Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Ali1977]

3 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Clusters for early Jan look good on MOGREPS - I think this is MOGREPS as posted by Ian F , but may be wrong!! 

EC clusters sorry, and not a post by Ian F!! Think the Xmas day drink is still in the system !! 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Ali1977

[clark3r]

The next week or so after the mild blip today and tomorrow look good, temps will be below average and the chance of a wintry mix which could bring surprises enjoy the chill

[Biggin]

30 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Ladies n gents I offer you the eps 0Oz-Atlantic domination charts . Get real abc.. .. it’s as blocked as a fat birds toilet!!..   with nigh in zilch of a mobile infer.. we are going into winter like we haven’t for what seems an age!!!! @eps ooz ..cut the comedy.. I’m be-reffed of ribs @atlantic domination.. the Atlantic is in tier 5..@ lockdown .. and I’m sure some ya should also be  (obviously banter)x

Good banter too TI 

[Day 10]

Morning all,

Pick a run any run, day 7 looks easy to forecast lol.

It's like saying to a kid in an ice cream shop, you can have chocolate or double chocolate.

Latest Fax for Sunday & Monday.

Edited December 26, 2020 by Day 10

[bluearmy]

50 minutes ago, Barmada_Casten said:

Absolutely not surprised here at all. Anyone expecting a prolonged cold snap we’re dreaming and fantasising. We may have a bit of coldish weather with some snowfalls but nothing significant or major which had been drummed up in here. After this brief cold snap and am fully expecting a return to Atlantic dominated weather as per normal here in the UK as the models are hinting at.

Do you have the charts at ninety degrees to normal ?

 

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Ignore, it wasn’t a post by Ian F!! Not sure what model this is from sorry!! 

It’s the eps clusters 

[snefnug]

4 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Yes but that old adage is a myth. In fact it's total bunkem.. I've lost count of the cold spells here. That never produce snow. 

Yes but it’s our Winter mantra, altogether now....”get the cold in first”

[mushymanrob]

Ive not read through pages and pages of comments... so apologies if this has been mentioned..

Isnt Freezing Fog likely to be an issue this week?... That could make for some interesting photo opportunities!

[Osbourne One-Nil]

I've been doing this long about to spot the difference between someone posting to get a reaction and someone posting with a valid, but alternative view to the majority. So, don't waste your time if you're simply trying to get noticed or bait people. If you see such a post, report it, don't react. 

Finally...it's a family forum so please just remember each post should be able to be read by anyone without causing offence!

[winterof79]

6 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Ive not read through pages and pages of comments... so apologies if this has been mentioned..

Isnt Freezing Fog likely to be an issue this week?... That could make for some interesting photo opportunities!

Yes I believe it will be an issue and possibly an opportunity for rime to occur. Newbies.. 

Rime occurs when supercooled water droplets (at a temperature lower than 0° C [32° F]) in fog come in contact with a surface that is also at a temperature below freezing; the droplets are so small that they freeze almost immediately upon contact with the object. Appears to be snowing. 

[That ECM]

Salisbury plain , Cotswolds? We will see.

A3A4B085-9099-4A08-A23D-3D427738B3A4.webp

Edited December 26, 2020 by That ECM

[Skullzrulerz]

Can anyone explain why the UKMO is quite poor this morning? 

Thankfully the GFS/ECM seen a lot better then yesterday

[IanT]

27 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Yes but that old adage is a myth. In fact it's total bunkem.. I've lost count of the cold spells here. That never produce snow. 

The adage doesn’t imply that a cold spell will produce snow. You may have hold of the wrong end of the stick.

How many times have you seen snow without cold?

Edited December 26, 2020 by IanT

[mulzy]

No change this morning.  Theme continues to be cold and extended cold.  Throw in a possible SSW and a relatively cold extended forecast by the usually conservative Met Office, things really couldn't be better.  Just rewind to 2/3 weeks ago and things looked pretty gloomy with a rampant PV!

[sparky1972]

good morning all, well i was hoping to read that the models had downgraded storm Bella but it looks like the models might have downgraded the cold snap by a few comments on here, but there are still plenty of positive comments to cling onto so all is not lost, still 2 months of winter and lockdown to go,  Happy Boxing Day all and here is hoping for a day of cold upgrades.

[Daniel*]

The EPS clusters are the best of the winter but yes lose your sanity over GFS 00z

[Catacol]

9 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Can anyone explain why the UKMO is quite poor this morning? 

Thankfully the GFS/ECM seen a lot better then yesterday

Please define poor. Poor if it is mild you are after?

 

[Blizzard_of_Oz]

42 minutes ago, Rapodo said:

Got to laugh at the ridiculous comments again here this morning. Absolutely nothings changed. The charts that were showing had no likelihood of being correct just as much as the less amplified ones are! Think people seem to be forgetting there is an SSW on the cards which will completly change the pattern anyway. The favourable outcome is for the warm to be pushed back with cold conditions with snow chances possible all inline with the Met Office update.

Anyone saying it's going to be Antlantic dominated weather seriously need to chill out and look at the bigger picture. There is more likelyhood of that not happening, let alone the fact this is the 0z run on the back of Xmas day where I wouldn't be surprised of less manual data being added into the models for the last 2 days.

I'm very confident were in for a significant cold spell just beginning.

The lack of manual data input into the models due to the holidays is correct, this also happened in 2010, those of us that have been on this forum may remember the same debate back then. 
Another 48 hours and I’m confident we will see a different output. 

[mulzy]

1 minute ago, Blizzard_of_Oz said:

The lack of manual data input into the models due to the holidays is correct, this also happened in 2010, those of us that have been on this forum may remember the same debate back then. 
Another 48 hours and I’m confident we will see a different output. 

If you could provide some evidence, your argument would be stronger.  This is just conjecture with no basis in fact.

[Updated_Weather]

10 minutes ago, sparky1972 said:

good morning all, well i was hoping to read that the models had downgraded storm Bella but it looks like the models might have downgraded the cold snap by a few comments on here, but there are still plenty of positive comments to cling onto so all is not lost, still 2 months of winter and lockdown to go,  Happy Boxing Day all and here is hoping for a day of cold upgrades.

No downgrades at all. Still cold/v cold at times -  don’t believe some comments on here, that are suggesting Atlantic breakthrough etc.

[bluearmy]

The vast majority of data input into the models is via automated machinery ......

red herrings ..........

[Updated_Weather]

4 minutes ago, Blizzard_of_Oz said:

The lack of manual data input into the models due to the holidays is correct, this also happened in 2010, those of us that have been on this forum may remember the same debate back then. 
Another 48 hours and I’m confident we will see a different output. 

You’ll need to show something to back that up otherwise it’s a load of waffle!

[bluearmy]

Just now, Updated_Weather said:

No downgrades at all. Still cold/v cold at times -  don’t believe some comments on here, that are suggesting Atlantic breakthrough etc.

Depends which part of the Atlantic you are referring to .....it’s a big ocean!  

[sheikhy]

Hmmm gfs seems to be ever so slightly further north and east and moving towards euro4?

[Updated_Weather]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Depends which part of the Atlantic you are referring to .....it’s a big ocean!  

As in the usual mild Onslaught type 

[Sweatyman]

29 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

Yes I believe it will be an issue and possibly an opportunity for rime to occur. Newbies.. 

Rime occurs when supercooled water droplets (at a temperature lower than 0° C [32° F]) in fog come in contact with a surface that is also at a temperature below freezing; the droplets are so small that they freeze almost immediately upon contact with the object. Appears to be snowing. 

Well ive not seen that for god knows how many years here in Brum. Would be nice to see