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Model Output Discussion - Christmas and New Year

BlueHedgehog074

By BlueHedgehog074
in Forecast Model Discussion

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sorepaw1 Rising Star

sorepaw1

Posted
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: All seasons veteran of the 1981 winter
  • Location: Remote North Yorkshire 474ft ASL
  • Popular Post
Posted

Merry Christmas everyone it's snowing here quite heavy

Officially a white Christmas here in North Yorkshire 

Let the next 10 days bring lots more 

00z soon.

20201225_040050.jpg

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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted (edited)
32 minutes ago, Bartlett High said:

This doesn't look good to  me!

Screenshot_20201225-045028_Samsung Internet.jpg

I believe it is a slider basically a repeat of the pattern this weekend continuing.. not as good for colder but still cold way out until 6th Jan at least with snow chances still.. good but not ?? It's a lot different then last run.. it's Christmas Day historically a bad day for cold weather output. As it is very different, easy erodes the Greenland Heights and doesn't show what we want.. it probably is not correct you see.. 

I prefer undercuts rather then sliders as I live in the South West preferably but it will give snow somewhere that slider maybe a lot!! Hmm long term I can't see any mild weather for a long time at the min! Very unusual feelings towards the way the weather is heading over the next month

Edited by Dave Kightley
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Dave Kightley Enthusiast

Dave Kightley

Posted
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
  • Weather Preferences: Channel low = Heavy snow
  • Location: Wincanton,Somerset
Posted

Gfs is basically in repeat with Greenland Heights never really getting going before the next slider.. cold not never gets colder through out the run.. sliders taking into account other then 850s etc with a more expert view look at it and go widespread snow but my view is it be marginal at this stage.. nothing mild anyway close on that output though

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)

Merry Christmas all. T144 -T168. Is still the time where we see if we get a decent Greenland high. Compared to previous output gfs has given us socks when it was showing more. Now they are nice socks and there is still potential at T144. Not sure which way Ukmo would go from T144 but looks ok to me. GEM is good. 
 

T144 ECM added.

 

Have a fun day.

EACAF31C-645D-4A92-A387-51F930A31DC2.gif

76E3C546-881B-4025-943B-902FEDFD022F.png

D838C20F-3262-439A-AA3D-160D850366C5.png

Edited by That ECM
Added ECM T144 for comparison.
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted

Icon and ecm more interest in snaww start of next week (a quick look IMBY and better agreement between the 2 and a bit more abundant, possibly in the reliable and of course subject to change) than GFS. 

Curious to see how the later GFS runs compare today, no panic! 

Merry Christmas! 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted
2 minutes ago, Griff said:

Icon and ecm more interest in snaww start of next week (a quick look IMBY and better agreement between the 2 and a bit more abundant, possibly in the reliable and of course subject to change) than GFS. 

Curious to see how the later GFS runs compare today, no panic! 

Merry Christmas! 

All the kids are still asleep So I can still view the output. No panic from me either. ECM has T144 - T192 majority of UK under -5 850’s.

483B4E0E-765A-4868-BCAB-D6A1DB289F16.png

B8A934F1-1522-4848-A841-0CD067E1DF5B.png

4DB2CDFA-72D3-48C1-ACF7-883F91070815.png

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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted (edited)
28 minutes ago, That ECM said:

Merry Christmas all. T144 -T168. Is still the time where we see if we get a decent Greenland high. Compared to previous output gfs has given us socks when it was showing more. Now they are nice socks and there is still potential at T144. Not sure which way Ukmo would go from T144 but looks ok to me. GEM is good. 
 

T144 ECM added.

 

Have a fun day.

EACAF31C-645D-4A92-A387-51F930A31DC2.gif

76E3C546-881B-4025-943B-902FEDFD022F.png

D838C20F-3262-439A-AA3D-160D850366C5.png

GEM 00z reminds me a bit of last night's GFS pub run

Edited by Griff
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mulzy Accomplished

mulzy

Posted
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
  • Location: Raynes Park, London SW20
Posted

Just for fun but the ECM is quite a snowy run for areas that are usually not favourable...

@Tim Bland will post the ECM snow depth maps I guess!

 

 

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That ECM Maestro

That ECM

Posted
  • Location: Bournemouth
  • Weather Preferences: Dry mild or snow winter. Hot and humid summer.
  • Location: Bournemouth
Posted (edited)
5 minutes ago, mulzy said:

Just for fun but the ECM is quite a snowy run for areas that are usually not favourable...

@Tim Bland will post the ECM snow depth maps I guess!

 

 

Maybe a bit IMBY

56A2405D-F3E2-4A91-92E5-1CF66732F595.jpeg
 

T216 GFS and ECM FI starts at T144.

3B913983-DE74-4D74-B550-FBBF15A2FE4C.png

ED27AD75-FAE1-4883-94FC-A7ADF9006C9B.png

Edited by That ECM
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted

Ecm dressed up in a santa hat playing good cop in FI, not that anything beyond the reliable can be taken too seriously, but a good reminder of where blocking has been signalled into the new year. I'd buy that in the January sales... 

 

ECH1-216.gif

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KTtom Experienced

KTtom

Posted
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
  • Location: Aberporth S W Wales
Posted

A day 10 synoptic stunner from ECM....Its Christmas day, im not mentioning uppers..no, stop it....press the blummin submit button.....ahhh

ECMOPEU00_240_1-1.png

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philglossop Community Regular

philglossop

Posted
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
  • Weather Preferences: Misty Autumn Mornings, Thunderstorms and snow
  • Location: Efford, Plymouth
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Day 10 ..

image.thumb.png.f5af3f6129a79cd5eaacf81ee82c5c80.png

Slider? That's made my Christmas morning! 

Heavy snow for Dartmoor with that 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

STUNNING outputs this morning...

I'm so happy possibly every post I make today would  be ramptastic ...

So I will sit back and enjoy the input of others today...

EC is just beautiful ...

Edited by northwestsnow
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Griff Veteran

Griff

Posted
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
  • Location: South Oxfordshire
Posted
8 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

Anyone able post up snow depth maps please ?

ICO.png WXCHARTS

WWW.WXCHARTS.COM
A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots

 Go crazy

Also download windy app for phone, set you location and use compare models... 

No to be taken too seriously! 

For me it's marginal snow / sleet, which has been flipping between rain and back as we get closer. 

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Biggin Rising Star

Biggin

Posted
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
  • Location: Langley Waterside, Beckenham
Posted

Merry Christmas All. ISS just passed directly overhead in clear skies. Lets see what pressies the models have brought us

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iceman1991 Enthusiast

iceman1991

Posted
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
  • Location: nw hampshire salisbury plain
Posted
6 minutes ago, Griff said:

ICO.png WXCHARTS

WWW.WXCHARTS.COM
A new weather forecast model data viewer for Europe and North America. Clickable forecast and ensemble plots, hourly GFS, ECMWF, ARPEGE and GEFS plots

 Go crazy

Also download windy app for phone, set you location and use compare models... 

No to be taken too seriously! 

For me it's marginal snow / sleet, which has been flipping between rain and back as we get closer. 

Thanks guys

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Radiating Dendrite Experienced

Radiating Dendrite

Posted
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: January 1987 / July 2006
  • Location: Purley, Surrey - 246 Ft ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, iceman1991 said:

How reliable are these Steve ? 

About as reliable as an umbrella with a hole in it.

Nice to look at though.

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