Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[kumquat]

4 minutes ago, Mark Neal. said:

The aforementioned Euro4. 18z.  Shows the low pressure in Ireland and then NW, coming through Wales and does come through parts of central england and southern, not as organised band as ICON but there is still some snow showing and system does pivot through course of Monday.

 

 

 

Always up for a snowy pivot. Who knows what will happen come the day? Definitely interesting to watch.

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Scott Ingham said:

Too fat west that for me

Yeah agree. It's the evolution I'm more interested in tho. Any change in track will just move those respective snow accumulation zones around.

Anywhere within the C.E.T. zone candidate for a pivot imo favouring central mids.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Griff said:

Youth speak? 

Hahaha dislexia speak and too maby beers

[Man With Beard]

18 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Latest Arpege for Monday shifts the focus south East a bit ...

This is due to a second front beefing up later on Monday, not the original low for Monday morning which goes back in the channel.

Hard to keep up with this!

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah agree. It's the evolution I'm more interested in tho. Any change in track will just move those respective snow accumulation zones around.

Anywhere within the C.E.T. zone candidate for a pivot imo favouring central mids.

I agree on the central midlands pivot. The midlands have a bigger error margin as well for sure!

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

This is due to a second front beefing up later on Monday, not the original low for Monday morning which goes back in the channel.

Hard to keep up with this!

Its changing every run om every model. Id hate to have to put warnings out over in Exeter. It has all the hallmarks of flash weather warning updates

[Mapantz]

I'm not sure if the 18Z was posted or not? But here's a few frames anyway..

 

 

 

Make sure you're not still waiting to look at high-res models on Monday morning, it'll be gone through and you'll miss all the fun! 

[Mark Neal.]

1 minute ago, Man With Beard said:

This is due to a second front beefing up later on Monday, not the original low for Monday morning which goes back in the channel.

Hard to keep up with this!

Yes your correct! The totals especially centrally and southern weren't much its when the wrap around or pivot comes back through Monday that gives many areas an extra few cm's. The lucky ones from this could see snow for much of the day and get more when the pivots come back around, its an interesting watch!

[Matt H]

6 minutes ago, Griff said:

Youth speak? 

Loving all the positivity this evening

As a 21 year old at uni I can tell you that ‘youth speak’ is far more obscure than that these days Griff. Some of the stuff people have said to me in clubs before (when they were open) makes about as much sense as a NAVGEM run.

Edited December 26, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Mapantz said:

I'm not sure if the 18Z was posted or not? But here's a few frames anyway..

 

 

 

Make sure you're not still waiting to look at high-res models on Monday morning, it'll be gone through and you'll miss all the fun! 

Very thin band by that. So will be a nice surprise starter for some but not all!

[kumquat]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its changing every run om every model. Id hate to have to put warnings out over in Exeter. It has all the hallmarks of flash weather warning updates

Could be a Telegraph Hill situation. Rain for most of us but any vehicles going over the tops at the wrong moment might be in a bit of silly bother.

[Weathizard]

3 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm not sure if the 18Z was posted or not? But here's a few frames anyway..

 

 

 

Make sure you're not still waiting to look at high-res models on Monday morning, it'll be gone through and you'll miss all the fun! 

A near perfect example of the M4 snow shield, absolutely textbook  

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

I agree on the central midlands pivot. The midlands have a bigger error margin as well for sure!

Yeah I think this will be quite wintry in the mids away from M4 corridor, accumulation margins will be related to snow longevity, certainly not an evap cooling event in these areas at least overnight or early / late...  Ultimately the higher accumulation area will get tighter in hi res until 18Z tomorrow and then see what radar's up to.

Also, I think the models *might* be failing to model the full extent of cyclonic style precip activity on Monday. This could well lead to a local build up of ppn through the day in the Midlands or even further south.

[Mapantz]

2 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

A near perfect example of the M4 snow shield, absolutely textbook  

Not really.. dewpoints and temperatures are lower on the Eastern flank of that feature.

[Mark Neal.]

18Z Harmonie keeps things more western and southern as it comes down from NW, although there is streams of showers/from the E/NE as behind the front. Here is the frames from 3am Monday morning through to 6pm Monday evening. 

 

 

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I'm not sure if the 18Z was posted or not? But here's a few frames anyway..

 

 

 

Make sure you're not still waiting to look at high-res models on Monday morning, it'll be gone through and you'll miss all the fun! 

This evolution is totally reasonable, I suspect the snow accumulation is undercooked.

[Scott Ingham]

2 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah I think this will be quite wintry in the mids away from M4 corridor, accumulation margins will be related to snow longevity, certainly not an evap cooling event in these areas at least overnight or early / late...  Ultimately the higher accumulation area will get tighter in hi res until 18Z tomorrow and then see what radar's up to.

Also, I think the models *might* be failing to model the full extent of cyclonic style precip activity on Monday. This could well lead to a local build up of ppn through the day in the Midlands or even further south.

Very interesting comment about the cyclonic element of the precipitation id not thought avout that! 

Looking forward to the mornings update!

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Mark Neal. said:

18Z Harmonie keeps things more western and southern as it comes down from NW, although there is streams of showers/from the E/NE as behind the front. Here is the frames from 3am Monday morning through to 6pm Monday evening. 

 

 

Dragging on old data maybe. Certainly not the favoured outcome atm can't disregard completely tho..

[kumquat]

Let's face it - it's gonna be cold rain for most of us. Some lucky place Midlands will get a dumping followed by a thaw/flooding. Will be interesting to see going forwards into Jan how the meso pattern develops.

[Zak M]

9 minutes ago, Frosty Winter said:

As a 21 year old at uni I can tell you that ‘youth speak’ is far more obscure than that these days Griff. Some of the stuff people have said to me in clubs before (when they were open) makes about as much sense as a NAVGEM run.

"Oi bruv that UKV run looks snowy innit"

Edited December 26, 2020 by Zak M

[Yorlum11]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Yeah I think this will be quite wintry in the mids away from M4 corridor, accumulation margins will be related to snow longevity, certainly not an evap cooling event in these areas at least overnight or early / late...  Ultimately the higher accumulation area will get tighter in hi res until 18Z tomorrow and then see what radar's up to.

Also, I think the models *might* be failing to model the full extent of cyclonic style precip activity on Monday. This could well lead to a local build up of ppn through the day in the Midlands or even further south.

@Kasim Awan i admire your level headed analysis and predictions. I'm in the west of Ireland so no imby stuff. Keep up the postings. Bring on the cold.

[kumquat]

2 minutes ago, Mark Neal. said:

18Z Harmonie keeps things more western and southern as it comes down from NW, although there is streams of showers/from the E/NE as behind the front. Here is the frames from 3am Monday morning through to 6pm Monday evening. 

 

 

Wow that is good for the (north) South West. fingers crossed.

[danthetan]

2 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Let's face it - it's gonna be cold rain for most of us. Some lucky place Midlands will get a dumping followed by a thaw/flooding. Will be interesting to see going forwards into Jan how the meso pattern develops.

I think so, if you live wales or SW England at elevation looking really good for snow . SW midlands good chance at low level. 

[Matt H]

1 minute ago, Zak M said:

"Oi bruv that UKV run looks snowy innit"

. Beyond stressful when you’re on a night out but a crucial GFS 18z is rolling out... 

[DavidS]

41 minutes ago, Due South said:

Nice Saturday summary video on Weatherbell especially last part when Joe discusses UK.

Joe is not to be ignored. He mentioned in one of his vids at the end of November, that the models would start to show pressure rises over Greenland during December and he was correct.

In the short term, snow chances for some in the next couple of days, but as usual, detail will be difficult to pin down right up to T0. In the medium to longer term this is the best opportunity we have had for an extended spell of cold weather in a very long time.

This model watching is new a thing for me, just a couple of years, so feel I am getting lucky with current output. 
 

Here’s to being lucky