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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

BlueHedgehog074

By BlueHedgehog074
in Forecast Model Discussion

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AWD Veteran

AWD

Posted
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Storms, Gales, frost, fog & snow
  • Location: Longwell Green, near Bristol
Posted
32 minutes ago, Sheldon Cooper said:

Merry Christmas

Too Late. :drunk-emoji:

1362874596_44742358858620201225_084639.thumb.jpg.83d4165b785ca0ea321418a6a1488bac.jpg

Mate, what the hell have you just drawn there? 

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tight isobar Maestro

tight isobar

Posted
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
  • Weather Preferences: blizzard conditions. ice days
  • Location: uxbridge middlesex(- also Bampton oxfordshire
Posted
2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

All 7s and 6s on the Bbc forecast next week . Not very good is it!!

That’ll look a fair bit-different by this time tomorrow!!!!

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BARRY Aficionado

BARRY

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Posted
2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

All 7s and 6s on the Bbc forecast next week . Not very good is it!!

Think they need a new weather service.

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NeilN Aficionado

NeilN

Posted
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
  • Location: weston-super-mare, UK
Posted
4 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

All 7s and 6s on the Bbc forecast next week . Not very good is it!!

Don't they have a habit of underplaying things? 

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AdrianHull Enthusiast

AdrianHull

Posted
  • Location: Rookhope, North Pennines.
  • Location: Rookhope, North Pennines.
Posted
8 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

All 7s and 6s on the Bbc forecast next week . Not very good is it!!

For your location though. 1 to -2 for me all week but this should be mentioned in the regionals as it can be confusing.

Hopefully they are wrong for you though. Seems a bit extreme...

 

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alexisj9 Maestro

alexisj9

Posted
  • Location: St rads Dover
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, T Storms.
  • Location: St rads Dover
Posted
1 hour ago, Kasim Awan said:

Btw there is currently a split UKMO/Arpege favour a more north easterly track hitting the North Mids / N Eng - the rest further south affecting the areas noted above. Both these tracks are viable however I tend to favour a middleground option in these occassions, so through the Mids..

It's normally the way, although often it goes slightly south of whatever is showing the day before.

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)

I'm only going to provide a link to this updated forecast. A few of you may need to change your pants upon reading. Sorry mods but it's christmas and it has to be the most factual forecast I've ever read from them. Check out the change of NO high pressure from early Jan

og-image.png

favicon.ico BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.COM
Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest...

 

 

Edited by winterof79
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Sweatyman Seasoned

Sweatyman

Posted
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
  • Weather Preferences: Hot n cold
  • Location: Bournville Birmingham
Posted
9 minutes ago, tight isobar said:

That’ll look a fair bit-different by this time tomorrow!!!!

Blummin hope so !!

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
Posted

I normally frequent the storms threads in spring and summer but am a lurker in here. I wanted to pop in and wish everyone on Netweather a very merry Christmas and a happy, snowy New Year. This really is a great forum and a place where weather enthusiasts like myself can pull together and enjoy a shared hobby. 

The future is looking cold and snowy. It's been a long time since I saw charts the likes we are currently seeing, especially for mid winter. Living close to the Peak District I am hopeful of seeing snow next week, even if I have to make a short drive to see it.

Enjoy Christmas and let's hope that the snowy predictions become a snowy reality. Cheers to all

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Howie Rising Star

Howie

Posted
  • Location: North London
  • Location: North London
Posted
2 minutes ago, winterof79 said:

I'm only going to provide a link to this updated forecast. A few of you may need to change your pants upon reading. Sorry mods but it's christmas

og-image.png

favicon.ico BBC Weather

WWW.BBC.COM
Latest weather conditions and forecasts for the UK and the world. Includes up to 14-days of hourly forecast information, warnings, maps, and the latest...

 

 

I saw this! They're really going for it

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Tim Bland Maestro

Tim Bland

Posted
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
  • Location: STEVENAGE, HERTS (100M ASL)
Posted (edited)
59 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

I would not write off the snow risk for the 28th-29th if the initial shortwave on the 28th tracks too far south. This track would allow further shortwave developments further north into the 29th, as the parent low is still lively enough. Slightly colder dew points are also dragged in by shortwave #1. 

Icon adjusts even further so the precip just clips the south west. As you say the change creates new opportunities though. Such as this front off to our east coming inland.. 

9E2A968F-5969-40A9-A851-29BC38EEB230.jpeg

1B0F345A-E398-4C12-9153-472EA42E8625.png

84C7A480-2648-4058-B3AB-2D43B45E4E66.png

F79AAF23-E2E5-4573-94D1-C92EC8C8A5B9.jpeg

9B97986A-BFE5-49B0-88CB-B02A7DFEDB29.jpeg

Edited by Tim Bland
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danm Maestro

danm

Posted
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
  • Weather Preferences: Winter: cold and snowy. Summer: hot and sunny
  • Location: Home: Chingford, London (NE). Work: London (C)
Posted
2 hours ago, Tim Bland said:

Merry Christmas everyone. ECM gift is 20cm on the ground for some this time next week! 

240D0681-B440-47C9-9B8E-2DDB4D381715.jpeg

16cm? I’ll take that thanks

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I remember Atlantic 252 Maestro

I remember Atlantic 252

Posted
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
  • Weather Preferences: obviously snow!
  • Location: Wildwood, Stafford 104m asl
Posted

would have thought off this 100 percent rain from Cheshire Gap, need -10 850's off this convective setup 2image.thumb.png.0d5b483429bf26abc7cebab6b79ee894.png

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BARRY Aficionado

BARRY

Posted
  • Location: frogmore south devon
  • Location: frogmore south devon
Posted
1 minute ago, Howie said:

Wow! I've noticed with each day that the models are trending colder and colder for next week 

interesting times ahead

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