Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[terrier]

Goodness me some right moaning going on in here this morning. Yes the gfs 00z overnight wasn’t great. But the gfs06z is looking better early doors. We have at least seven days of cold frosty and snow for some what’s not to like. And we also have a ssw heading into the new year. Think we are in for a few interesting few weeks ahead of us. Yes it’s no dec 2010. But definitely nothing mild and Atlantic driven that’s for sure. 

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, swfc said:

You mean 6z scott

No im being tongue in cheek about this mornings run

[Howie]

I really do think that the GFS op runs are just utterly confused

[Battleground Snow]

2 minutes ago, terrier said:

Goodness me some right moaning going on in here this morning. Yes the gfs 00z overnight wasn’t great. But the gfs06z is looking better early doors. We have at least seven days of cold frosty and snow for some what’s not to like. And we also have a ssw heading into the new year. Think we are in for a few interesting few weeks ahead of us. Yes it’s no dec 2010. But definitely nothing mild and Atlantic driven that’s for sure. 

This is almost a ramp!

[sheikhy]

I dont even know why we stressing over the gfs!!its clearly an upgrade on the 00z and going back to what the ukmo and ecm is showing!!!watch for more improvements on the 12z!!!gfs parallel even better!!

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

I really do think that the GFS op runs are just utterly confused

Less manual input due to Christmas and bank Holidays? (reminder tomorrow is also a Bank Holiday, if so) 

[Drifter]

23 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Another change on the GFS but a good one .

Sharper upstream troughing and cold entrenched over the UK .  Can’t see how you can lose the cold from that chart at day 7 . 

 

In fact, good old GFS managed it within 3 days!

[swfc]

Amazingly the 6z gfs brings an easterly from svalbard well into the USA

[Youcan'tbecirrus]

54 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

One thing I did notice about the 0Z, was that it 'tries' to get -30C Uppers into Siberia... Just where we want them be, during runup to an SSW?

Now that would get me interested. I don't know if the '87 event (akin to lake effect snow ?) came from such a set up and whether it was the result of an SSW but there has been nothing like it since in my area (21" snow). 91 or 92 was good and I was too young to remember 62/63 but I know that was off the scale. When the models are showing something like -20 in Moscow -12 Berlin and -6 in Amsterdam that's when I will get really interested but this upcoming spell does look pleasingly cold with enough precipitation around to satisfy many at some point.  

[Eagle Eye]

Canadian Low ready to punch through. 

[mountain shadow]

58 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Considering what was showing last night I expect many will be disappointed if this was the outcome. Even us desperate snow loving brits can’t call 2cm a pasting surely

Been warning of this all week and was lambasted for it.

 

[Matt H]

GFS, GFS(p) and ECMWF at t216. Spot the odd one out...

My previous comments praising the GFS for being consistent recently appear to have aged like milk.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[booferking]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

Been warning of this all week and was lambasted for it.

 

Looks great if your a mountain goat living in scottish highlands

[Anthony Burden]

GFS 06z not interested in any high pressure to our west /northwest winding up Atlantic 

bringing low pressure systems on a southeasterly direction.Once again who is right

possibly a portion of each,or one lost the yellow brick road. Interesting 

[swfc]

Well if that 6z gfs in fi lands il ride a penny farthing naked threw Sheffield singing"show me the way to amarillo "That said improvement in the reliable timeframe

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Frosty Winter said:

GFS, GFS(p) and ECMWF at t216. Spot the odd one out...

My comments praising about the GFS about being consistent recently appear to have aged like milk.

Beginning to appreciate why those who know what they are talking about suggest that the clusters and anomaly charts are used

[AFC Snow]

6z mean looks like an upgrade to me!

 

[bluearmy]

3 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Been warning of this all week and was lambasted for it.

Not sure how may have been expecting ‘proper’ snowfalls ..... I think there will be a fair few who will be content but many more who won’t - it’s never looked like it would be anything different to that .... I think that there are ways of saying something which is where you’ve come unstuck over the past week......

[sheikhy]

Wow anyone seen the mean and control!!big upgrade at 168 hours!!

[Howie]

1 minute ago, sheikhy said:

Wow anyone seen the mean and control!!big upgrade at 168 hours!!

Yup, the op runs seem to be highly confused after the medium term

[SLEETY]

only good thing about this run is that much colder uppers are invading Europe,good news for when the SSW happens..

[bluearmy]

2 minutes ago, Howie said:

Yup, the op runs seem to be highly confused after the medium term

If you didn’t have gfs to look at then most of the op confusion sits beyond day 8 which is how it’s supposed to be ......

[I remember Atlantic 252]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Wow anyone seen the mean and control!!big upgrade at 168 hours!!

FI looks unusual, 3 low centres in -8 850's

Edited December 27, 2020 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Matt H]

4 minutes ago, AFC Snow said:

6z mean looks like an upgrade to me!

 

The 00z mean for reference around the same time. Good progress, hope the trend continues.

[TSNWK]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

FI looks unusual, 3 low centres in -8 850's

And what’s wrong that...;) I jest..but it has to be option if created