Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[Eagle Eye]

Jet Stream good for short bursts of Wintery Weather but not great for LONG LASTING WINTER WEATHER.

 

[Catacol]

1 hour ago, Griff said:

I'm about to post a Christmas cracker on the tweet thread that will 100 cause a stir here.... 

yes - the major pacific jet burst that will ensure guaranteed amplification through early January. Well forecast and flagged already. To all worrying about GEFS reduction of northerly heights I’d be very certain that any gentle modification that might come to the meridional pattern will be short lived. Look for a significant reload as we move through week 1 of January. By that stage the bigger issue will be whether deeper cold can gather in the right place to properly reinforce the marginal cold that is setting up shop prior to New Year.

All good. Happy Christmas!

[Eagle Eye]

GEM is giving us a gem.

[Frosty.]

Ok, listen, a 2010 redux I would love you long time   ..but..the extended ECM 0z ensemble mean..I will still love you long time  ...high pressure well too the west ..BINGO..!!..charts may be messed up..so what, I’ve been drinking..,it’s crimbo day & I love alcohol..go figure!

Edited December 25, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Eagle Eye]

Great for keeping Snow over the UK.

Will most likely be Snaw somewhere.

[Eagle Eye]

3 hours ago, AWD said:

Mate, what the hell have you just drawn there? 

I'm not a great drawer.

[Man With Beard]

14 hours ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM D9: mean 1030mb high, not far off just to the south. I don't sit on the fence when there's a mean 1030mb high - I'm calling a Greenland High and negative NAO to begin the New Year. Only a west based -nao can stop a cold start to 2021.

 

This didn't age well - lesson to self, don't jump at the first ensemble set that shows what you are looking for! Greenland High not looking quite as secure this morning, but heights to the NW still look the form horse shortly after New Year.

[kold weather]

23 minutes ago, Catacol said:

yes - the major pacific jet burst that will ensure guaranteed amplification through early January. Well forecast and flagged already. To all worrying about GEFS reduction of northerly heights I’d be very certain that any gentle modification that might come to the meridional pattern will be short lived. Look for a significant reload as we move through week 1 of January. By that stage the bigger issue will be whether deeper cold can gather in the right place to properly reinforce the marginal cold that is setting up shop prior to New Year.

All good. Happy Christmas!

Also just to add to the above, several cold spells that sustained in the past often saw the GEFS suite being very overly keen to reduce heights across the Arctic/to our north too quickly. Indeed in some of those cases there was a reshot of cold that ended up being more intense than the first (Dec-Jan 09 and Dec 10 both spring to mind immediately, to a lesser extent Feb and Mar 2018 as well, though that time seasonal warming ensured the 2nd shot wasn't quite as severe).

 

[MATTWOLVES 3]

@Griff thanks for the heads up on the twitter thread.. Great news..I've just been trying to explain this to family...regarding the major warming event coming up...and all I keep getting back is....I thought you said it was getting colder!! I give up..

Hopefully we will be seeing more of these deep fi ensembles becoming much closer in time frames very soon.

ohh..and heres a big up from the missus....rrrrrr dream on Matt

Edited December 25, 2020 by MATTWOLVES

[Frosty.]

Ok..I may be a god damn drunk but I know a cold GEFS 6z mean when I see one!..and god damn, it looks cold in early Janvier!..did I mention..I love the french .,that’s why I say JANVIER!

 

charts upside down, oops.so veery sowwy

Edited December 25, 2020 by Jon Snow

[Sky High]

Merry Christmas Everyone!

Thank you for all your valuable input over the last year.

And in the words of a Snow Watch Legend. Stock up on yer mince pies! According to the grebes there's some intresting weather coming.

[Eagle Eye]

This took ages lol, my Prediction for the t+300 or so(I wasn't going to do every Colour sso these are the Spots of the Low's and Highs)

Edited December 25, 2020 by Sheldon Cooper

[feb1991blizzard]

WOW - snowing! - good job i reveresed my no white xmas bet!!

[Eagle Eye]

T+78 has a massive centralied Low over the UK.

[Frigid]

Currently snowing in Manchester!!! Totally unexpected, last night was showing none of it. First white Christmas in idk how long. 

[syed2878]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

Looks, to me, as if the cold air has absolutely nowhere to go; it's stuck between the Russian and Atlantic HP systems... So cold/rather cold, and quite unsettled for the foreseeable? No robust signals for either a return to mild mush or a BFTE?

    

Wait and see what the SSW does...?

  ur rite and the met had theme thought they were going with a cold month with mild spells at time

[bluearmy]

Monday’s snow on the 06z eps control 

 

[Eagle Eye]

HOLY MOLY THAT'S A DROP !!!

[Howie]

5 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

HOLY MOLY THAT'S A DROP !!!

Amazing!

[Eagle Eye]

Long lasting Low sitting there great for cold and Snow fans.

[kold weather]

10 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Monday’s snow on the 06z eps control 

 

Very similar to the 00z ECM operational as well.

Still I can't help but shake the GFS maybe closer to the mark, these things do usually shift south closer to the time and broadly they have been already shifting southwards in the last 4-8 suites.

Hope I'm wrong with that as IMBY thats a pretty tasty chart, whilst not huge snow here it'd give a nice dusting.

[Eagle Eye]

Bring out your happy faces because that has got us an Arctic Northernly feeding in for Weaks with to weak a High to Stop it. 

[BARRY]

3 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Bring out your happy faces because that has got us an Arctic Northernly feeding in for Weaks with to weak a High to Stop it. 

Good agreement there if it comes off 

[ANYWEATHER]

Models are shaping up very nicely for a very cold and prolonged cold spell. At the moment models are showing nothing really exceptional but I think over the coming week and beyond we will see some bitter winter weather showing up on the models. I remember how the models struggled ten years ago but in reality what that Winter gave us was some exceptional cold snowy weather for the first half of that winter. Anyway Merry Christmas to everyone enjoy the forthcoming Winter roller coaster ride and thanks to Paul and Co for the best weather website on the planet.

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Go check out the Met update.. big upgrade for me...if they keep pushing that mild back any further,it will be into April..Thats a good Xmas present for me...the Turkey can get stuffed now..Really positive output today,and the trends look good...A major SSW is looking increasingly likely as we enter January...now if this comes off and falls correctly,it will be coming a month earlier than the FEB 2018 one. That really does put us in a great place.

Enjoy the rest of your days..