Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Radiating Dendrite]

3 minutes ago, The BEAST From The East said:

I'm so Wet right now!!

 

Drying off a bit now though...  Got caught in a shower

Uppers to high?

[jethro]

1 minute ago, Davegwarn said:

Beautiful picture, how did you get to the bottom of your garden without leaving footprints?

Thank you. I'm a professional gardener....always add in secret paths tucked behind shrubs, makes pruning so much easier with the added bonus of pristine snowscapes  

[philglossop]

30 minutes ago, smhouston said:

I honestly wouldn't be worried about 5th Jan onwards at the minute with and even the subtlest of changes before that will effect it. FI will always be wild even if locked in to a severe winter. Models don't handle cold all that well and if we get in to a position where we are in a cold period the models *usually* are too progressive. 

 

For me the period before hand is really encouraging based on those London ones. Great clustering together of the ensembles (850s). Obviously the uncertainty is elsewhere i.e. Aberdeen. However, even that is encouraging in that even though at even T72 we see quite big differences of near enough 8~  around the 27th-29th they still end with a relatively cold outcome:

 

 

Get that period up to the New Year locked in first then hopefully we shall get further positive steps towards something more substantial widespread with the preceding coldness helping any snow potential

Correct, and equally remember December 2010 had some milder days in the middle week. 

[mushymanrob]

1 minute ago, blizzard81 said:

Maybe this is what the met office are seeing as we move into early January with their steadfast forecast of a high moving into the UK. 

Until the anomaly charts start suggesting that, and they dont, it wont happen.

 

[Chesil View]

3 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Uppers to high?

No doubt some one will pop in say they have to be minus 10. RD

Edited December 24, 2020 by Broadmayne blizzard

[Allseasons-Si]

The GEM is an improvement...

[philglossop]

10 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

Simply beautiful, really couldn’t ask for anymore than this.

If that swings along the channel, that's game on for the far SW for a change. 

This along with a smashing PV, QBO going E and coming out of solar minimum is lining up to be a special January for once! 

[ITSY]

Control running with the upgrades and subtle changes above svalbard and iceland...look N/NE/E?

 

 

 

[Climate Man]

5 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Until the anomaly charts start suggesting that, and they dont, it wont happen.

 

Huge difference between 06 and 12 for this period.  Too soon to worry. Let's concentrate on next 10 days first.

[Allseasons-Si]

22 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Watch that breakaway low at 192 over N Greenland ascend S/SW,could be a corker of a run this.

Not this time but them heights seem to be creeping further north into Greenland more on recent runs,it's something that i will be keeping an eye on.

[booferking]

10 minutes ago, blizzard81 said:

Maybe this is what the met office are seeing as we move into early January with their steadfast forecast of a high moving into the UK. 

Not for long reload incoming. 

[blizzard81]

The gfs 12z looks a more plausible solution to me. Rinse and repeat attacks from the north west. 

[swfc]

7 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Until the anomaly charts start suggesting that, and they dont, it wont happen.

 

Yes as ever never jump the gun esp with the new favourite "gfs" still looks cold and frosty which is more than welcome

[swfc]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Not for long reload incoming. 

Yes looks OK for the 6th of January?? Where is fi these days is it restricted to the ukmo??? 

[That ECM]

For me the t144 -T168 is where we should look. I would prefer this morning’s gfs. This will be key imo on how high the ridge gets. 
 

More than happy for people to show why it will be all ok. I’ve looked in the perbs and there is more than a few where it doesn’t.

 

Anyway, Happy Christmas to you all.

[Met4Cast]

Solid GEFS mean. Low sufficiently east, temperatures cooling in situ as the flow slackens off allowing for evaporative cooling within any disturbances & troughs that develop.

[booferking]

Gfs Para 12z 

[Matt H]

NASA is even on board with ridging up towards Greenland now, which means everything is bound to go wrong from here on in.

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

Gfs Para 12z 

I am glad that you reminded us about that run,i keep on bloody forgetting about it lol.

[winterof79]

144z Showing you cannot look further for specifics

GFS

UKMO

GFS//

[Mike Poole]

1 minute ago, Allseasons-si said:

I am glad that you reminded us about that run,i keep on bloody forgetting about it lol.

I think it is only today it has gone from pre-parallel to parallel and now runs all four times a day.  

[The Northern Ramper]

43 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

GFS 12z upgrades the uppers with -8C across southern England by this time next week.

That should satisfy the uppers crew.

[sheikhy]

What a brilliant 12z!!ukmo looks like it will ridge into greenland after!!!!the mean is amazing

[swfc]

1 minute ago, winterof79 said:

144z Showing you cannot look further for specifics

GFS

UKMO

GFS//

Thanks for that post. Folk need to remember these charts haven't varified. Anythin beyond 4 - 7 days is irrelivent. Speed dial imminent for samaritens I suspect. 

[booferking]

5 minutes ago, swfc said:

Yes looks OK for the 6th of January?? Where is fi these days is it restricted to the ukmo??? 

I'd say the pattern is pretty much agreed on to about the first couple of days of the new year,  just finer detail of were the surprise snowfalls will occur.

Anything after that is still up for grabs could still go either way.