Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[iowpompeylee]

38 minutes ago, Purga said:

There'll be some happy folks in Hampshire

I will take that!

[Griff]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Even colder uppers incoming from the north 

Yes JFF it does as others have hinted at on the old rinse and repeat.. 

 

[ICE COLD]

I make that the coldest 850s yet on any op run ? But only briefly by the looks of it. . 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, ICE COLD said:

Even colder uppers incoming from the north 

Yeah and the most smallest window of opportunities there is from that chart

[Mike Poole]

Holy moly the para is quick with the strat annihilation isn’t it with this at just T228:

I thought the 12z parallel was fast but this is ridiculous - we could be heading into Narnia here soon.....

Edit, perfect split on this run, this is what we want to see...

Edited December 25, 2020 by Mike Poole

[ICE COLD]

I just love it when I can post these stunning charts . 

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

A couple of good updates from the 18z 

The 30 panel PPN for T60 shows a lot more snow than the 12z > Concentrated 'somewhere in the south'

Also the T144 Mean is significantly better than the 12z in terms of Greenland heights...

S

Yes, there are some crackers in there! Let’s hope the op runs are just being poor here and we see some of these modelled on the high res runs over the weekend. Panel below (major zoom needed) and the mean ..

[terrier]

3 minutes ago, Howie said:

18z is a boom run for sure! 

A boom run if frost and fog are your thing. But very little in the way of snowfall which I think many on here crave. That 18z gfs run is very dry. But some harsh frosts for sure. 

[Weathizard]

1 minute ago, terrier said:

A boom run if frost and fog are your thing. But very little in the way of snowfall which I think many on here crave. That 18z gfs run is very dry. But some harsh frosts for sure. 

You’ve been on here a long time, looking for the exact details of snowfalls and troughs that pop up at short notice etc is a waste of time.

 

Unless you’re expecting a screaming Siberian easterly the charts we are seeing at the moment are nearly as good as it gets sypnotically for the U.K.

[Ice Day]

Lovely set of GEFS out to 192 with the cold building from day 5.  These are for my location - colder further north!

[Rollo]

That just about correct on the face of it but we have all experienced unexpected falls and I guess some will be lucky and some will not. But it’s on its way,

[Uncertainty]

GFS para going down the Scandi wedge route that GEM has been hinting at in recent days. The 12z did the same. Won’t be long until this model is the GFS so we can’t discount it.
 

Jma, an excellent run, also leaves a wedge of heights over Scandi which in turn adverts much colder air in from the North East

That trend for a wedge of heights to transfer East to the North of the British Isles is one to watch going forward.
 

Both above models split the strat vortex in under 10 days time. JMA first.
 

 

 

GEFS still not so keen. I think a split vs displacement is still 50/50, but a reversal looks odds on, which is marvellous for early January.

The propensity towards blocking patterns and amplification in FI is sensational. GEFS already more amplified than the 12z.

Merry Christmas to all on this fantastic forum.

[SMU]

My favourite chart of the day from PTB 1

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, terrier said:

A boom run if frost and fog are your thing. But very little in the way of snowfall which I think many on here crave. That 18z gfs run is very dry. But some harsh frosts for sure. 

It's a boom run northern hemispheric wise than the 12z and whilst we have cold air in situ over the UK there is every possibility that shortwaves/troughs will pop up nearer the time so just chill out with a glass half full approach mate cos we are in a greater,far greater position  than the last few years.

[IanT]

7 minutes ago, Ice Day said:

Lovely set of GEFS out to 192 with the cold building from day 5.  These are for my location - colder further north!

Can you point me to the source of this please?

[sheikhy]

Together with the warming happening and the strat split which has now been forecasted pretty much consistently we really cant hope for any better!!!this is as good as it gets for a snow and cold weather lover!!!

[Allseasons-Si]

The gfs/p as Mike said is a great split but more so in the right place with the main lobe over Europe,beautyful.

[booferking]

Solar minimum works wonders history tells us this.  Give are take a year either side of a cycle and there's always a cracker of winter somewhere at the end/start of a cycle.

#overwhelmingevidence 

[Allseasons-Si]

The short gefs ens for my local and London look cold no doubt after the boxing day blip.

[Valleyboy]

41 minutes ago, ICE COLD said:

Here is the beast from the north

Unfortunately there’s no such thing.  Just too much moderation with the large expanse of sea.

[Allseasons-Si]

The control gives us another weather bomb from the NW just like this week,yes please

the mean for the same time period is evident of it.

rinse on repeat

Edited December 25, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[Valleyboy]

40 minutes ago, terrier said:

A boom run if frost and fog are your thing. But very little in the way of snowfall which I think many on here crave. That 18z gfs run is very dry. But some harsh frosts for sure. 

Get the cold in, then snow can break out at short notice.  Plenty of opportunities and surprises.

[Kentspur]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The short gefs ens for my local and London look cold no doubt after the boxing day blip.

Do you have the link to enter your own location for this I notice the snow % has gone up

[Allseasons-Si]

4 minutes ago, Kentspur said:

Do you have the link to enter your own location for this I notice the snow % has gone up

Yes here.

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Diagrammes des ensembles GEFS de la NOAA (graphes ENS GFS). 21 scénarios de GEFS.

just click to the nearest location to you on the map,if you want to click further afield then click Euro map or world map(carte Europe/carte monde),hope this helps

[Penrith Snow]

8 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

The short gefs ens for my local and London look cold no doubt after the boxing day blip.

Those must be the tightest set of ensembles i have ever seen, remarkable agreement across the ENS.

Cold but maybe not very cold is the way forward, however, for inland areas light winds and little solar input will mean surface conditions could become severe as daytime temperatures will struggle to recover after severe overnight frosts. 

I can imagine minimum temperatures of -6c to -7c and maximum of 1c to 2c over large parts of rural England later next week

Andy