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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year


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Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
23 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

In respect of the greeny heights at day 10, a look at the clusters is revealing. There is a 25% option which has lower heights squeezing the upper ridge south at day 11. The  70% option is wow .......the op is in the 20% cluster at day 10. 

 

I,m assuming the 70% option is either major reamplification or proper green high blue.

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Posted
  • Location: Morecambe
  • Location: Morecambe
33 minutes ago, Skullzrulerz said:

It's clear to say that compared to the last few days today's model viewing for terms of cold and especially Greenland and to a extent Atlantic Heights have been watered downed, downgraded there's no other way around it that it has gone to great to ok in just a day especially 

Looking back a few days ago we have seen charts that assemble so much blocking around Greenland that it had a black hole in the charts because it was so strong and we also had Atlantic Heights that were robust 

Now we don't have as much in terms of heights and it's only to keep things together for a few days to a week 

Yet again we are now on the hunt for any cold spell is 10 days away if not longer especially if you want large parts of England to get snowfall 

It is somewhat upsetting that some people seem to belittle if not insult or be rude to other people's who are just clearly giving a opinion of how the models are trending 

Thankfully we do have "background signals" next month will should help but by no means guaranteed bring in any colder if not very cold air 

 

I'm a little confused by this post, the output looks fairly similar as it has been, perhaps we are seeing more of a northerly flow but the UK is still forecast to be on the cold side ofthe jet. 

The lack of significant cold has always been an issue and continues to be, it is very disappointing given the set up we are struggling to get uppers around - 10 developing but there we are. Still maintain any snowfall will be transient in nature unfortunately. 

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Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
3 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Go back to your family and come back here later. Otherwise one day they may not be there to go back to. Experience tells me that. The output will still look good tomorrow!

No - snow isn't a matter of life or death - its even more important than that.

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17 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I don’t think Frosty’s response was overly hard - probably best to support your conclusions with some evidence. The “flatter” shape of things you refer to is best seen here at 240

image.thumb.png.012b88686c9ec706564a97bbf365cb6d.png
but for several reasons this isn’t the trigger to a flat pattern. Notice the trough underpinning that “flatter” shaped high. Notice too the wedge of heights between the 2 deepest parts of the vortex Greenland/Canada. Perhaps most importantly of all note the -AO signature with the pole controlled by a ridge, and the reality of a very strong pacific jet streak coming through at this point as forecast in a number of places recently.

image.thumb.png.010b5beb197a38c7e413e6f7f0b33ec6.png

That jet streak will reamplify the downstream pattern with ease, not least because the Atlantic is already effectively halted/blocked. And when you factor in the shape of the lower strat vortex and in particular the average westerly wind speed (look bottom right) you will note that this pattern is a very long way off flattening out. Net westerly wind speeds are barely positive!

image.thumb.png.3d79c9b0015fe70f7ad41a0f87561e89.png

All that is actually happening is a slight relaxing of the meridional pattern because our global weather setup is driven by waves - and by definition a wave cannot remain “up” all the time. The best way of describing how things work I think is to see a natural waxing and waning of any pattern as wave energy comes and goes. @Glacier Point used to refer to this a lot - I wish he would drop in and add some thoughts at this very exciting juncture.

My own reading of this 240 chart is that it is extremely good. Cold air in place, and at last a bit of Canadian arctic sourced energy shifting SE towards Iceland. When the next waxing of the pattern occurs 2/3 days later the ridge gains more traction into Greenland and that arctic air fizzes south into our already coldish pattern. GFS is not very dissimilar in the Atlantic at 240 and the 264 image looks like this

image.thumb.png.6271aa2ba2e28ddc676abe90dbf0bad9.png

Cold becoming colder. That sliding trough would be a proper snow maker to be followed probably by an easterly as it passes through...,,

Spot on explanation re the waving. Bouts of polar jet injection are somewhat neccessary to sustain the overall pattern. During the approach of the wave the synoptic pattern may appear flatter. Due to the larger scale continouscpattern of recurring high amplification the wave will likely be broken again. 

This is a cycle of continuous injection and amplification which at the large scale we are seeing already.

Edited by Kasim Awan
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Posted
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea
  • Weather Preferences: Warm, bright summers and Cold, snowy winters
  • Location: Essex, Southend-On-Sea

Flatter would be W>E

All I am seeing is N>S or NW>SE. Hardly flat and those are the types of set-ups that can deliver especially those NE of any diving lows... its a cold set-up not a mild one, not a bitter cold beast from the east ordeal but one that requires far less set-up.

The idea of a wedge north will be difficult to be modelled especially by the GFS, if a wedge forms and cold air is east then it doesnt take a genius to work how we get snow. Unforunately a large blocking high with convective cold uppers isn't something that I am seeing in the output. But it will be cold for the next 2 weeks with temps really struggling to get above 4c with many places likely being colder.  Jan 2013 models struggled relentlessy against the northern wedge and a low dropping south through the UK.

Dont be surprised if a GFS op gives us an Easterly at some point over the next day or so..

 

 

Edited by Snowman.
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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
47 minutes ago, Griff said:

Same @Kasim Awan and @Scott Ingham

I've noticed when a new member posts occasionally you can cut the air here with a knife, no disrespect, but all groups have norms, cliques and gladly here, often cohesion. 

It can sometimes take a while for the group to adjust that's all, but it's normal. All the better for change! 

I'm old enough to remember when @sheikhy was spelt differently and had several more digits after his posts count... Unlike @sheikhy who's old enough to forget his password and login details...

Learning so much, feeling really positive and looking forward to the new year, thanks all! 

Eidt: quick confession I always without fail read @Allseasons-si as Allison, and in my mind she's cute but clever

Thanks mate! Merry Christmas!

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Posted
  • Location: Battersea, London
  • Location: Battersea, London

 The good thing is that, the models are showing Europe cooling down gradually, so if  the wind turn easterly ,we have the advantage of cooler temperatures and lower dew points, to give us a greater chance of snow fall in future, unlike last week, when the temperatures were well above normal over much of Europe, from a southerly feed of winds.

Gender Male

Location Battersea, London.

ECM0-144.gif

ECM0-192.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Cambridge
  • Weather Preferences: Cold, snow, heat, sunshine and thunderstorms. Anything severe.
  • Location: Cambridge
19 minutes ago, chionomaniac said:

Go back to your family and come back here later. Otherwise one day they may not be there to go back to. Experience tells me that. The output will still look good tomorrow!

Such an important thing to remember, but it’s also a testament to how wonderful this community is. It has been a weird Christmas to say the least this year and it has been a hard year for everyone so here’s hoping that the weather delivers for us during the rest of the winter!

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL

Things must be pretty good that ECM op was on milder side of pack... danger of west -NAO has massively dropped only extreme FI in EPS you see a danger there. Cold or very cold? Take your pick.

BEBD276E-EDBC-4FD7-B485-3406E53F63A0.thumb.gif.df88df5191f3e371697757d0b210b064.gif

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Posted
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
  • Location: Rotherham, East Dene
6 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Just the weather?!

I should rephrase. Hahaha! There are more important things in life and your family and friends at christmas are two of them.

I love the weather especially snow. In fact im obsessed but you still need to be able to grab some perspective

Edited by Scott Ingham
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Posted
  • Location: Leicester
  • Location: Leicester

Any news on icon 18z and the snow on sunday monday!!!just stopped outside my outlaws house to pick up my wife so i managed to get this cheeky post in quickly

Edited by sheikhy
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3 minutes ago, Mike Poole said:

I was struck by the amount of snow forecast on the 12z EURO4, here cumulative snow to T54:

8C550217-708D-4849-8D21-673882C3CEFB.thumb.png.35e8c7fa7794aef636f1c3b1ab75a505.png

And that is before the starter let alone the main course.  Just the lime pickle really, or bread roll.  

Well overdone that. Last time I checked snow doesn't settle on the sea unless the Euro4/meteociel has been on the vino too tonight.

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Posted
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
  • Location: Maldon, Essex
1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

Well overdone that. Last time I checked snow doesn't settle on the sea unless the Euro4/meteociel has been on the vino too tonight.

Unless it thinks the sea will freeze over - then it will settle!

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