Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Optimus Prime said:

Remember, these models predict relatively very short ranges. The timing of this cold spell isn't exactly ideal with regards to data re:time of year (+pandemic) +an unusual shift in global weather patterns. The global temp anomaly is dropping,  fact. Look at what's going on in Siberia and asia.

 

Also, check out proper long range forecasting data presented in the ssw thread. 

 

It hasn't been this good since, eh well the last la nina/low sunspot combo. Can't believe that's over 10 years ago already. Time flies.

Excellent post.

This is what a bigger picture objective post should be.

There will always be ups and downs with the ops but the big picture is one of a huge meridonial jet that can not at all support that GFS run. 

Its doing its nornal and sending too much energy over the top.

Its new younger brother the P has greater verticle layers and as such can pick up on them (invisible lines) 

This goes on to produce a very cold possibly snowy outlook

[Polar Maritime]

6 minutes ago, Snow White said:

So if I see a chart and I have a different interpretation of that chart I am not allowed to state that as I will spoil someone’s excitement ?

Are we not allowed to have contrasting views ?

Absolutely that's what this thread is all about.

But questioning why other folk are or aren't exited is rather tedious. Let's move on please thankyou, no more on this matter in here.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Polar Maritime

[ScottSnow]

9 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Remember, these models predict relatively very short ranges. The timing of this cold spell isn't exactly ideal with regards to data re:time of year (+pandemic) +an unusual shift in global weather patterns. The global temp anomaly is dropping,  fact. Look at what's going on in Siberia and asia.

 

Also, check out proper long range forecasting data presented in the ssw thread. 

 

It hasn't been this good since, eh well the last la nina/low sunspot combo. Can't believe that's over 10 years ago already. Time flies.

Yeah and I have been model watching a long time, I have even been a member of this forum longer than you so I understand the nuances of the models.

Hopefully we see a movement of the cold over East Siberia to Scandy/Europe so if we get similar Synoptics later in the winter they will deliver what WE ALL want to see.

[Optimus Prime]

6 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Excellent post.

This is what a bigger picture objective post should be.

There will always be ups and downs with the ops but the big picture is one of a huge meridonial jet that can not at all support that GFS run. 

Its doing its nornal and sending too much energy over the top.

Its new younger brother the P has greater verticle layers and as such can pick up on them (invisible lines) 

This goes on to produce a very cold possibly snowy outlook

Would advise a quick glance over 

GFS 2m temperature anomaly

WWW.KARSTENHAUSTEIN.COM

---

Temperature anomaly maps

Crude perhaps but notice the arctic is going from negative to positive. A response to...?

We saw that in 2013. And we have the Siberian cold to go with it.

The science in us certainly makes the brain wonder what is going on with our weather right now.

 

 

[Mucka]

Cherrypicked purely for its synoptic beauty - to get the taste of GFS Op out of my mouth

[Polar Maritime]

Ok, unless it's model discussion post are going to start going missing. Please don't respond to posts that are off topic, hit the report button. Thankyou all

 

[Daniel*]

No one has forecast a significant cold spell so I’m not sure where some are getting that from, unusually lack of deep cold in output despite synoptics. I’d say the GFS 00z is the least feasible run I’ve seen so far where’s the blocking gone and the mobility from Atlantic.... even in FI? For it to be right it would be a massive bust from EPS and I can’t see it being that wrong in medium range. While I suppose it’s possible pressure may rise but still be cold I can see that more. 

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Snow White said:

I apologise if that’s you felt it was not my intention.

Hopefully we do see a transfer of cold from East Siberia so that we can see prolonged cold and snow by the end of the winter.

Apology accepted!

I do agree we havnt had them mega temperatures to tap into and i do get where you are coming from completely but i only disagree because you dont need that cold for snow if you get this set up for best part of 2 weeks.

What you get is your own cold pool with dropping dew points and it becoming dense and entrenched. It means over time it will he all snow without a top up and i anticipate due to rising AAM and the SSW that we will get this anyway in 3 weeks time.

Im more of a long range forecaster and ive never seen so many jigsaw pieces lining up like they are. I wouldnt call a month mimimum of below average temperatures without seeing this in tropical, extra tropical and stratopsheric evidence.

Its not ramping.

Im not the only long ranger saying this.

Matt Hugo sees this, Chio sees this Catacol sees this.

It is honestly the most excited ive been about a winter month for 21 years of model watching

[ScottSnow]

We need to see see the entrenched cold over East Siberia / Asia move west. It has started to move at 384hrs on the GFS. Obviously only looking for patterns at this range.

Maybe we need to see a week or two of milder weather to help shake the patterns up a bit as it does have the feeling of being stuck at the moment.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Snow White

[Daniel*]

Caution with UKMO at day 6 but it’s not as uninspired as GFS. 

 

GFSp pretty similar to UKMO wouldn’t you say? 

[Scott Ingham]

22 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Would advise a quick glance over 

GFS 2m temperature anomaly

WWW.KARSTENHAUSTEIN.COM

---

Temperature anomaly maps

Crude perhaps but notice the arctic is going from negative to positive. A response to...?

We saw that in 2013. And we have the Siberian cold to go with it.

The science in us certainly makes the brain wonder what is going on with our weather right now.

 

 

This site is excellent! Thanks mate! 

[ScottSnow]

The colder air is already digging into Scotland. Looking at the models I would not be surprised for Northern England to wake up to some temporary snow cover tomorrow from the feature moving down the country overnight. Obviously any elevation will help.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Snow White

[Scott Ingham]

15 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Caution with UKMO at day 6 but it’s not as uninspired as GFS. 

 

GFSp pretty similar to UKMO wouldn’t you say? 

I REALLY rate the GFSP.

Its a big improvement in my eyes.

Looks a ton better in the strat too in my opinion but well see on that very soon

[Weather-history]

I don't want to rub salt in but latest UKV seems to weaken the occlusion 

 

7am chart compared to yesterday's 18z 

 

Euro 4 is better for some parts 

Feels as though the trend is to weaken the feature 

[mountain shadow]

14 minutes ago, Snow White said:

The colder air is already digging into Scotland. Looking at the models I would not be surprised for Northern England to wake up to some temporary snow cover tomorrow from the feature moving down the country overnight. Obviously any elevation will help.

It's all about altitude though and how far North you are.

The models have been showing snow for me at over 400 feet the last couple of days, but it's just rain.

Some will get lucky but most wont.

 

[Polar Maritime]

Let's keep on topic please. Use the pm system for other chat.

[Battleground Snow]

ECM at 144 v GFS, look at the energy difference to our North West

 

 

 

[ScottSnow]

9 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It's all about altitude though and how far North you are.

The models have been showing snow for me at over 400 feet the last couple of days, but it's just rain.

Some will get lucky but most wont.

 

I agree it’s not fantastic output at the moment but I think you should see some snow over next few days. In Scotland you have a better chance than most looking at the models.

There does seem to some hefty snow showers moving into the west coast of Scotland.

I am hoping to wake up to a covering from the feature moving south over northern England overnight. 

[Battleground Snow]

ECM at 168, still decent, a bit of a wobble this morning, but can be recovered at this time range. From watching over the years there does seems to be a wobble before a recovery when cold spells are involved.

 

[Jemma Croton]

Aren’t we all used to this by now though? Models seem to flip back and forth for a few days when colder weather is upon us. I’ve lost count of the amount of times we’ve had a snow event show, then we have what seems to be a day of downgrades with everyone upset, only to them flip back overnight etc. Not every time but this is part of the process I expect now (I’m autistic, I need to be able to anticipate things) and even happens after a massive split SSW. Haven’t most of us been around at this now long enough to know there are always bumps in the road? Of course, we all know the pain of things truly downgrading and not coming to pass at all. We’ve all been stung by that one. So emotions run super high. 
 

To me, I still see a most exciting period of weather coming up. It just feels different somehow but that’s now scientific.

I’ll finish with this. I have learned a lot here. First as a long time lurker and then a member. I learn as much from the opposing views as I do from the popular view. People often comment, worried it will put off new members when people argue etc but actually for me it was always helpful... and a good reminder of how fragile and delicate this hobby is.

 

[ScottSnow]

5 minutes ago, Optimus Prime said:

Last ssw was an utter failure (early 2019 i think) Experts tell us, and depending on the type, intensity, downwelling, feedbacks etcetera it gives us 75% chance of impact.

So the odds are stacked in our favour i would have thought?

Hopefully we see the effects of it. I don’t pretend to know how it works exactly but yes I do know we have had them in the past and they have not had the desired impact. That’s why I say there are no guarantees.

IMO the 0z maybe a better route to sustained cold in the long term although we may have to put up with a week or two of milder temps especially if you live in the south.

I notice by the end of the run on the 0z we start to see the movement westwards of the cold air over Siberia. 

[Ali1977]

FI is way before 192 , that’s some difference between the ECM and GFS.

[Scott Ingham]

7 minutes ago, Snow White said:

I agree it’s not fantastic output at the moment but I think you should see some snow over next few days. In Scotland you have a better chance than most looking at the models.

There does seem to some hefty snow showers moving into the west coast of Scotland.

I am hoping to wake up to a covering from the feature moving south over northern England overnight. 

Youll struggle tonight but tomorrow night into tuesday you have a chance

Edited December 27, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

FI is way before 192 , that’s some difference between the ECM and GFS.

That will be freezing that at 192 brrrr!

The GFS has lost the plot this morning.

The UKMO backs the ECM

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Jemma Croton said:

Aren’t we all used to this by now though? Models seem to flip back and forth for a few days when colder weather is upon us. I’ve lost count of the amount of times we’ve had a snow event show, then we have what seems to be a day of downgrades with everyone upset, only to them flip back overnight etc. Not every time but this is part of the process I expect now (I’m autistic, I need to be able to anticipate things) and even happens after a massive split SSW. Haven’t most of us been around at this now long enough to know there are always bumps in the road? Of course, we all know the pain of things truly downgrading and not coming to pass at all. We’ve all been stung by that one. So emotions run super high. 
 

To me, I still see a most exciting period of weather coming up. It just feels different somehow but that’s now scientific.

I’ll finish with this. I have learned a lot here. First as a long time lurker and then a member. I learn as much from the opposing views as I do from the popular view. People often comment, worried it will put off new members when people argue etc but actually for me it was always helpful... and a good reminder of how fragile and delicate this hobby is.

 

Be sure to keep commenting!