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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year


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Lovely GFS mean 

Eventful weather week coming up:

- Troughs in the flow providing surprise snow for some

- Fronts providing longer time of precip

- And showers of course from northern direction 

Slack wind as well so evaporative cooling will be aided hugely,     Also need to keep in mind not everyone wlll see something , which is fine as potential is weirdly high this winter as we head into 2021

Exciting times, I think uppers shouldn't be a big worry now as other factors will be helping bring the snow line down to sea level!!!!!1

ALSO Fax charts from met office are going to very important in helping identify troughs etc

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Posted
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)
  • Weather Preferences: severe storms,snow wind and ice
  • Location: Hoyland,barnsley,south yorkshire(134m asl)

JFF,...gfs/p

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Posted
  • Location: NG16 -- North Nottinghamshire
  • Location: NG16 -- North Nottinghamshire
11 minutes ago, Anthony Burden said:

GFS continues the cold to very cold theme for next week,anybody who has no snow

in their part of the woods next week will be very unlucky.

Maybe I’m seeing wrongly but my area - North Nottinghamshire seems to be the missing out area !! 

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Posted
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, snow, warm sunny days.
  • Location: Croydon. South London. 161 ft asl
9 minutes ago, snowblizzard said:

Still not cold enough!

I was thinking the same thing; all these promising looking synoptics on offer and there's no real cold uppers - what's going on?

 

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Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.

Well, hardly a BFTE at Day 10.. but better than being whacked around the head with a soiled nappy!:santa-emoji:

h500slp.png     h850t850eu.png

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Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
37 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - ongoing amplification even before we get to the downwelling impacts of whatever is in store in the strat. It’s like watching the Harry Potter films....just as one finishes another begins and each successive film gets better than the one before.....

Amazing consistency, I quite agree. Let's hope

Somewhat baffled by the few (I have to admit there aren't many) negative comments, here and on social media. The evolution as yet hasn't really backed off at all, seems to open up plausible, but in normal winters, fantasy synoptics. 

Probably just me, so I'll only speak for myself, but it's possible I'm getting a bit greedy and my expectations are hugely distorted? Cue the comments about everything being pushed back to fi, but so far the models are doing a good job (better than I would have imagined), and if today is any example, possibly they are being a bit conservative and underplaying some real opportunities? 

And yes, I may have changed my tune since the 00z...

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Posted
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast
  • Location: NR Worthing SE Coast

Typical that the Scottish mountains are going to be buried in  snow in the days, weeks? ahead and some of the ski centres are closing now until further notice because of covid. 

The gem is a  GEM BTW! 

Edited by SLEETY
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
57 minutes ago, Catacol said:

Yes - ongoing amplification even before we get to the downwelling impacts of whatever is in store in the strat. It’s like watching the Harry Potter films....just as one finishes another begins and each successive film gets better than the one before.....

If I had a title book for winter 2020 it would be 

Eat Sleep Amplification Repeat 

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Posted
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, Thunderstorms,
  • Location: Gillingham, Kent
2 minutes ago, Brassmonkeylily said:

Just thinking that this thread is so obsessive about cold it failed to notice a major storm about to hit our shores ....discuss

There are other threads for discussing short term severe weather impacts. The storm has been mentioned quite a lot in here given the exact tracking of the boxing day low determines how much snow potential there is in the days after..

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