Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

[sparky1972]

morning all and a very happy xmas, loving the xmas cheer regarding the model output if its cold and snow you like, for imby though the forecast looks like the grinch who stole snow, lol, but whatever the weather gives us i hope everyone stays safe and enjoys their Xmas and New Year and hoping 2021 is better for us all.

[blizzard81]

A very merry Christmas to all. Have a fab day . Lots to look forward to on the 'cold' weather front. Haven't been able to say that for many an Xmas

[Methuselah]

Happy Flyingspaghettimonstermass everyone, from a definitely not white East Suffolk... Hope for something on Monday. GFS permitting!

[Sweatyman]

26 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Really annoying it is Allergic to cover the South West  you'd think it be in a good spot.. 3rd January great chart except for the South West.. mmm always get warm sectors if there is one.. must be a reason we attract the unattractable 

it'll change!

[That ECM]

Officially a white Christmas for some

[Dave Kightley]

2 minutes ago, Sweatyman said:

it'll change!

Been waiting for as long as it has been modelled to cover us... impatient I am lol Thankfully I doubt they are reliable anyway

Edited December 25, 2020 by Dave Kightley

[Cloud 10]

Santa onboard with latest output.

 

Merry Christmas!

 

[SLEETY]

Merry Frosty Christmas, Everyone. 

Hope everyone sees some Snow in the coming days, and hopefully weeks ahead. 

We all deserve it considering we come back here winter after winter to be greeted with crud looking charts for weeks and weeks lol

Looks even colder after next week! 

Edited December 25, 2020 by SLEETY

[Kasim Awan]

Well we have a white Christmas... Something very significant is definitely coming. 00z is the last straw for me.

[rowan fawdon]

Ever a lurker, learning lots though, but had to pop my head in to say Happy Christmas to you lovely lot. Its been such an amazing couple of months or so, and such excellent  posts. Extra thanks to those who remember us rookies who dont know all the abbreviations and how the atmosphere ticks.Have a fabulous Christmas and roll on the crispy-white encrusted New Year!

[sheikhy]

Just woke up and i really cant believe what im seeing!!the models are gorgeoussss all the way through!!!!

[Skullzrulerz]

Merry Christmas Everyone! Hope everyone has a fantastic day

[Kasim Awan]

As we continue to see waves of amplification, the way low energy is dealt with will likely become increasingly unusual. In T0 to T144 the amplification is due north however the next bout is modelled to surge North East. This results in immobilization of low energy over SW / Central Europe, shown on GEM. The GEM hints at this in a very cold way today. I feel this is a credible way of dealing with some zonal energy given the extreme signal for a Griceland high surge.

Edited December 25, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[Tim Bland]

Yes Kasim! Every corner of the Uk gets a covering by day 10 on the GEM

[Eagle Eye]

10 hours ago, MATTWOLVES said:

 

Edit...I think @Sheldon Cooper is gerrin overly excited,he's said Merry Xmas a thousand times this evening....keep of the sherry mate...santa will be with you soon..

Merry Christmas

Too Late. 

[snowking]

Merry Christmas everyone, I hope you all got a snow machine in your stockings

Not that you will need one for the foreseeable

[kold weather]

22 minutes ago, Kasim Awan said:

Well we have a white Christmas... Something very significant is definitely coming. 00z is the last straw for me.

Potential is there for a significant snow spell over the next 2 weeks.

28-29th is still cold enough but uncertainty over track of any secondary low has if anything strengthened. If anyone odds of it ending up too far south have gone up 

However that still puts us in a good spot for a second bite down the line.

[Djdazzle]

Still lots of potential in the charts this morning, with the possibility of some significant snow. However, keep yourselves grounded, because there is still a fair chance that some places will get none!

[Kasim Awan]

8 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Potential is there for a significant snow spell over the next 2 weeks.

28-29th is still cold enough but uncertainty over track of any secondary low has if anything strengthened. If anyone odds of it ending up too far south have gone up 

However that still puts us in a good spot for a second bite down the line.

I would not write off the snow risk for the 28th-29th if the initial shortwave on the 28th tracks too far south. This track would allow further shortwave developments further north into the 29th, as the parent low is still lively enough. Slightly colder dew points are also dragged in by shortwave #1. 

Edited December 25, 2020 by Kasim Awan

[I remember Atlantic 252]

1 minute ago, Kasim Awan said:

I would not write off the snow risk for the 28th-29th if the initial shortwave on the 28th tracks too far south. This track would allow further shortwave developments further north into the 29th, as the parent low is still lively enough.

3/4 Jan is the interest! EC best track! GFS too far east, control, too far SW, 28 Dec, south, 29th-30th Cheshire Gap rain

[winterof79]

1 hour ago, Premier Neige said:

That's not true! It manages to avoid the whole of Yorkshire as well.....particularly the bit where I live!

Luckily it's over a week away so subject to change....

There will be some seriously disappointed peeps if you take those as gospel. 

Forecasting snow events is extremely difficult. 

These forecasts are not one-and-done. They evolve throughout the day as the event unfolds. 

I will add that the models will only pick up major disruptions at this point. Once our cold pool evolves there will be surprises galore. Merry Christmas from Portugal. I'm back on the 3rd please save me some snow. 

Edited December 25, 2020 by winterof79

[Mair Snaw]

Models looking amazing again... i got beer for Christmas so thats me off to get hammered... happy Christmas to all you crazy weather fools...snaw for all...❄❄❄❄❄

[sheikhy]

Gfs 18z as i thought went off one last night in giving 13cms of snow for my location!!expect further downgrades for my location at least with further southward movements to come!!!this for the 28th 29th and not what happens after

Edited December 25, 2020 by sheikhy

[feb1991blizzard]

1 hour ago, Tim Bland said:

Merry Christmas everyone. ECM gift is 20cm on the ground for some this time next week! 

To say where it will snow is difficult but no prises for predicting where it wont snow though.

[snowblind]

3 minutes ago, sheikhy said:

Gfs 18z as i thought went off one last night in giving 13cms of snow for my location!!expect further downgrades for my location at least with further southward movements to come!!!this for the 28th 29th and not what happens after

Latest met office east of England forecast for Sunday to Tuesday going for showers or longer spells of rain. No mention of snow at all.