Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Mike Poole]

7 minutes ago, Griff said:

Enjoy... 

Merry Christmas eve... 

Crikey, that is now virtually a dead cert for a formal SSW within the first week of January.  I posted this in the strat thread but it is relevant here across all levels of the atmosphere, this from GFS 0z, the NAM plot, negative everywhere and most in the lower to mid areas of the strat:

What this shows is basically the AO, but at different layers of the atmosphere. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Mike Poole

[Met4Cast]

Lovely EC 12z enemble suite, daytime maxes struggling to get above 3c for central England for much of the run after a brief milder blip on the 26th/27th.

EC46 signalling extensive N blocking into January and a major SSW in the first week of the new year. I haven't been this excited about a winter month for a while..

[Gregulator]

As the Low clears Sunday into Monday hopefully some backedge snow showers may come our way with that northerly draw

[Allseasons-Si]

Freaking hell!!!,that GHP is getting stronger

day ten and ext EPS clusters,i do sense a -W NAO creeping in there though to be fair but hay ho,the more blocking in those N lats the better,blocked 1v's zonal 0.

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Allseasons-si
typo

[Mike Poole]

ECM clusters, annoyingly only one again for T192-T240:

But not showing a UK high

T274-T360:

Real big support for Greenland blocking in cluster 1, and the other one hardly has the Atlantic barrelling through does it?

[sheikhy]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Freaking hell!!!,that GHP is getting stronger

day ten and ext EPS clusters,i do sense a -W NAO creeping in there though to be fair but hay ho,the more blocking in those N lats the better,blocked 1v's zonal 0.

 

We are abouut to see some serious eye candy in the next few days!!!

[bluearmy]

Ecm day 10 mean has black hole anomoly on meteociel south tip of greeny !!!  That’s day 10 - nuts ! 

[SMU]

16 minutes ago, Griff said:

Enjoy... 

Merry Christmas eve... 

I will take the -30 option please.

[Skullzrulerz]

5 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Freaking hell!!!,that GHP is getting stronger

day ten and ext EPS clusters,i do sense a -W NAO creeping in there though to be fair but hay ho,the more blocking in those N lats the better,blocked 1v's zonal 0.

 

It's going... Even further beyond

 

[ALL ABOARD]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

I will take the -30 option please.

What about the negative 29?

[Gregulator]

1 minute ago, bluearmy said:

Ecm day 10 mean has black hole anomoly on meteociel south tip of greeny !!!  That’s day 10 - nuts ! 

Whats the black hole?.. im not sure what that is?O

[Griff]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

I will take the -30 option please.

Humour me, I've heard, almost secondhand, chatter this week about the duration of a reversal... Is this a known quantity or unique every time etc? I'm aware that outcomes are like rolling the dice. 

[Eagle Eye]

I've been a Member of the Community for nearly a Year now and have been through many different Forums, this area offers Outlines that you can make what you want out of and as long as it's possible people don't shoot you down. 

Like this Model people make out of it what they think and it looks to me like an Arctic Northernly is setting up because this is an outline people can interpret an Eastern Shift and A TOPPLER. 

I hope you all remember it's Christmas Eve and don't shoot people down for OPINIONS as Opinions are not the Truth and should be seen as a collection for each Run with the Average being the most likely. 

I WISH EVERYONE A MERRY CHRISTMAS AND A HAPPY NEW YEAR. 

 

[ICE COLD]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ecm day 10 mean has black hole anomoly on meteociel south tip of greeny !!!  That’s day 10 - nuts ! 

Is that a ramp Nick ? Or are you on the sauce already , cheers 

[Allseasons-Si]

1 minute ago, Gregulator said:

Whats the black hole?.. im not sure what that is?O

It's when pressure goes off the scale higher than +44

WWW.METEOCIEL.FR

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Meteociel propose le modèle deterministe de ECMWF CEP

 

[Eagle Eye]

9 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Freaking hell!!!,that GHP is getting stronger

day ten and ext EPS clusters,i do sense a -W NAO creeping in there though to be fair but hay ho,the more blocking in those N lats the better,blocked 1v's zonal 0.

 

That's Nice

In all seriousness though that is some Eye Candy before the Eye Candy to COME. 

[Mike Poole]

2 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Ecm day 10 mean has black hole anomoly on meteociel south tip of greeny !!!  That’s day 10 - nuts ! 

So good it is worth posting, the scale doesn’t go up enough for this, T240:

If we don’t get dumpings of snow from this, we never will....crazy model output

[SnowSalah]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

I will take the -30 option please.

-30 with -30 uppers wouldn’t go a miss, Steve

[sheikhy]

5 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It's going... Even further beyond

 

Mate we call that a super saiyan greenland high

[SMU]

10 minutes ago, Griff said:

Humour me, I've heard, almost secondhand, chatter this week about the duration of a reversal... Is this a known quantity or unique every time etc? I'm aware that outcomes are like rolling the dice. 

Theres always some sort of rebound like fury getting up on the 8 count but it will never fully recover once demolished 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Note to myself...Do not try and get all your Xmas shopping done on Xmas eve...especially with family on your coat tail...only just got back in.. After viewing some output and seeing you guys gerrin excited...wow...I've not viewed tonight's 46....but met4cast just brought a fab update,and thats certainly good enough for me..

Some fab ensembles from the 12s this evening,and the ECM mean is a peach.. to early to start talking about Historic...but I've a feeling this one could well end up sticking in the memory.

I've already wished you all happy Xmas...so have a great Boxing day also...and everyday after that also..

[Captain Shortwave]

On the first day of Christmas the models said to me....

 

A fully cut off high latitude block close to Greenland.

Day two can be this verifying. As the operational showed, if circumstances fall badly if the jet stream is allowed to bend north east from the mid-Atlantic. The trough remaining deeper across Europe will help keep the track further south.

The trends are ominous, this won’t be like the beast from the east, however the depth of cold does not need to be as extreme and in this instance the pattern of Arctic blocking could last a significant amount of time if the SSW hits as projected.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Captain Shortwave

[Weather-history]

2 hours ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

Just thinking that this thread is so obsessive about cold it failed to notice a major storm about to hit our shores ....discuss

Are you refering to Bella (Emberg)? 

[WillinGlossop]

Official NORAD Santa Tracker

WWW.NORADSANTA.ORG

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Follow Santa Claus as he makes his magical journey around the world!

 

[WillinGlossop]

Merry Christmas to netweather crew