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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year


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Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
14 hours ago, winterof79 said:

There will be some seriously disappointed peeps if you take those as gospel. 

Forecasting snow events is extremely difficult. 

These forecasts are not one-and-done. They evolve throughout the day as the event unfolds. 

I will add that the models will only pick up major disruptions at this point. Once our cold pool evolves there will be surprises galore. Merry Christmas from Portugal. I'm back on the 3rd please save me some snow. 

Hence my last sentence....

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes here.

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

Diagrammes des ensembles GEFS de la NOAA (graphes ENS GFS). 21 scénarios de GEFS.

just click to the nearest location to you on the map,if you want to click further afield then click Euro map or world map(carte Europe/carte monde),hope this helps☺️

I cant get onto it by that link for some reason but thanks I forgot you could access it by Meteociel.fr

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
17 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The short gefs ens for my local and London look cold no doubt after the boxing day blip.

graphe3_00000_268_31___.thumb.png.1bd24916d4ddfe7e8715ca1bcfc21df6.pnggraphe3_00000_317_143___.thumb.png.ff976fce1c2f2311f75c6998afe9883d.png

The clusters are so incredibly tight, never seen this before 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
4 minutes ago, Penrith Snow said:

Those must be the tightest set of ensembles i have ever seen, remarkable agreement across the ENS.

Cold but maybe not very cold is the way forward, however, for inland areas light winds and little solar input will mean surface conditions could become severe as daytime temperatures will struggle to recover after severe overnight frosts. 

I can imagine minimum temperatures of -6c to -7c and maximum of 1c to 2c over large parts of rural England later next week

Andy

 

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

The clusters are so incredibly tight, never seen this before 

They are only the short ens,full set not out yet,full set will be out about 00:24>

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
6 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

I cant get onto it by that link for some reason but thanks I forgot you could access it by Meteociel.fr

Yeah,somehow that link didn't work but you can type it in google,then go from there.

 

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
13 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yeah,somehow that link didn't work but you can type it in google,then go from there.

 

Yep managed it cheers! Very interesting that there's a higher % snow risk for London than my area NW Kent on this obviously good for those further west, we often miss out when bands of precip move in from the west, we solely rely on those Thames streamer ENEly set ups here so this shouldn't really surprise us

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
6 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control opening heights to our north with that trough digging SE,splendid runs tonight,love it.

gensnh-0-1-336.thumb.png.da49b8d847e3cbfedaac9c8db963c949.png

that jma  strat run is a thing of beauty though in animation.

anim_vze3.thumb.gif.675f65ae67bcbfb420bb130e5ae33a2c.gif

 

A great warm/displacement.. by the time this winter has done with us.. it could be memorable.. last one from me because the time I’m done with all this glugging etc.. I’m gonna be seriously displaced meself!!!. 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
1 minute ago, tight isobar said:

A great warm/displacement.. by the time this winter has done with us.. it could be memorable.. last one from me because the time I’m done with all this glugging etc.. I’m gonna be seriously displaced meself!!!. 

Lol,i have only just got started:drunk-emoji:

i hope you have had a great Christmas mate,it has been a surreal one for sure,onwards and upwards to next year and the weather enthusiasts.

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Posted
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy November to March and Sunny and warm April to October
  • Location: Live in NW Kent by the Thames & work in SE London
14 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control opening heights to our north with that trough digging SE,splendid runs tonight,love it.

gensnh-0-1-336.thumb.png.da49b8d847e3cbfedaac9c8db963c949.png

that jma  strat run is a thing of beauty though in animation.

anim_vze3.thumb.gif.675f65ae67bcbfb420bb130e5ae33a2c.gif

 

Got to take note considering JMA was pretty much the only copernicus suite seasonal model to predict a continuation of cold Northerlies/possible Easterlies into January, I mentioned this on twitter and was mocked for posting it by someone who's a regular poster on here and on twitter who said its a useless model (in other words) Well then let's see who's right.

Also the BCC that called the Beast winter also predicted cold conditions possibly from the East this winter but not many other models looked promising lets see if those Asian models trump the Euros/American seasonals

Edited by Kentspur
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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
5 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Yep managed it cheers! Very interesting that there's a higher % snow risk for London than my area NW Kent on this obviously good for those further west, we often miss out when bands of precip move in from the west, we solely rely on those Thames streamer ENEly set ups here so this shouldn't really surprise us

Good look mate,you never know over the next week or so.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

I’ve just seen shaffa got a wig in hes Xmas stocking

089EFF0E-24F3-475C-8795-1942E19C796C.jpeg

19ED16D2-AECC-43F5-A1DE-7A07D6575E74.jpeg

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

The control run is nice viewing to the end.more please tomorrow☺️

gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.d263f266e531a16b2d6ea4f2788fde43.png

full set of the gefs ens are out + the 850's,brrrrrh!!!

graphe3_10000_263_32___.thumb.png.6503da1342151196d736e18c7fd200ae.pngUntitled.thumb.png.5b79e1fa164648e8f18705b6453e3712.png

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Serious note “ Monday’s migration LP has a huge dumping beginning to be written on it.. and has pivot/and slow notions.. parts midlands/south eastern England... my bet is firmly for the first notable accumulated snow @all levels within these parts.. with obvious sweetspot geographical luck!!!!.. this from the ecm..   I know it’s causing big headaches too for the leadings agencies...  !!!❄️❄️❄️  @rapidly gaining traction

AAD86BE1-4A92-42CA-92AE-12F16AD3C87B.png

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The control run is nice viewing to the end.more please tomorrow☺️

gensnh-0-1-384.thumb.png.d263f266e531a16b2d6ea4f2788fde43.png

full set of the gefs ens are out + the 850's,brrrrrh!!!

graphe3_10000_263_32___.thumb.png.6503da1342151196d736e18c7fd200ae.pngUntitled.thumb.png.5b79e1fa164648e8f18705b6453e3712.png

Very good agreement. The runs that go milder also mostly seem to be temporarily doing so before dipping back down. Interesting 

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
7 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

I’ve just seen shaffa got a wig in hes Xmas stocking

089EFF0E-24F3-475C-8795-1942E19C796C.jpeg

19ED16D2-AECC-43F5-A1DE-7A07D6575E74.jpeg

Is that from the 80's

love this guy though,he makes me laugh

meanwhile,...the CFSv2 has this for next month,goodnight all:santa-emoji:

cfsnh-3-1-2021.thumb.png.fcd3cbf2cc977202c7846a56fbff89c9.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

Is that from the 80's

love this guy though,he makes me laugh

meanwhile,...the CFSv2 has this for next month,goodnight all:santa-emoji:

cfsnh-3-1-2021.thumb.png.fcd3cbf2cc977202c7846a56fbff89c9.png

 

An easterly sourced all the way from Siberia, yes please 

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Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
34 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

Serious note “ Monday’s migration LP has a huge dumping beginning to be written on it.. and has pivot/and slow notions.. parts midlands/south eastern England... my bet is firmly for the first notable accumulated snow @all levels within these parts.. with obvious sweetspot geographical luck!!!!.. this from the ecm..   I know it’s causing big headaches too for the leadings agencies...  !!!❄️❄️❄️  @rapidly gaining traction

AAD86BE1-4A92-42CA-92AE-12F16AD3C87B.png

My sweet spot is 200M + in wales south/North pennines bit of sleet for the rest being realistic.

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Posted
  • Location: Ramsey St Mary's
  • Weather Preferences: Anything extreme....more snow the better
  • Location: Ramsey St Mary's

Merry Christmas one and all, whatever the weather I hope you all stay healthy,safe and entertained by the prospect of what may come. It does feel like we're about to be part of an historical cold spell but if murrs sausage doesn't quite rise to the occasion this year then the hunt will carry on but at least we believed.

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Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
27 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

Just got in..

Quick one from me; 18Z and 21Z UKV move that feature on Monday morning, further West...

1151052279_viewimage(1).thumb.png.e93f73446a5e5d79958f47890097d142.png

And here's the 0z UKV for Monday 6am for those interested:

0z.thumb.png.cc65bd8ae3eda7b526233cde42d302a5.png

 

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
8 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

And here's the 0z UKV for Monday 6am for those interested:

0z.thumb.png.cc65bd8ae3eda7b526233cde42d302a5.png

 

Ha! This one a real deciphering feature.. “however “.. usual track n-trace on these features are exit via Kent coast.. so for me destination snowfalls-are if happening already (with some trepidation)., decided!!   @NOWCAST bring the word on this 1...

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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
3 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

The ukv does seem a fair middle ground

 

Icon produces an easterly component to the ridging which is the logical progression at this range

 

icon-0-180 (16).png

Not surprised considering the delicate situation we find ourselves in..

If the ECM or GFS throws up an OP like that this place will be buzzing.

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Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire

Looking at the op@00z exit via Kent coast.. I rest my case .. obviously time for direction.. but I’ll go with this as 1st thought.. som real surprise snowfall amounts should we align overheads...@mondays developing situ!... edit ;;-precipitation models as the UKV would lead believe that such prognosis would have an illogical sway @ drop and go around Devon/Cornwall.. I’m sorry that’s non comprehensive imo..

281C8E6C-EDD6-447B-AFE9-A1A2D4D7CD50.png

Edited by tight isobar
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