mr Frost said:

    If you are in the Midlands you will be hoping for this track to verify!  :santa-emoji:

    28/12 04:00

    08D919EE-3032-49F8-8E89-985301983380.thumb.png.ba80ebb80e95433e1e77df16f6f27b67.png
     

    06:00

    F69FD8BF-0481-4A2C-829B-56A92E5D3B14.thumb.png.c2603f464782a72f5b8fdb8f8fd16751.png
     

    09:00

    AB77AFD5-D4C5-42C2-94DE-452FFB6D07C6.thumb.png.a631e070ae464e01711960aca42f5f4d.png
     

    As ever these charts are subject to change at this range. 😃

    Great chart/model viewing though after the crud we had to endure last Winter - lovely to see a cold/chilly frosty outlook with the risk of wintry potential throughout the UK and Ireland. 
    Makes for great discussion and analysis in here from everyone. 

    I did mention it earlier mate!!the euro4 was way further north and east and now the ukv does the same!!midlands could be in the sweet spot come tomorrow night!!why does the ukv always have a thinner band of precipitation compared to lets gfs or ecm?is it because its higher resolution and only picks out the heavier stuff!!!?just wondering!

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    Posted
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
  • Location: Halmer End - 172m/565ft
    5 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

    If you are in the Midlands you will be hoping for this track to verify!  :santa-emoji:

    28/12 04:00

    08D919EE-3032-49F8-8E89-985301983380.thumb.png.ba80ebb80e95433e1e77df16f6f27b67.png
     

    06:00

    F69FD8BF-0481-4A2C-829B-56A92E5D3B14.thumb.png.c2603f464782a72f5b8fdb8f8fd16751.png
     

    09:00

    AB77AFD5-D4C5-42C2-94DE-452FFB6D07C6.thumb.png.a631e070ae464e01711960aca42f5f4d.png
     

    As ever these charts are subject to change at this range. 😃

    Great chart/model viewing though after the crud we had to endure last Winter - lovely to see a cold/chilly frosty outlook with the risk of wintry potential throughout the UK and Ireland. 
    Makes for great discussion and analysis in here from everyone. 

    Going by the Weather Warning that's just been announced by the MetO that they think this is the path.

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    Posted
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
  • Location: Sible Hedingham, North Essex
    4 minutes ago, Reversal said:

    Unfortunately the trend away from amplification in the Atlantic and over Greenland has been consistent for 48 hours now.

    If anything, the one thing that the models AREN’T showing - is consistency!

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