Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Eskimo]

I want to just point out with the ICON that it switches over to a low-res run after 78h. After that time it tends to blow up precipitation/snow rates and inevitably snow depths. 

I wouldn't take it too seriously after 78 hours. 

[Frosty.]

Don’t you just love winter hazards or wintry hazards??!...I know I do..and so it seems does the GEFS 6z to...among other output!...ps..I would like to take this opportunity to wish a very merry Christmas to all my netweather friends..and also those who aren’t my friends since it’s the season of goodwill to all men, women, children, dogs, cats, cows, birds..pigs..you catch my drift!   ... turkey’s.. ..gobble gobble !!..peace!..now it’s time for the 12z mega feeding frenzy..I may post later..it’s good, in these terrible COVID times that we have something to be happy about..even Brexit..yawn!..as long as your’e a coldie!  

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Jon Snow

[booferking]

6 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Oh by the way hardly any snow on the icon now for monday!!!!

Track has changed still there for Ireland & Wales goes south instead of south east 

[jethro]

Every Christmas I ask Santa for snow, all I really want is to open my curtains and find my garden looking like this again. I think, looking at the blobby, squigley line pictures, this year has come closer to making dreams come true than many a year, but alas not close enough. If you're like me, dreaming of that elusive white Christmas, don't give up....switch to the Julian calendar, celebrate Christmas on the old and orthodox date of January 6th 

 

 

 

Edited December 24, 2020 by jethro
Vid not working

[Eagle Eye]

Waiting for further 12z Runs looking at the 6Z perhaps a few changes expecting this to happen. 

[Mike Poole]

UKMO and GFS T96:

Prefer the UKMO as it has the centre of the low that bit further east.  

Good start to the 12s.  

[mountain shadow]

26 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

  in these terrible COVID times that we have something to be happy about..even Brexit..yawn!..as long as your’e a coldie!  

 

I am personally not happy about xxxxxxx but if we get 2 months of blizzards I may cheer up a bit.

Edited December 24, 2020 by Blessed Weather
B word removed

[Eagle Eye]

You can see 2 Ridges setting up on the next Update.

[The Northern Ramper]

4 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO and GFS T96:

Prefer the UKMO as it has the centre of the low that bit further east.  

Good start to the 12s.  

It’s great to get this setup at T96, let the good times roll.

[radiohead]

Flooding looks like being the primary concern on the GFS in the short term with bands of heavy rain for Saturday into Sunday morning. Snow for Scotland and NI and then a more wintry mix of showers following on after the deluge and cooler air encroaches.

 

 

[Eagle Eye]

You can see a Bucket Like Ridge meaning up to Weeks Of Snow. 

[snowice]

Looking good for east ireland on Monday on 12z

[smhouston]

37 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Hoping to see a reduction in the milder members at the end of the next GEFS suite , about 40% went above average from 5th Jan  on the 06z suite. Not getting worried yet...just don’t want it to become a trend or increase. 

I honestly wouldn't be worried about 5th Jan onwards at the minute with and even the subtlest of changes before that will effect it. FI will always be wild even if locked in to a severe winter. Models don't handle cold all that well and if we get in to a position where we are in a cold period the models *usually* are too progressive. 

 

For me the period before hand is really encouraging based on those London ones. Great clustering together of the ensembles (850s). Obviously the uncertainty is elsewhere i.e. Aberdeen. However, even that is encouraging in that even though at even T72 we see quite big differences of near enough 8~  around the 27th-29th they still end with a relatively cold outcome:

 

 

Get that period up to the New Year locked in first then hopefully we shall get further positive steps towards something more substantial widespread with the preceding coldness helping any snow potential

[Geordiesnow]

One thing for sure, with chilly air and low thicknesses, could be some sharp frosts around especially where skies stay clear. 

I'm also glad the uppers are a tad where they were e.g back more near - 4 in general, nothing exceptional but with very low thicknesses it does give that bit more room for error. 

[northwestsnow]

UKMO 144...

[Skullzrulerz]

13 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

UKMO and GFS T96:

Prefer the UKMO as it has the centre of the low that bit further east.  

Good start to the 12s.  

Is the GFS 12z Better then the 6z?

[Griff]

Gets colder a little bit quicker in this run..

[That ECM]

Going up this time? Um

Edited December 24, 2020 by That ECM

[Man With Beard]

UKMO T96 - I would have thought this is A1 positioning of the low given the synoptics

[Drifter]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

UKMO 144...

That would be fine, although I do prefer GFS at the same stage. 

[Mike Poole]

GFS excellent at T144, with cold air over most of the country especially the north:

[Matt H]

GFS 12z upgrades the uppers with -8C across southern England by this time next week.

[TSNWK]

Wow! Big difference to our north with heights forming from Greenland across to Svalbard 

looks colder on uppers too with -8 over south east

 

[That ECM]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

GFS 12z upgrades the uppers with -8C across southern England by this time next week.

Yeah it’s good but I’ll be honest I was concerned for a minute. Probably as it’s getting closer getting more nervy.

[Geordiesnow]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

GFS 12z upgrades the uppers with -8C across southern England by this time next week.

Yep a slight eastwards movement allowed the UK to tap into a pool of slightly colder air from the North. Suspect variables like that will continue as time goes on. Either way its the best run in terms of cold I seen so far in terms of upper air temperatures.