Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Frosty.]

Wow..I’ve seen worse means from the GEFS..although, I have too admit I did have too skip a few frames until the 6z got back on track..phew.. what a relief!!..chin up fellow coldies..I have a good feeling in my water..although that could be the booze talking!  

Edited December 26, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Weathizard]

Let’s hope the 12z’s reverse the trend of the energy flattening the ridge somewhat, the 12z icon has flattened the ridge much more

[Updated_Weather]

3 minutes ago, DogToffee said:

Where's the red warning? I can see an orange one for wind in the south, but only yellows otherwise.

Not an actual red warning

[DogToffee]

Just now, Updated_Weather said:

Not an actual red warning

I'm slow...

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Let’s hope the 12z’s reverse the trend of the energy flattening the ridge somewhat, the 12z icon has flattened the ridge much more

However the jet at 168 is still highly amplified

NB > 168

Very slack winds ~ 850's circa -5c

Net surface T2Ms at lunch Sat

 

[iceman1991]

7 minutes ago, Jon Snow said:

Wow..I’ve seen worse means from the GEFS..although, I have too admit I did have too skip a few frames until the 6z got back on track..phew.. what a relief!!..chin up fellow coldies..I have a good feeling in my water..although that could be the booze talking!  

Love the positivity Jon snow

[sheikhy]

1 minute ago, Steve Murr said:

However the jet at 168 is still highly amplified

NB > 168

Very slack winds ~ 850's circa -5c

Net surface T2Ms at lunch Sat

 

Very very good icon!!!cold!! snow anywhere and thats right out to 180 hours!!!!

[Skullzrulerz]

10 minutes ago, Battleground Snow said:

Minor improvements on the icon in relation to the ridge into Greenland, the low around Newfoundland ideally needs to stay further south west to help suck better heights up. 06z v 12z

 

Though looks good and infact better to start off with it unfortunately seems worse especially in the end of its run as it's flattens out the ridge more so then the 0z

Not the great start we wanted with the 12z

[Djdazzle]

The last two posts totally contra diff each other. No wonder people find this place frustrating sometimes.

Maybe a second opinion from somebody else about the ICON 12z?

 

[Skullzrulerz]

4 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Very very good icon!!!cold!! snow anywhere and thats right out to 180 hours!!!!

It's a good start to the run if not better then the 0z I agree with you on that

Big issue we lose most of the ridge that was "better" on this run though we do still remain cold because of the slack winds and the jet still being quite amplified

With me though it doesn't give any hope in regards to longevity

 

[dragan]

2 minutes ago, Djdazzle said:

The last two posts totally contra diff each other. No wonder people find this place frustrating sometimes.

Maybe a second opinion from somebody else about the ICON 12z?

 

or why not have a look at the models yourself and make your own opinion? 

[SMU]

6 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

Though looks good and infact better to start off with it unfortunately seems worse especially in the end of its run as it's flattens out the ridge more so then the 0z

Not the great start we wanted with the 12z

Jet stream at 180.

Not sure where you making an assumption that its flattening out....

Theres only one way for the energy to go from the atlantic & thats underneath....

 

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Love the positivity Jon snow

Cheers mate, won’t be popular but at least anyone who has seen the GEFS 6z mean will know what I say is accurate!

Edited December 26, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Winter Hill]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It's a good start to the run if not better then the 0z I agree with you on that

Big issue we lose most of the ridge that was "better" on this run though we do still remain cold because of the slack winds and the jet still being quite amplified

With me though it doesn't give any hope in regards to longevity

 

Do you ever take a day off.

post some chats to back your claims up.

[Kasim Awan]

ICON is sending trough energy SE on a highly tilted jet. This would keep the overall mean flow in the north east quadrant.

Out to day 10 would be cold on the surface & potentially quite snowy for some.

[Smokeone]

Amazing how two different people say the opposite to each other on the ICON run. Does become a little confusing in here at times. Looking forward to the GFS 12z compared to the last couple of runs.

Edited December 26, 2020 by Smokeone

[Skullzrulerz]

6 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Jet stream at 180.

Not sure where you making an assumption that its flattening out....

Theres only one way for the energy to go from the atlantic & thats underneath....

 

I'm talking about the ridge that has been flatten by the energy unlike the 0z run though wasn't as good it did still have a ridging of sorts around Greenland 

I said my opinion 

Hopefully the GFS will keep the ridge in place 

[Eagle Eye]

Jet Stream at T+288. 

Great energy coming down from Greenland will most likely bring Snow. 

 

[Kasim Awan]

Just now, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm talking about the ridge that has been flatten by the energy unlike the 0z run though wasn't as good it did still have a ridging of sorts around Greenland 

I said my opinion 

Hopefully the GFS will keep the ridge in place 

The ridge can not sustain forever. Ultimately it will flatten & reamplify..

[Day 10]

8 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It's a good start to the run if not better then the 0z I agree with you on that

Big issue we lose most of the ridge that was "better" on this run though we do still remain cold because of the slack winds and the jet still being quite amplified

With me though it doesn't give any hope in regards to longevity

 

Positive thinkers find opportunities and negative thinkers find problems. How you interpret a situation is really just a choice, don't waste your life looking for problems.

Incase you hadn't noticed, there are snow chances from tomorrow. 

Merry Christmas ☺ 

[Methuselah]

4 minutes ago, Smokeone said:

Amazing how two different people say the opposite to each other on the ICON run. Does become a little confusing in here at times. Looking forward to the GFS 12z compared to the last couple of runs.

Which, from a logical perspective, can only mean one thing: either one or both posters are talking cobblers?!

[Matt H]

2 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

I'm talking about the ridge that has been flatten by the energy unlike the 0z run though wasn't as good it did still have a ridging of sorts around Greenland 

I said my opinion 

Hopefully the GFS will keep the ridge in place 

I love reading a range of opinions in here but the charts you’re calling flat are about as flat as Mt Everest in my opinion...

[Harsh Climate]

Back edge snow anybody?  Maybe a suprise covering for some sunday morning. 

[radiohead]

GFS snow accumulation up to Tuesday night.

 

[sheikhy]

Hmmm stronger ridge in the atlantic at 102 hours on 12z gfs!!!