Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Allseasons-Si]

The De-built ECM ens have flipped quite dramatically over the last day or so  

temps/dew points,and wind direction showing a trend to E/NE flow(black circle).

15daagse Midden - Weerpluim ECMWF-EXPERT | Weerplaza.nl

WWW.WEERPLAZA.NL

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Bekijk de 15 daagse trend Europees weermodel voor regio Midden. Weergave van de ECMWF-EXPERT pluim met de lange termijn verwachting van Weerplaza.

 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Allseasons-si
Added link

[Kasim Awan]

Coldest first week of January since 2010 I think. 

[Due South]

Nice Saturday summary video on Weatherbell especially last part when Joe discusses UK.

[danthetan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its absolutely fascinating this year Dan! 

Its the fact its happening in early Jan.

Well get away with marginality a lot easier than say late february and March before we hopefully see a favourable ssw induce some even colder upper air.

Very interesting to monitor daily temperatures the longer it stays as it is

Best Ive seen in a long time.

Yeah normally we get these synoptics late march/early april when the SPV itsn't running the show. 

Think this cold spell may have some legs, obviously with milder interludes. we shall see. 

[Matt H]

GFS 18z parallel run is also pretty good this evening out to t192. Brilliant end to the day!

Edited December 26, 2020 by Frosty Winter

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, danthetan said:

Best Ive seen in a long time.

Yeah normally we get these synoptics late march/early april when the SPV itsn't running the show. 

Think this cold spell may have some legs, obviously with milder interludes. we shall see. 

Exactly the spv has had no chance to impact ohr weather yet its remarkable!

We will obviously see milder interludes but i believe these will accompany snow from channel lows and diving low pressures from Greenland though!!

[kumquat]

18z ends on a high note with repeat written all over it.

[danthetan]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Exactly the spv has had no chance to impact ohr weather yet its remarkable!

We will obviously see milder interludes but i believe these will accompany snow from channel lows and diving low pressures from Greenland though!!

Indeed could be a classic. 

[Tim Bland]

Latest Arpege for Monday shifts the focus south East a bit ...

Edited December 26, 2020 by Tim Bland

[Scott Ingham]

The euro418z pushew the action wayyy south. 

Not showing a lot of precipitation for anybody

Although checking snowfall accumaltions theres not a huge differnce so i have no idea whats gone on with that run!

A lot of it looked sleety as well ..

Who knows! 

Would love to see ukv

Edited December 26, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[Matty J]

5 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Latest Arpege for Monday shifts the focus south East a bit ...

This ties in with the 10:55pm forcast on the BBC. Although they did stress a huge degree of uncertainty.

For my location a touch more east would be perfect.

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Latest Arpege for Monday shifts the focus south East a bit ...

Ca va Tim? 

Lundi, Monday, Mardi Tuesday, but I get what you mean. 

[Mark Neal.]

18Z Arpege. Certainly not showing a snowy picture compared to the ICON/UKV. It does have a secondary low that moves in off the North Sea later on monday and into tuesday that sweeps down into E.Anglia and then SE. 

 

[Kasim Awan]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

The euro418z pushew the action wayyy south. 

Not showing a lot of precipitation for anybody

Euro4 seems a bit too scattered with the ppn

[kumquat]

You can feel it in Storm Bella now. If the freeze level drops a bit in slack winds and low thicknesses, somewhere with heavy ppn will get proper dumped on.

[Scott Ingham]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Euro4 seems a bit too scattered with the ppn

Yeah thats what i found....

Whats your thoughts?

[Tim Bland]

3 minutes ago, Griff said:

Ca va Tim? 

Lundi, Monday, Mardi Tuesday, but I get what you mean. 

Oui Ca Va really should have listened in French at school! I was just showing the total from the Monday snow. It would be the same 6 hrs earlier

[Mark Neal.]

The aforementioned Euro4. 18z.  Shows the low pressure in Ireland and then NW, coming through Wales and does come through parts of central england and southern, not as organised band as ICON but there is still some snow showing and system does pivot through course of Monday.

 

Edited December 26, 2020 by Mark Neal.
Wrong gif.

[Kasim Awan]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah thats what i found....

Whats your thoughts?

Band passes gives 2-3cm before pivotting somewhere in the Midlands >10cm possible. Very marginal south of M4.

Where the pivot occurrs more prolonged snowfall is possible well into Monday and potentially further south. 2km NMM now in out to +T36.

[Tim Bland]

Many would be happy with the Euro4 ..

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Tim Bland said:

Oui Ca Va really should have listened in French at school! I was just showing the total from the Monday snow. It would be the same 6 hrs earlier

I understood, just being a male poulet! 

[kumquat]

Apres avoir explique qu'est qui se passe il neige.  

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Kasim Awan said:

Band passes gives 2-3cm before pivotting somewhere in the Midlands >10cm possible. Very marginal south of M4.

Where the pivot occurrs more prolonged snowfall is possible well into Monday and potentially further south. 2km NMM now in out to +T36.

Too fat west that for me

[Griff]

1 minute ago, Scott Ingham said:

Too fat west that for me

Youth speak? 

Loving all the positivity this evening

Edited December 26, 2020 by Griff

[Scott Ingham]

3 minutes ago, Mark Neal. said:

The aforementioned Euro4. 18z.  Shows the low pressure in Ireland and then NW, coming through Wales and does come through parts of central england and southern, not as organised band as ICON but there is still some snow showing and system does pivot through course of Monday.

 

I dont know why i said south thats clearly a lot further north looking at where the pivot is. It looks less in intensity and a bit more marginal to me.

Its definitely a now cast!