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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year


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Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    56 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    This one, the 2021 SSW, is likely (in my opinion) to lead to a split with a quick tropospheric response, given the trop vortex is already marmalized,  reinforcing, possibly quite significantly, patterns that are there now already, for our region, i.e. the cold ones shown on the ECM and GFS right now, with high latitude blocking and height rises around Greenland heading to Scandi as well later.  This is by no means certain, and  a couple of weeks go it was more uncertain, but it is what I think now. 

    We will see...onto the pub run...

     

    I agree 100%.

    Given the current tropospheric patterns I'm leaning towards a QTR too, though top down warnings can sometimes throw in complete surprises, the 2019 one for example just didn't downwell to the surface, everyone including the Met Office were all in on cold arriving and it just didn't happen, so never want to be overly confident with these things.

    I think the second bout of blocking in January will lead to a Greenland high, the models are picking up on this quite well now, assuming we end up with something favourable instead of a west based -NAO, it's quite possible that with the SSW too (assuming a favourable response) we could go much of January below average.

    Edited by Met4Cast
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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    2 minutes ago, Met4Cast said:

    I agree 100%.

    Given the current tropospheric patterns I'm leaning towards a QTR too, though top down warnings can sometimes throw in complete surprises, the 2019 one for example just didn't downwell to the surface, everyone including the Met Office were all in on cold arriving and it just didn't happen, so never want to be overly confident with these things.

    I think the second bout of blocking in January will lead to a Greenland high, the models are picking up on this quite well now, assuming we end up with something favourable instead of a west based -NAO, it's quite possible that with the SSW too (assuming a favourable response) we could go much of January below average.

    Bang on the money.

    In 20 years of meteorology i have never seen the UK have several background teleconnections all seem to be lining up all at the right time to give a chance of a genuine prolonged spell. 2010 was a long spell of below average temperatures but this time we have a vortex that wont recover from them blows.

    Even in February the trop will have above average chances of blocking for this very same reason but its too far out to know that far 

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    Posted
  • Location: Bedfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, warm/hot plumes, snow, anything severe
  • Location: Bedfordshire

    18z GFS brings some snow into England and Wales at day 4... :cold-emoji:

    gfseuw-2-84.thumb.png.aa37f2582abbfe09ac3b20ddd47812c0.png   gfseuw-2-90.thumb.png.a43e76220c7c25261310d222c17b6943.png

    Edited by Zak M
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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
    4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Jesus the thickness at 78 hours on gfs 18z!!!!looks amazing😍

    Only just below 528dam - good though none the less.

    image.thumb.png.0cfd75fe421f29033869cb37ea2c8359.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
    3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    18z GFS brings some snow into England and Wales at day 4... :cold-emoji:

    gfseuw-2-84.thumb.png.aa37f2582abbfe09ac3b20ddd47812c0.png   gfseuw-2-90.thumb.png.a43e76220c7c25261310d222c17b6943.png

    Yes that is a widespread snow event for England 28th Dec, especially Midlands GFS is painting so something to watch

    Edited by Mucka
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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
    4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

    Jesus the thickness at 78 hours on gfs 18z!!!!looks amazing😍

    It's certainly a little whipper compared to the 12z...

    gfs-0-78.thumb.png.b72778f4b08742e506366076fd0d3622.pnggfs-0-84.thumb.png.d497d180e294fa0477ec3b9ea35385ce.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
    1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

    Someone could get buried under that low if it stays that way!!

    Aye, on this 18Z, i'd favour hills of Wales, but hopefully some at low levels too

    prectypeuktopo.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Stunning Shropshire
  • Weather Preferences: Snow!
  • Location: Stunning Shropshire
    3 minutes ago, Zak M said:

    18z GFS brings some snow into England and Wales at day 4... :cold-emoji:

    gfseuw-2-84.thumb.png.aa37f2582abbfe09ac3b20ddd47812c0.png   gfseuw-2-90.thumb.png.a43e76220c7c25261310d222c17b6943.png

    Yes it does!  👍image.thumb.png.8c5b6c1b304fc18c70e56acf4bd5c322.png

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    Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon

    GFS 18z so far until the low clears:

    anim_vkq4.gif

    I think it looks further west initially than ECM or UKMO but should bring some snowfall on NW flank.

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    Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
    3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

    The deeper system does mix out more cold for the south East. 

    Get ready for imby posts tomorrow onwards hahaha 

    Yep that's always the risk with a deeper system plus at lower levels you get more mixing potentially off the north sea so you do need a larger centre of slack winds than the 18Z  is showing. 

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

    GFS 18z so far until the low clears:

    anim_vkq4.gif

    I think it looks further west initially than ECM or UKMO but should bring some snowfall on NW flank.

    Not as good a run for snow its pulls in warmer air on its north west flank and melts the laying snow in the midlands so transient event this

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    Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    1 minute ago, Geordiesnow said:

    Yep that's always the risk with a deeper system plus at lower levels you get more mixing potentially off the north sea so you do need a larger centre of slack winds than the 18Z  is showing. 

    Yes we don't want a deeper system to trend. Broad scale though the same.

    Lots more opportunites to come if this doesnt land

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    Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    It would be interesting once this initial low clears that troughs could form in an unstable airflow afterwards

    gfs at 144 opens heights up all over the shop,interesting!

    gfsnh-0-144.thumb.png.00917829327b0b88c0ee38fe441c2e95.png

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    Posted
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
  • Weather Preferences: SNOW ICE
  • Location: HILL OF TARA IRELAND
    1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

    Screenshot_20201224-211634.thumb.png.5cb6710bbc3b1596702e2d320823bf3b.png

    ECM D9: mean 1030mb high, not far off just to the south. I don't sit on the fence when there's a mean 1030mb high - I'm calling a Greenland High and negative NAO to begin the New Year

     

    Open the champs

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