Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[ScottSnow]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

If youve beem watching it simce i was in nappies youd have been watching it since i was nearly 40 years old and ive got a degree in meteorology so i do have a fait bit of experience myself.

No one said 2010 all that was said was that we would have below average temperatures for a period of time rivalling 2010.

This has now been backed by the met office themseves who have said we would have below average temperatures until february at the very earliest.

If that is your opinion fair play but its not mine and we will just have to see what transpires.

But i strongly disagree with that gfs run.

It happens all the time we get one had run and people have a panic attack

Let’s get this right. You may have a degree in meteorology and all credit to you if you have but you don’t have the experience of watching these things unfold winter after winter.

I specifically remember you saying a week ago that this cold spell will be in the UKs all time top ten. I stated it would not even be in the top 5 from the last 15 years.

This is not a dig and I am not here to ruffle feathers there is nobody who loves cold and snow more than me but I have stated the models never showed the depth of cold to warrant all the excitement.

Hopefully they soon change but IMO until we see a movement of cold air to our side of the hemisphere we are going to have our backs against the wall. So the Russian High needs to move.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

In 2016, the NAM charts didn't show coupling until it had actually happened. Remember the Metoffice saying about the weak TPV when it was clear that coupling had already happened. Once we lose the amplified pattern it happens really quite quickly.

Doesn't necessarily spell the end of the potential if there is a coupling...given the potential SSW

I respect your kmowledge and your opinion but i cant agree at this minute.

Only time will tell and ill hold my hands up if im wrong 

[Mucka]

2 minutes ago, West is Best said:

I've stayed away from posting on this thread because I haven't wanted to annoy people and it becomes a bit of a religion on here sometimes. However, this has never looked in the models more than a relatively slack 6 day cold snap. There will be some wintry precipitation even to low levels. But there's still nothing sustained showing up. There has been little or no robust upstream blocking and a notable absence of deep cold pooling over Europe: something I note as a feature of climate change. 

UKMO goes for a toppling high as did yesterday's ECM and now the GFS shows a return to zonality. So that's all big three models going against any sustained cold spell.

It's there in front of us in the model outputs whether we like it or not.

 

People do get emotive here but not sure how you can say that when the ensembles and Ops have shown minimum 8-10 day cold spell until this run.

Edited December 27, 2020 by Mucka

[Cheshire Freeze]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

I respect your kmowledge and your opinion but i cant agree at this minute.

Only time will tell and ill hold my hands up if im wrong 

That's fair enough mate.

Believe me...I hope my concerns are way off the mark too!

[ScottSnow]

1 minute ago, West is Best said:

I've stayed away from posting on this thread because I haven't wanted to annoy people and it becomes a bit of a religion on here sometimes. However, this has never looked in the models more than a relatively slack 6 day cold snap. There will be some wintry precipitation even to low levels. But there's still nothing sustained showing up. There has been little or no robust upstream blocking and a notable absence of deep cold pooling over Europe: something I note as a feature of climate change. 

UKMO goes for a toppling high as did yesterday's ECM and now the GFS shows a return to zonality. So that's all big three models going against any sustained cold spell.

It's there in front of us in the model outputs whether we like it or not.

Yeah I know you have been on here a while too so maybe we are too old in the head for this but I agree there was nothing showing in the models to warrant so much excitement.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Snow White said:

Let’s get this right. You may have a degree in meteorology and all credit to you if you have but you don’t have the experience of watching these things unfold winter after winter.

I specifically remember you saying a week ago that this cold spell will be in the UKs all time top ten. I stated it would not even be in the top 5 from the last 15 years.

This is not a dig and I am not here to ruffle feathers there is nobody who loves cold and snow more than me but I have stated the models never showed the depth of cold to warrant all the excitement.

Hopefully they soon change but IMO until we see a movement of cold air to our side of the hemisphere we are going to have our backs against the wall. So the Russian High needs to move.

The weather is only going to get colder.

I didnt base that forecase on this weeks weather.

We have an eamt on the 31st of December which will further amplify the pattern for the latter end of january.

Those colder uppers will come middle to end of january and well stay cold enough until then for snow chances and very cold nights.

If it unravels like that it will be a top 10 winter.

I stand by it ive put my neck on the line ajd if im wrong then i am ill admit it.

But i still stand by this claim and stand by it very strongly

[ScottSnow]

1 minute ago, Mucka said:

 

People do get emotive here but not sure how you can say that when the ensembles and Ops have shown minimum 8-10 day cold spell until this run.

It wasn’t a cold spell it was more of a ‘cool’ spell ! Which they still show but the real cold is too far away which has left us feeding off scraps.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

That's fair enough mate.

Believe me...I hope my concerns are way off the mark too!

Your concerns are right in terms of the cause - zonal energy, but maybe not so much the effect imho. The continued signal for wave breaking will help entrain any zonal energy into a meridional flow. Siding with the majoriry option this is more credible imho.

[Scott Ingham]

5 minutes ago, West is Best said:

I've stayed away from posting on this thread because I haven't wanted to annoy people and it becomes a bit of a religion on here sometimes. However, this has never looked in the models more than a relatively slack 6 day cold snap. There will be some wintry precipitation even to low levels. But there's still nothing sustained showing up. There has been little or no robust upstream blocking and a notable absence of deep cold pooling over Europe: something I note as a feature of climate change. 

UKMO goes for a toppling high as did yesterday's ECM and now the GFS shows a return to zonality. So that's all big three models going against any sustained cold spell.

It's there in front of us in the model outputs whether we like it or not.

This will sustain at these levels of 850s for the next 10 days minimum and only get colder as we go through the month.

The background signals for this are blinding.

Again if im wrong ill say im wrong and try to explain why.

 Nothing in this mornings runs leads me to believe any different other than one very dodgy GFS run

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Snow White said:

It wasn’t a cold spell it was more of a ‘cool’ spell ! Which they still show but the real cold is too far away which has left us feeding off scraps.

Cool spell? We aren't in mid Summer lol

[Optimus Prime]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The weather is only going to get colder.

I didnt base that forecase on this weeks weather.

We have an eamt on the 31st of December which will further amplify the pattern for the latter end of january.

Those colder uppers will come middle to end of january and well stay cold enough until then for snow chances and very cold nights.

If it unravels like that it will be a top 10 winter.

I stand by it ive put my neck on the line ajd if im wrong then i am ill admit it.

But i still stand by this claim and stand by it very strongly

There are plenty of others that share your excitement. You're not alone

[ScottSnow]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

The weather is only going to get colder.

I didnt base that forecase on this weeks weather.

We have an eamt on the 31st of December which will further amplify the pattern for the latter end of january.

Those colder uppers will come middle to end of january and well stay cold enough until then for snow chances and very cold nights.

If it unravels like that it will be a top 10 winter.

I stand by it ive put my neck on the line ajd if im wrong then i am ill admit it.

But i still stand by this claim and stand by it very strongly

Well I for one hope you are right but at the moment I don’t see any evidence for that. Plenty of time for things to change but this week from watching the models were only ever going to be a damp squib IMO.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Snow White said:

It wasn’t a cold spell it was more of a ‘cool’ spell ! Which they still show but the real cold is too far away which has left us feeding off scraps.

Your not seeing what happens after that.

Amplification will pick up yet again from the 5th of January followed by a SSW that looks to only improve om this outlook.

How about wait to see what happens before critisizing someones opinion?

[Scott Ingham]

2 hours ago, Optimus Prime said:

There are plenty of others that share your excitement. You're not alone

Thanks mate.

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Blessed Weather
Unnecessary comment removed

[Mucka]

4 minutes ago, Snow White said:

It wasn’t a cold spell it was more of a ‘cool’ spell ! Which they still show but the real cold is too far away which has left us feeding off scraps.

Hmm I think average daytime temp for England is about 7C and we were forecast to have around 3C (4C below average).

Do we need ice days in England before we can call it a cold spell?

I 'm sure some people believe we are neighbours to Santa. 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Mucka

[Polar Maritime]

1 minute ago, Snow White said:

Yeah I know you have been on here a while too so maybe we are too old in the head for this but I agree there was nothing showing in the models to warrant so much excitement.

Some people get excited, some don't thats fine but I'm sure forum members don't need to be told otherwise. It's a judgment that can only be made by the individual. Let's please move on from this and look at the bigger picture.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Snow White said:

Well I for one hope you are right but at the moment I don’t see any evidence for that. Plenty of time for things to change but this week from watching the models were only ever going to be a damp squib IMO.

Theres still time this week for snow for all.

Monday tuesday looks good for many and i see signs of a possible event on the 31st.

You may be right though i agree its marginal but i think we are just about on the right side

[ScottSnow]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Cool spell? We aren't in mid Summer lol

None of the models have shown real cold. I stand by that comment and note  that there will be no Ice days that in England this week. It’s a week of below average temps that will be marginal at best for snow. Until we get entrenched cold in Europe/Scandy it does not matter what Synoptics we get we will be feeding off scraps.

[Mucka]

Here are the short ensembles from GFS for central England

 

Solid 7 days well below average temps with chances of snow.

Maybe some people set their expectations too high and others too low but it is what it is.

 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Mucka

[Scott Ingham]

11 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

That's fair enough mate.

Believe me...I hope my concerns are way off the mark too!

I hope as well haha! 

I do respect your opinions though you get an awful lot right.

If i agreed with you id say i dont ramp if i dont think it will be cold im like mushyman (who is ramping as well and its not like him)

[Ali1977]

Day 9 GEFS still looking blocked, and control looks like slider gate!!

A few ‘cherry picked” ENS below, and I think we can safely say that FI is around day 5/6 

[Rayth]

2 minutes ago, Snow White said:

None of the models have shown real cold. I stand by that comment and note  that there will be no Ice days that in England this week. It’s a week of below average temps that will be marginal at best for snow. Until we get entrenched cold in Europe/Scandy it does not matter what Synoptics we get we will be feeding off scraps.

How can a week of below average temperature be described as ‘cool’ in winter ? That’s a contradiction in itself ? 
 

Curious anomaly on this forum , people with snow in the username seem to want anything but 

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Day 9 GEFS still looking blocked, and control looks like slider gate!!

A few ‘cherry picked” ENS below, and I think we can safely say that FI is around day 5/6 

Slidergate i believe with a wedge is what follows this huge high pressure.

The jet stream profile to me can only result in one thing and is energy going under heights near iceland 

[Optimus Prime]

5 minutes ago, Snow White said:

Well I for one hope you are right but at the moment I don’t see any evidence for that. Plenty of time for things to change but this week from watching the models were only ever going to be a damp squib IMO.

Remember, these models predict relatively very short ranges. The timing of this cold spell isn't exactly ideal with regards to data re:time of year (+pandemic) +an unusual shift in global weather patterns. The global temp anomaly is dropping,  fact. Look at what's going on in Siberia and asia.

 

Also, check out proper long range forecasting data presented in the ssw thread. 

 

It hasn't been this good since, eh well the last la nina/low sunspot combo. Can't believe that's over 10 years ago already. Time flies.

[ScottSnow]

4 minutes ago, Polar Maritime said:

Some people get excited, some don't thats fine but I'm sure forum members don't need to be told otherwise. It's a judgment that can only be made by the individual. Let's please move on from this and look at the bigger picture.

So if I see a chart and I have a different interpretation of that chart I am not allowed to state that as I will spoil someone’s excitement ?

Are we not allowed to have contrasting views ?

Anyway I cannot see any sustained cold and snow until the Russian High moves and we see a displacement westwards of the cold over Eastern Siberia. 
Until we have a decent cold pool we are going to have our backs against the wall.