Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Tim Goffer]

Long time lurker (during late autumn to early spring!) would like wish all a good 1 and a happy, healthy new year. Just wanna say thanks for all the knowledge you guys share, it’s much appreciated

PS does Frosty still post? Used to love his positivity

[Mapantz]

29 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Anything lurking under the UKV buddy?

Nothing to add at the moment.

The 03Z and 15Z go out to 120 hours, so that's when I take a peek. The runs in between only go out to 54 hours and the Wintry prospects are beyond that at the moment.

That aside, I'm quite looking forward to Saturday night, strongest winds of the year are forecast here, combine that with convective gusts when that cold front slips South, it could be a wild one! 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Tim Goffer said:

Long time lurker (during late autumn to early spring!) would like wish all a good 1 and a happy, healthy new year. Just wanna say thanks for all the knowledge you guys share, it’s much appreciated

PS does Frosty still post? Used to love his positivity

Yes he does,he is called Jon snow now, @Jon Snow,he was Frosty,Karl before that.

[kold weather]

Interesting quirk on the GFS ensembles this evening, not sure if is just fluke mind you.

Nearly every run that takes the LP on the 27-29th either weaker or further south towards the far S.England ends up setting up a northern block of some sort that holds at least to 300hrs.

Most runs that make the LP much stronger or keep it further north ends up with the upper high toppling towards the UK fairly quickly after 240hrs.

There maybe some logic in that sequence as well, as a stronger vortex will rotate more energy to its north further west (larger vortex after 28th means a bigger fujiwara effect arc) and into the zone where any developing ridge would be coming from, thereby putting any developing upper ridge under pressure both from the west and east, therefore making it smaller/weaker which will be more prone to collapse from pressure to the west.

May not mean a jot down the line, but it was interesting to observe.

Edited December 25, 2020 by kold weather

[Howie]

20 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

It does seem to me like we’re on the cusp of a proper cold spell next week largely unimpressive cold wise but thereafter no possibilities can be ruled out. 

Looks like heights are draining from Russia towards Greenland 

[Kasim Awan]

1 hour ago, kold weather said:

So I still see nothing to yet sway me from the 28-29th snow event possiblity, the only concern again is exactly where any secondary depression forms. It IS possible it forms too far south, indeed history tells us these things do tend to adjust south so we need to be aware of that when looking at the output.

If there is a band over England, especially on the northern flank if the secondary depression forms, then there will be snowfall, perhaps quite alot...BUT its a very large if still 

It will be diving south east from SW Scotland.

It's very likely to track over land at some point.

The main worry is the location at which the track changes from due S to due E as this is where precip stalling is likely. Lets keep an eye on where this is modelled to occur.

[Zak M]

FIRST POST OF CHRISTMAS DAY 2020 YESSSSSSSS

On a real note, hope you all have a fab Christmas.

Edited December 25, 2020 by Zak M

[Catacol]

Happy Christmas everyone - the next 6 weeks are going to be a party..... (in weather terms at least!)

[Allseasons-Si]

10 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Happy Christmas everyone - the next 6 weeks are going to be a party..... (in weather terms at least!)

Only six weeks lol,merry Christmas mate and thanks for all your analysis and to everyone else

may the force,weather be with us,interesting times ahead for sure

                                                                                       

                                                                                     

 

Edited December 25, 2020 by Allseasons-si

[MP-R]

Happy Christmas to all! I hope you all manage to have some semblance of Christmas despite nonsensical circumstances. A major thank you to all those who have contributed so valuably to this thread and of course those less experienced who also take time to add interpretations.

Here’s to a bitterly cold midwinter period and perhaps beyond! I feel this very interesting period of model watching continuing. Hopefully conditions on the ground will also oblige. 

[Rocheydub]

Merry Christmas one and all. Here’s to a snowy season for all.

[Tim Goffer]

22 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Yes he does,he is called Jon snow now, @Jon Snow,he was Frosty,Karl before that.

Ahhh ok I did wonder! Frosty was THE man

[southbank]

Are we sure that balloon data and airplane data aren’t missing from these NWP inputs ????

 

merry Xmas

 

[StormyLincs]

First time post but a long time lurker. Wishing you all a very Happy Christmas, and let’s hope we all get the weather we hope for this winter. Stay safe, be kind. 

[matt111]

Merry Christmas everyone.

I don't post in here much but it seems customary to at Christmas. It's been great reading over the last few weeks and let's hope it continues over the coming weeks.

[kumquat]

2 minutes ago, southbank said:

Are we sure that balloon data and airplane data aren’t missing from these NWP inputs ????

 

merry Xmas

 

They definitely are missing but the impact is probably quite small. Here's an upcoming talk that will be interesting. Open to all for free.

https://events.ecmwf.int/event/230/

 

[Pembroke Dangler]

Merry Christmas all here’s to a much more festive looking 10 days

[feb1991blizzard]

Christ, listening to 87 pop and 91 rave tunes on youtube, i have just realised, only another hour until the runs start again with the CFS at 1.45.

[weathercold]

Long time watcher/reader, rarely post.

Wishing all Net Weather members and followers a very Merry Christmas!

May your wishes all be white ‍️‍

Edited December 25, 2020 by weathercold

[Mark wheeler]

Merry Christmas from me and the Navgem 

[Allseasons-Si]

6 minutes ago, Mark wheeler said:

Merry Christmas from me and the Navgem 

Love it

same to you mate...

gefs ens,steady as she goes

goodnight everyone and have a great day tomorrow/,...today ha! ha!

BEST WISHES on what has been an unprecedented year,onwards and upwards ay. 

 

[kumquat]

All that deep cold bottled up in the Northern landmasses of Siberia, Canada, Greenland and Northern Scandi I'm pretty happy we don't get that. The Atlantic is our friend on this small Isle. A small jab now and again can work wonders, though  

Happy Christmas all and Best Wishes.

 

[Mark Parsons]

32 minutes ago, kumquat said:

All that deep cold bottled up in the Northern landmasses of Siberia, Canada, Greenland and Northern Scandi I'm pretty happy we don't get that. The Atlantic is our friend on this small Isle. A small jab now and again can work wonders, though  

Happy Christmas all and Best Wishes.

 

Haha 

Merry Christmas to you.

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Nothing special appearing yet but time will tell soon

[tight isobar]

While we are quiet.. and father xmas is buisey.. just have to post this mornings horizon moon .. absolutely epic.. and trust me the camera does it a massive in justice .  Quite something to view on this crisp Christmas morning .   Merry Christmas .    See where we go today through the beer googles...@best wishes 1..and -all