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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year


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Greetings all 🎄 A new thread for the festive period. Other thread started to slow down a bit. With Christmas here, a lot of us weather-wise become flooded with excitement at the prospect of

It was the night before Christmas and the strat was beginning to stir,   While the cold was incoming where is Steve Murr?   Will it or won’t it , a split or displacement,  

Morning all. Look what the lovely weather did... Snaw on xmas eve, looking forward to another great day here in the thread. Feels like Christmas 🎄 

Posted Images

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Lovely GFS mean 

Eventful weather week coming up:

- Troughs in the flow providing surprise snow for some

- Fronts providing longer time of precip

- And showers of course from northern direction 

Slack wind as well so evaporative cooling will be aided hugely,     Also need to keep in mind not everyone wlll see something , which is fine as potential is weirdly high this winter as we head into 2021

Exciting times, I think uppers shouldn't be a big worry now as other factors will be helping bring the snow line down to sea level!!!!!1

ALSO Fax charts from met office are going to very important in helping identify troughs etc

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  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(100m asl)

    JFF,...gfs/p😛

    gfsnh-0-318.thumb.png.03587a402f40a38535ca6e093a85bc92.pnggfsnh-1-318.thumb.png.6938414b57b5927d74aae475b19d3d43.png

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    Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
    1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

    JFF,...gfs/p😛

    gfsnh-0-318.thumb.png.03587a402f40a38535ca6e093a85bc92.pnggfsnh-1-318.thumb.png.6938414b57b5927d74aae475b19d3d43.png

    Yes the parallel is keen to bring the trough up from the sw via -wnao bit on this run the cold fights back and how !

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    Posted
  • Location: NG16 -- North Nottinghamshire
  • Location: NG16 -- North Nottinghamshire
    11 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

    GFS continues the cold to very cold theme for next week,anybody who has no snow

    in their part of the woods next week will be very unlucky.

    Maybe I’m seeing wrongly but my area - North Nottinghamshire seems to be the missing out area !! 

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  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, Ice days, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 286 ft asl
    9 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

    Still not cold enough!

    I was thinking the same thing; all these promising looking synoptics on offer and there's no real cold uppers - what's going on?

     

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  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

    Well, hardly a BFTE at Day 10.. but better than being whacked around the head with a soiled nappy!:santa-emoji:

    h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

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  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
  • Location: Coney Hall Village 260ft asl, North West Kent
    1 hour ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

    I'm 13

    Of course I Have. 

    Arrows

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    Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
    37 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Yes - ongoing amplification even before we get to the downwelling impacts of whatever is in store in the strat. It’s like watching the Harry Potter films....just as one finishes another begins and each successive film gets better than the one before.....

    Amazing consistency, I quite agree. Let's hope 🤞

    Somewhat baffled by the few (I have to admit there aren't many) negative comments, here and on social media. The evolution as yet hasn't really backed off at all, seems to open up plausible, but in normal winters, fantasy synoptics. 

    Probably just me, so I'll only speak for myself, but it's possible I'm getting a bit greedy and my expectations are hugely distorted? Cue the comments about everything being pushed back to fi, but so far the models are doing a good job (better than I would have imagined), and if today is any example, possibly they are being a bit conservative and underplaying some real opportunities? 

    And yes, I may have changed my tune since the 00z...

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  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

    Typical that the Scottish mountains are going to be buried in  snow in the days, weeks? ahead and some of the ski centres are closing now until further notice because of covid. 

    The gem is a  GEM BTW! 

    Edited by SLEETY
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  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
    57 minutes ago, Catacol said:

    Yes - ongoing amplification even before we get to the downwelling impacts of whatever is in store in the strat. It’s like watching the Harry Potter films....just as one finishes another begins and each successive film gets better than the one before.....

    If I had a title book for winter 2020 it would be 

    Eat Sleep Amplification Repeat 

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    Posted
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Strood, Kent, 19 feet above sea level
    2 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

    Just thinking that this thread is so obsessive about cold it failed to notice a major storm about to hit our shores ....discuss

    There are other threads for discussing short term severe weather impacts. The storm has been mentioned quite a lot in here given the exact tracking of the boxing day low determines how much snow potential there is in the days after..

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