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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

BlueHedgehog074

By BlueHedgehog074
in Forecast Model Discussion

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iceman1991 Enthusiast

iceman1991

Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
Posted
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

At that range 48 hours the scope for change is about 50-100 miles either way & the depth dubious but the track is firming up now...

Thanks Steve 

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PiscesStar Rising Star

PiscesStar

Posted
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
  • Location: Herne Bay Kent
Posted
2 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

At that range 48 hours the scope for change is about 50-100 miles either way & the depth dubious but the track is firming up now...

Merry Christmas Steve from me to you and yours.. One of the best contributors on here x

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cyclonic happiness Accomplished

cyclonic happiness

Posted
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
  • Location: Bedworth, North Warwickshire 404ft above sea level
Posted
14 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Happy crimbo ☃️☃️☃️

Mondays snow from the ECM....

B33758B7-B360-4A26-8A7B-AF19882D7AB2.thumb.jpeg.f634c56b03060494e147c93d3b5d3dac.jpeg

That has to be wrong, everyone know it doesn't snow south of the M4 corridor

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mountain shadow Maestro

mountain shadow

Posted
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
  • Location: Carryduff, County Down 420ft ASL
Posted
34 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

EC looks cold...

With some snow around ...

How fabulous in mid Winter...

image.thumb.png.89f2885cf036308abcdc675bcdfc9e76.png

Cold, yes. But not proper cold with again uninspiring uppers.

Despite a remarkable period of winds from a Northerly type direction we just cannot seem to get proper cold air in the mix.

Hopefully some localised areas will get some transient snow next week though.

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
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Posted

:santa-emoji:Merry Christmas Gang..more stellar 0z output, I think the words snow fest could be used in the next few weeks!...I’m not even going to mention lack of balloon data..oops I just did...but honestly, I have a very good feeling about our chances of wintry hazards, unlike recent pathetic winters!!...have a great day, enjoy your and  

0997A045-B5B8-4A01-9F90-29248E1A34A1.thumb.png.e46c2ce301b5cbac35a0f2dd0697e0b3.png22DFB567-E665-4426-9C84-DDA67D19E9E2.thumb.png.f26bae78aa81557b33a748b58eb16108.png1EDE95A6-B61C-4216-A933-EB551C0FC267.thumb.png.7602399f6c91d5891e9af6ffbbe01acd.png15AB0218-C060-470F-86C6-78C3117D3B05.jpeg.bad966250d407ab6704f4e7edf6bad28.jpeg

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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
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Posted (edited)

Early look at the extended EPS mean suggests the low heights anomaly that was featuring to our south west has moved significantly east to sit to the south of us.  This suggests the number of aggressive west based negative NAO solutions have reduced compared to yesterday evening.  Overall the extended EPS are superb - possibly the best of the winter.

Edited by mulzy
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johnholmes Maestro

johnholmes

Posted
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
  • Location: just south of Doncaster, Sth Yorks
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Posted

Happy Christmas to everyone

No chat just charts to add to the mix

In brief=looks like more of the same for 6-14 days from now!

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Daniel* Maestro

Daniel*

Posted
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
  • Location: Rotherhithe, 5.8M ASL
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Posted

Merry Xmas all, have a good one! Later next week trending colder and well less marginal and snowier you could say, excitement is ramping up, so much for a chilly spell?  
 

The coldest spell of winter weather since 2018 is looking quite likely. Not quite frigid but cold enough for most days to feature wintriness.

25AE1D93-FD94-4901-A29D-7B5161B3349D.thumb.png.7e52abc9ba9b70322d6719850094bd7a.png

 

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Day 10 Maestro

Day 10

Posted
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Weather Preferences: Snow & Thunderstorms
  • Location: Wirral, Merseyside
  • Popular Post
Posted

ECH1-240.thumb.gif.0962d8d4cebae2f77e1c0a3fc1473fe5.gif

Merry Christmas to one & all, stay safe and have a brilliant day.

From Day 10.

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Mike Poole Maestro

Mike Poole

Posted
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Weather Preferences: Hot, cold!
  • Location: Wantage, Oxon
  • Popular Post
Posted

ECM mean and spread at T240, looks fine to me:

139D09FE-99A0-4138-AD41-99478FE74BCA.thumb.png.f230d8afc3c8fe0e35d11d527b0422d7.pngA6A15EE9-702E-4754-BF2B-A4BBBB4A6D4A.thumb.png.9330807bffaf46f466e90b7cbd307e20.png

May I wish everyone who posts here or reads this thread a merry Christmas and best wishes for a happier (and snowier) 2021 ❄️

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legritter Accomplished

legritter

Posted
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
  • Weather Preferences: action weather
  • Location: winscombe north somerset
Posted

Hi gang ,a big happy Christmas to you all ,ill post later after I've Stuffed the Bird , Fantastic outputs today ,a week of surprises im sure Stella's on me .

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Merry Christmas everyone. ECM gift is 20cm on the ground for some this time next week! 

240D0681-B440-47C9-9B8E-2DDB4D381715.jpeg

Really annoying it is Allergic to cover the South West  you'd think it be in a good spot.. 3rd January great chart except for the South West.. mmm always get warm sectors if there is one.. must be a reason we attract the unattractable 

Edited by Dave Kightley
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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted
1 minute ago, Dave Kightley said:

Really annoying it is Allergic to cover the South West  you'd think it be in a good spot

Its trending South every run I think Somerset/Devon could be the sweet spot on Monday. With showers anywhere in the UK as that Cheshire gap ramps up.

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Fozfoster Seasoned

Fozfoster

Posted
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
  • Weather Preferences: WHITE GOLD
  • Location: warwick 74m. asl
Posted
28 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Merry Christmas everyone. ECM gift is 20cm on the ground for some this time next week! 

240D0681-B440-47C9-9B8E-2DDB4D381715.jpeg

Oh well that little grey spot under Birmingham is me !!!but as Steve says things could change slightly happy Christmas everyone

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted
2 minutes ago, snowangel32 said:

Its trending South every run I think Somerset/Devon could be the sweet spot on Monday. With showers anywhere in the UK as that Cheshire gap ramps up.

Hopefully. UKV Yesterday update didn't suggest rain unlike BBC forecasts recently  that is a start

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snowangel32 Rising Star

snowangel32

Posted
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy snow, Thunder storms and lightning
  • Location: Oldbury, West midlands
Posted
4 minutes ago, Fozfoster said:

Oh well that little grey spot under Birmingham is me !!!but as Steve says things could change slightly happy Christmas everyone

Yep from our imby perspective its a sugar dusting on this run but just watch the streamers start to be modeled soon.

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted (edited)

I have seen a matrix of all low tracks / precip areas for 28th and right now Wales, the Midlands and the M4 corridor is favoured for the precip early 28th. Presence of lower, yet significanf probabilities elsewhere indicating room for adjustment.

Edited by Kasim Awan
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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted
38 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Merry Christmas everyone. ECM gift is 20cm on the ground for some this time next week! 

240D0681-B440-47C9-9B8E-2DDB4D381715.jpeg

Sweet. I am under that 20cm. We will see tho.

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Premiere Neige Community Regular

Premiere Neige

Posted
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, severe frost, freezing fog and summer sunshine
  • Location: Wath upon Dearne, Rotherham
Posted
12 minutes ago, Dave Kightley said:

Really annoying it is Allergic to cover the South West  you'd think it be in a good spot.. 3rd January great chart except for the South West.. mmm always get warm sectors if there is one.. must be a reason we attract the unattractable 

That's not true! It manages to avoid the whole of Yorkshire as well.....particularly the bit where I live!

Luckily it's over a week away so subject to change....

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Chesil View Accomplished

Chesil View

Posted
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
  • Weather Preferences: Snowfall
  • Location: Wyke regis overlooking Chesil beach.
Posted

A very happy Xmas to all fellow forum members. 

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Kasim Awan Maestro

Kasim Awan

Posted
Posted

Btw there is currently a split UKMO/Arpege favour a more north easterly track hitting the North Mids / N Eng - the rest further south affecting the areas noted above. Both these tracks are viable however I tend to favour a middleground option in these occassions, so through the Mids..

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Godber 1 Contributor

Godber 1

Posted
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Extremes, especially heavy snow.
  • Location: binley, 83 metres asl.
Posted
1 hour ago, northwestsnow said:

STUNNING outputs this morning...

I'm so happy possibly every post I make today would  be ramptastic ...

So I will sit back and enjoy the input of others today...

EC is just beautiful ...

Merry Christmas to everyone on this superb forum. I'm pretty certain most of us will see snow before the end of the year, just how much is anybodys guess?  Loving the word RAMPTASTIC.

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