Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Eagle Eye]

The Perfect set up, a flimsy High broken through by a Canadian Low before the Siberian high Ridge stops movement of the Low meaning we have many Days of Snow. With a 2nd one ready to push through the Weak high and bring Polar Air and AN ARCTIC NORTHERNLY. 

The 2nd half should always be taken with a Pinch OF SALT. Certainly though an Arctic Northernly bringing Polar Air and flr the first time i'm happy that the SIBERIAN RIDGE IS HOLDING. 

 

[Methuselah]

Putting aside, for the moment, Beasts From The East (which have never been exactly common) it's charts like these that pique my interest... not at all severe, Upper-wise, but plenty cold enough for localised heavy snowfalls, at least:

    

Whilst the T850s are nothing to write home about, heavy and persistent precipitation could well tip the balance, in our favour... Just as they did on Christmas Eve 1968? Indeed, most of the snow I can recall from childhood was wet and sticky (and often occurred on days when max 2m temps were between 3 and 5C -- most of the dry powdery stuff was reserved for special occasions!

 

[cyclonic happiness]

1 hour ago, mountain shadow said:

I do wish folk would actually read what I write.

I have distinctly said that lucky areas will be lucky and get snow, but that is more likely the further North you are with altitude.

For the vast majority they are unlikely to see a decent snow fall in the next 10 days.

That is my view and I hope I'm wrong.

A decent snowfall here, is any snowfall. Last year we had zero snow. even to see it falling would be amazing

[Frosty.]

Omg, I think I just died and went to heaven!...seriously though, omg, the GEFS 6z!...what the..f..anyway, it’s stunning if you want cold (real cold)..not faux cold!...I’m officially excited..chart order probably messed up..I don’t care..it’s showing narnia innit!

[Eagle Eye]

1 minute ago, Jon Snow said:

Omg, I think I just died and went to heaven!...seriously though, omg, the GEFS 6z!...what the..f..anyway, it’s stunning if you want cold (real cold)..not faux cold!...I’m officially excited..chart order probably messed up..I don’t care..it’s showing narnia innit!

Meanwhile in Kent. 

[Biggin]

7 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Meanwhile in Kent. 

Yep was gonna say not many of them show snow in Kent

[78/79]

1 hour ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

People on the Moans and Ramp Thread ridiculing this thread without knowing what it's about. Time and time again we have said this is discussing the Model outlined not getting a fully Accurate prediction. Outlines have shown to be the best type of prediction more than 3 Days Out and Charts Such As Arctic Oscillation Will and Have Been used for purposes of getting an outline of the Winter and aren't going to be Exactly Correct. 

Within the next 2 Weeks it is predicted that in Eurasia it will carry on going up perhaps more than the Annual Average.

Of Course that is over a large area so we will have to Look at the Arctic Oscillation Charts, Anomoly can be a good show at how different it can Be. 

As you can see there are 2 differential anomoly's but you can spot outliers such as a COLDER Atlantic and Negative Arctic Oscillation Could be a 50/50 Chan e Of it happening most likely a 25% Chance which is PRETTY HIGH COMPARED TO THE ANNUAL AVERAGE. 

The Forecast after 2 Weeks is A Weakened Polar Vortex but of course that could be for a while. 

SEA ICE EXTENT towards EUROPE is more THAN THE NATIONAL AVERAGE. COULD BE A NEGATIVE AO with the SEA ICE EXTENT LOOKING LESS TO THE NORTH AND MORE IN EUROPE. 

IF WE ASSUME THE 25% Chance then this has a pretty high chance of happening Considering most ANOMOLY'S like this. 

SO remember there is 2 MONTHS of WINTER left perhaps even more still. 

Saw that myself, I don't tend to post in here, probably because I don't know enough about the subject, but that's not to say that I'm not interested . I've learned an awful lot just by reading through the posts on this thread, and, as a result, have a better basic knowledge of meteorology than a lot of people. Like a lot of things in life it's easy to slag something off, but not  so easy to make a meaningful contribution. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by 78/79

[southbank]

49 minutes ago, Vikos said:

It was only to point out, that our MetO is similar (pessemistic) to yours in their outlook, not about acutal weather in Germany. But anyway, won't post then anymore...

Have a good one and stay safe

Vikos your input is very much appreciated , I for one take heart for weather nuts all over Europe and share our common love for this hobby 

[Methuselah]

8 minutes ago, Biggin said:

Yep was gonna say not many of them show snow in Kent

And all but FIVE have no snow anywhere near the Triangle of Doom!  Bernie, the bolt?

[DanDorsetUK]

Always nice to see American meteorologists commenting about our weather. Scott Sabol telling the UK to buckle up.

 

[Decemberof2010]

So while it’s great having brilliant charts one after the other, spare a thought for us mere cherry pickers. We may as well swap allegiance and hunt out horror charts. 
So with that in mind I’ve been in the wonky veg section and here’s my Frankenstein chart just for Christmas. But we also have gifts 
So once again we have:

Gold

 

Frankenstein

And Murr

Edited December 24, 2020 by Decemberof2010

[kumquat]

ppl need to stop banging on about Kent and the SE. Plenty of snow chances over multiple years, often end up luckier than anywhere due to continental influence. Some of the best heat waves and storms in the UK. Try living in the west country  south of the M4.

[Eagle Eye]

Many People look for a 2010 Chart every Year and we haven't found one since then. 2010 WAS A ONE OFF we are more likely to get a Toppler. 

Snow has been on as many days for Average since 2000 as in the 1980s in London. Many of those have been Toppler since 2000 Yes but it's still Snow. 

From around 2019 we've felt that WINTER won't be the same and we're all writing off this Year's Charts. 

Look at last Year's though, their Charts didn't have anything to look forward to.

Whereas this Year we have a good Chance considering it's close of Widespread Snow as AN ARCTIC NORTHERNLY. After a Toppler. 

MANY people forget that we've only Just Begun Winter and that we are most likely having at least a Toppler. 

Merry Xmas. 

Xander. 

 

[Methuselah]

Come on, peeps -- this is getting ridiculous; waiting for the next model-run is like getting home from school, at 4:20, and having to wait 95 minutes for the 5:55 forecast on Radio 4... Or was it called the Light Programme back then?

[Mark wheeler]

3 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Come on, peeps -- this is getting ridiculous; waiting for the next model-run is like getting home from school, at 4:20, and having to wait 95 minutes for the 5:55 forecast on Radio 4... Or was it called the Light Programme back then?

Good afternoon and welcome to Weather call  

[Methuselah]

Just now, Mark wheeler said:

Good afternoon and welcome to Weather call  

If you have any information on the whereabouts of Mr Snowflake, last seen floating past The Nag's Head pub on Friday the 13th, don't forget to call Whitehall 1212.

[Tim Bland]

Hoping to see a reduction in the milder members at the end of the next GEFS suite , about 40% went above average from 5th Jan  on the 06z suite. Not getting worried yet...just don’t want it to become a trend or increase. 

[mulzy]

Just now, Tim Bland said:

Hoping to see a reduction in the milder members at the end of the next GEFS suite , about 40% went above average from 5th Jan  on the 06z suite. Not getting worried yet...just don’t want it to become a trend or increase. 

To be expected with the significant risk with a west based negative NAO as shown in all the ensemble suites.  And even if we do go milder for a bit, the chances of cold returning shortly after are very good.

[Daniel*]

39 minutes ago, kumquat said:

ppl need to stop banging on about Kent and the SE. Plenty of snow chances over multiple years, often end up luckier than anywhere due to continental influence. Some of the best heat waves and storms in the UK. Try living in the west country  south of the M4.

Far from the truth though London & SE has done terribly for years now with snow, even in 2018 the significant snowfalls didn’t extend far inland. Recent years SW England has done best in south which is unacceptable  

As for storms what are they? They’ve disappeared seems to be midlands north affair nowadays while we always see worst of heat this summer, a clear example I got nothing out of August with 4 tropical nights.

We’re severely overdue a SE snow event, the last I remember in January 2013... I notice models are putting more emphasis on the SE including ECM/UKV/ICON... for next Monday I’d take a dusting at this stage the bar is extremely low!

[Battleground Snow]

Icon at 180 is heading in the right direction for coldies I think, decent ridge heading up to griceland

 

[booferking]

Great start to 12z icon. 

Edited December 24, 2020 by Blessed Weather
B word removed

[sheikhy]

Just now, Battleground Snow said:

Icon at 180 is heading in the right direction for coldies I think, decent ridge heading up to griceland

 

Its not decent!!!its frikkin stunning!!!❄

[sheikhy]

Cmon lets have a great set of 12zs tonight and then just chyll for christmas/new year and look forward to the snow and cold to come!!!cmon 12zs give us that peace of mind❤

[sheikhy]

Oh by the way hardly any snow on the icon now for monday!!!!

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Oh by the way hardly any snow on the icon now for monday!!!!

Good thing there's no chance it could possibly change at all in the meantime!