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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year


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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Well overdone that. Last time I checked snow doesn't settle on the sea unless the Euro4/meteociel has been on the vino too tonight.

It’s falling snow, not settling snow.  The french is for ‘cumulative snowy precipitation since 0 hours’ I think.  It won’t stick to the sea!  Really like your posts by the way, add a lot to the discussion.  

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Posted
  • Location: Steve - Folkestone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow events, cold zonality. Heat and humidity.
  • Location: Steve - Folkestone, Kent

As alluded by other the 850Hpa's are not the be all and end all (although it obviously helps).

I'd rather see a slack flow with cold pooling with modest 850Hpa's of -3 or -4 rather than a steady breeze (mixing) with uppers of -6 or -7.

Yesterday was a prime example here. At 3pm a rain shower pushed through, at the time we were under 522 dam, -7c (850's) and -2 (950's). On paper these parameters appear supportive of at least a wintry mix, the killer was the strong (force 6) NNW'ly.

From a purely selfish Kent perspective I'm encouraged to see a relatively slack offshore NW'ly flow in the lead up to New Year.  Any S or SW'ly influence off the channel warms the boundary layer. I'm also encouraged to see troughs, shallow daughter lows and enhanced convection spiralling around on occasions and a distinct lack of maritime flows in this period.

I'm still of the opinion that the models are underplaying wintriness.  What a great time of year for such an interesting synoptic pattern to establish. We will learn a lot from this spell..that's for sure.

Thereafter we have the SSW event. Again, something to keep an interested eye on. The fact that the warming is occuring over our segment of the hemisphere fills me with more hope than the early 2019 effort that occured around the other side of a failed to place a dent in a ravaging PV.

Happy Christmas all.

Edited by Kent Clipper
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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
37 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Things must be pretty good that ECM op was on milder side of pack... danger of west -NAO has massively dropped only extreme FI in EPS you see a danger there. Cold or very cold? Take your pick.

BEBD276E-EDBC-4FD7-B485-3406E53F63A0.thumb.gif.df88df5191f3e371697757d0b210b064.gif

Wow that mean at the end is very reminiscent of the Record cold February of 1895,surely not..

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ddd.png

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Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Steve - Folkestone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow events, cold zonality. Heat and humidity.
  • Location: Steve - Folkestone, Kent
WWW.ECMWF.INT

This is creeping up on us. The 12z ECM ensembles for Reading are COLD !

 

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Posted
  • Location: Steve - Folkestone, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow events, cold zonality. Heat and humidity.
  • Location: Steve - Folkestone, Kent

The 15 day extended EC 12z ensembles have trended colder too with fairly tight agreement now out to the 4th January.

Its very interesting to see the NE'ly vector appearing to be the form horse at 4 to 5th January.

WWW.ECMWF.INT

 

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Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS now tracking that low further north & more defined - clips the SE now as snow...

2C1F2554-1DC3-42FC-8236-2E0CE69D0567.thumb.png.9251f87c74131858ca1ade52791ea980.png

What would you guesstimate the duration of this event to be and likelihood please Steve? 

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Just now, Steve Murr said:

GFS now tracking that low further north & more defined - clips the SE now as snow...

2C1F2554-1DC3-42FC-8236-2E0CE69D0567.thumb.png.9251f87c74131858ca1ade52791ea980.png

ICON in with a weaker low. This reduces outward expansion and thus keeps the fronts closer to the 500mb centre and thus more land coverage. M4 as the Northern boundary, before the secondary area Mon night further north..

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Posted
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
  • Location: caernarfon(gwynedd)
29 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

It’s not even the weather!  It’s what the weather could be, or maybe not. One day  to forgive your hobby to spend time with your family when many cannot should be cherished. Enjoy it, and then come back to the output tomorrow. Believe you me, it will probably be even better than today. So much potential on show. 

I sense a bit of a ramp here ..

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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

ICON in with a weaker low. This reduces outward expansion and thus keeps the fronts closer to the 500mb centre and thus more land coverage. M4 as the Northern boundary, before the secondary area Mon night further north..

Secondary area?please elaborate mate!!!further north you mean in the midlands

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Just now, Kasim Awan said:

ICON in with a weaker low. This reduces outward expansion and thus keeps the fronts closer to the 500mb centre and thus more land coverage. M4 as the Northern boundary, before the secondary area Mon night further north..

In terms of the last low ( the one the other week that gave kent the surprise snow ) all models moved to the ECM both in track & moisture plumes,l nearer T0 the only issue with the ECM was its track was just a smidge to far west by about 20-30 miles into Surrey ( the net was an over estimation in snow > but the net precipitation total was about right )

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Posted
  • Location: Liphook
  • Location: Liphook
12 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

GFS now tracking that low further north & more defined - clips the SE now as snow...

2C1F2554-1DC3-42FC-8236-2E0CE69D0567.thumb.png.9251f87c74131858ca1ade52791ea980.png

Yeah an adjustment towards the euro. The GFS 12z ensembles did suggest there was scope for the op to move a little north, and indeed that is still the case.

It feels like the impact area is starting to just zero in a little. Still scope for it to miss completely, indeed historically that is what happens but every model run inches the confidence up further...

 

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
8 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Secondary area?please elaborate mate!!!further north you mean in the midlands

The wrap around off the North sea gives Lincolnshire South Yorkshire and Derbyshire moderate to heavy snow from 6pm till the next morning. 

Good time with it being nighttime!

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6 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

I mean is this GFS setting up a fail? how can it be this dry off this setup

h850t850eu.pngukprec.png

Because the storm with the heaviest precipitation has passed already (previous six hours), which is all rain away from Scotland. The area in the middle of the low can be viewed as the eye which has little precipitation (drizzle maybe). Hence little chance of snow if it doesnt move off quickly and show its northern arm (where the chance of snow is more likely).

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Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex

Happy Christmas one and all.  

Like a few other members, been grabbing a few minutes on here when the family weren't looking!  This obsession has become an addiction for the last couple of weeks, there's barely a run without huge interest and today's runs are no different.  I'm very confident that whatever comes our way over the next few days are merely the start.  

Anyway, the pub run at 120 looks ace.  Slack northerly flow, this will feel bitter make no mistake.

image.thumb.png.3fa990152667a077537c63ffcc7ba465.png

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
22 minutes ago, SLEETY said:

Wow that mean at the end is very reminiscent of the Record cold February of 1895,surely not..

giphy.gif

ddd.png

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Steady on   early Feb 1895 taken from Rotherhithe riverside, big ice floes in Thames wouldn’t it be amazing to see the same again? About same place where I took my current profile picture as a matter of fact, on a glorious late March day during lockdown.

18058F8C-A7BD-4478-9E0A-0953FF54FB0D.thumb.png.a368dfd544d09fa40fbcf560848315f3.png

 

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16 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

In terms of the last low ( the one the other week that gave kent the surprise snow ) all models moved to the ECM both in track & moisture plumes,l nearer T0 the only issue with the ECM was its track was just a smidge to far west by about 20-30 miles into Surrey ( the net was an over estimation in snow > but the net precipitation total was about right )

The difference this time is a slightly lower ppn intensity requirements for snow - then about 40% now >65% of the precip will be snow Mon AM. The upshot of this is greater confidence in accumulation once the low track is resolved due to the lesser precip intensity requirements.

ECM Hi Res does seem good at resolving at ranges >T60. However if it was too far west then I would bank that it might be marginally too far north right now anyway. Oxfordshire south for me but I at least see the room for a move to EC. GFS as you say also makes this progression to EC slightly by promoting a wrap up of precip across the SE Monday day. That needs a watch.

Edited by Kasim Awan
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1 minute ago, Daniel* said:

Steady on   early Feb 1895 taken from Rotherhithe riverside, big ice floes in Thames wouldn’t it be amazing to see the same again? About same place where I took my current profile picture as a matter of fact, on a glorious late March day during lockdown.

18058F8C-A7BD-4478-9E0A-0953FF54FB0D.thumb.png.a368dfd544d09fa40fbcf560848315f3.png

 

That's a smashing picture

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Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

Pub run at T78:

695FF924-0139-4C1D-961F-907189E10497.thumb.gif.aa7c489f855746b45c3d54d1013879a6.gif

Very marginal uppers but could deliver for some places.  Anywhere within a shout of -4C contour in with a shout.  

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