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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year


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Posted
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, frost, thunderstorms and sunny summer days.
  • Location: Louth, Lincs
    14 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

    Simply sensational, Merry Christmas 🎅 

    E980F8FD-32C9-476B-A807-1678BA65E3F8.png

    That chart looks very December 1981-esque 

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    Posted
  • Location: Midlothian
  • Location: Midlothian
    Just now, Kent Clipper said:

    It's mid winter meaning there is no solar input to aid convection over land. Coastal areas will be most prone and inland areas too when troughs and other disturbances from. (Such mesoscale features normally only show up within 48 hours). I wouldn't be too concerned.

    If it was mid summer under the sane setup inland would be a rash of thunderstorms with coasts relatively dry. 🙂

    Yes, much better than how are articulated it

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    Posted
  • Location: west yorkshire
  • Weather Preferences: extreme weather
  • Location: west yorkshire

    Another very cold run from the pub run tonight. Lots of hard frosts and freezing fog to contend with. But it is looking very dry for the majority can’t see much in the way in snowfall next week to be honest maybe a few flurries kicking around. But certainly no significant snowfall on those charts next week. 

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

    You can be bone dry in a 970mb low as the convection will be mostly around the edges (showery feeds) where the pressure gradient is stepper, and the centre usually more stable like the eye of a hurricane.

    In this area ppn will be from shortwaves. Atm Monday looks like an early & late thing for some.

    I can accept that models like GFS willl be missing some of the convection/ showery feeds but I would have thought that higher res models such as ICON and APERGE would be able to model it at this range and below is the snow fall by Tues morning. I’m keeping everything crossed that the ECM is modelling this well, as that’s the only output I’ve seen that gives anyone a decent chance of sledges and snow men by Tues away from Scottish hills / Lake District  & snowdonia 

    42EA6060-469C-4AF4-8DB5-91F537106321.jpeg

    AF1C6E55-FEF0-41B7-A186-71954DD1A5A3.jpeg

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    Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
    25 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

    Still seems bizarre that on models like GFS we get almost zero precip considering the low is slap bang over us 🤷🏻‍♂️

    9816DF55-E971-427F-BB7F-FBE2509896CB.png

    D3F55590-477C-4B28-8874-1E280CC53224.png

    2E1C0B36-EA8B-4CDD-9269-02E4FA65D75D.gif

    I just cannot believe it. Surely you look at a chart like that any other time of year and plan for a major drenching day in day out until it clears. But the models are pretty unanimous in being frugal with precipitation, so probably should trust them?

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    Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
    Just now, Man With Beard said:

    I just cannot believe it. Surely you look at a chart like that any other time of year and plan for a major drenching day in day out until it clears. But the models are pretty unanimous in being frugal with precipitation, so probably should trust them?

    Now ive come up with a theory!!do you think its the cold air that then gives the lack of precipitation in winter?whereas in spring and summer the milder air gives more moisture within the system?

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    Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
    1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

    I just cannot believe it. Surely you look at a chart like that any other time of year and plan for a major drenching day in day out until it clears. But the models are pretty unanimous in being frugal with precipitation, so probably should trust them?

    Fingers crossed the models change ... look at northern France in the above image from GFS. They are getting widespread snow ...that low has just crossed over us to get to them?!

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    Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow & long hot summers
  • Location: Cambridge
    Just now, sheikhy said:

    Now ive come up with a theory!!do you think its the cold air that then gives the lack of precipitation in winter?whereas in spring and summer the milder air gives more moisture within the system?

    Yes partly. But it's the boundaries that carry the water not the eye. There is lots and lots of precipitation hitting on the south of the low - enough for more flooding. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    We have a parallel pub run, in a parallel universe in which pubs are allowed to exist!  

    T192:

    A1DCAE1D-A62B-454E-BACF-A7478E6FF161.thumb.png.601905f7970b0271130329de008a2a6a.png0A2BDFC4-739B-45C6-86C9-60277CDA6ED2.thumb.png.d6e149068c1cb8a0007d0e4c066253fd.png

    Same result, slack lows, cold enough uppers, Griceland  block.  What’s not to like?  

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.

    Can't put my finger on why but not liking a good few recent op runs now from both ECM & GFS, ensemble suites getting worse on GEFS, eps look better but haven't gone through them with a fine comb, anyone else get this feeling?

    Edited by feb1991blizzard
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    Posted
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
  • Weather Preferences: Anything but wind & rain
  • Location: Llangwm, Dyfed
    36 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Apologies if this has been posted already... Someone's been on the sherry... 

    snowdepth_20201225_12_072.jpg

    you can't deny that looks pretty accurate with most of wales, NW England and scotland being at elevation. south east not so sure don't know the topography.

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    Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire

    A real positive, and a rare situation in the large teapot, is that we are chasing an entire synoptic pattern, rather than a single event. 
     

    (EDIT....large teapot...wtf ....the term I used has been auto edited. 😂 started with Mod and ended in winter hahahahahahah) 
     

    A slower dive into something truly cold is looking more than possible , and within this we get to look out for the potential snow events starting early next week. 

    With regards to ppn placement and snowfalls it’ll only become forecastable on the 48 hour high res models. The longer range GFS ppn (precipitation) charts for example are pretty futile IMO, although they can give a broad brush idea. 
     

    Overall, a rare and very interesting period of model watching. 
     

    And extra nice to have you lot to chat about it with 🙂 

    Edited by chris55
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    All just for fun at this range but the gfs does give us a tame easterly with some snow flurries pushing in off the north sea

    gfs-0-282.thumb.png.292fc65ab373972c99205c0327a3d7d1.pnggfs-16-282.thumb.png.7ce29e244214d11e7992487051e3b230.pnggfs-2-276.thumb.png.00f5cade1216f860effd9a9f3efc6138.png

    great run from the gfs this evening,oh! talk about this evening there was a cracking sunset.

    IMG_0218.thumb.JPG.cbddb48b40723d1c5d04f96828d963b8.JPGIMG_0217.thumb.JPG.906921b009a85f5346e63a13f12a5f8a.JPG

     

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    Posted
  • Location: Coventry
  • Location: Coventry
    1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

    A couple of good updates from the 18z 

    The 30 panel PPN for T60 shows a lot more snow than the 12z > Concentrated 'somewhere in the south'

    Also the T144 Mean is significantly better than the 12z in terms of Greenland heights...

    S

    Yes the mean is very good, good to get the trend swinging back to heights into Greenland again after heading the wrong way yesterday evening and this morning. Hope for another small upgrade overnight!

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    Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
    3 minutes ago, Griff said:

    Can't happen, won't happen 😂

     

    gfsnh-1-294__01.png

    I get it, the old 'reverse psychology' routine.  It is happening (well, out at 318, so it sort of isn't happening!)

    image.thumb.png.ced576e78822e5f2dc91f8de88b234c8.pngimage.thumb.png.f71f724a9ff1c133559a65dd51c3de12.png  

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